Nico Young 11th?!?

He ran very well. He now has 4th and 11th in NCAA xc this year. The field has been getting better and better. Look at the large # of people who ran sub 30, and especially the large group under 29, which included him. How many years in the NCAA outdoor season have that many under under 29 and 30 on the track? He also just ran hard a week ago against Mantz at 10k regionals, finishing only within 4 seconds of the two-time national xc champ. Had he raced more conservatively last week, he would have finished higher. And of course NAU's focus is on winning team titles, which they've now done 5 out of 6 years in a row.

Just to get a sense for how much he's improved and how strong that field was, here are NCAA 5000m rankings from 2021 prior to regionals supplemented by faster times at NCAAs.

5000 Meters (Men)Top↑

1 Hocker, Cole FR-1 Oregon 13:18.95 NCAAs doubling back from 1500

2 Teare, Cooper JR-3 Oregon 13:12.27 NCAAs

3 Kurgat, Edwin SR-4 Iowa State 13:20.48 Oregon Relays Apr 23, 2021

4 Kiptoo, Wesley SO-2 Iowa State 13:21.02 Oregon Relays Apr 23, 2021

5 Young, Nico FR-1 Northern Arizona 13:24.26 Drake Relays Apr 22, 2021 didn't make NCAA final, so couldn't drop this like the other guys there

6 Herrera, Eduardo SR-4 Colorado 13:24.46 Hayward Premiere Apr 2, 2021

7 Mantz, Conner JR-3 BYU 13:24.78 Hayward Premiere Apr 2, 2021

8 Clinger, Casey FR-1 BYU 13:24.90 Hayward Premiere Apr 2, 2021

9 Garnica, Brandon JR-3 BYU 13:26.62 Hayward Premiere Apr 2, 2021

10 Nur, Abdihamid FR-1 Northern Arizona 13:26.74 Drake Relays Apr 22, 2021 27:47 10000m paced by Young

11 Dever, Patrick SR-4 Tulsa 13:19.85 NCAAs

12 Kioko, Athanas JR-3 Campbell 13:13.47 NCAAS

13 Wildschutt, Adriaan SR-4 Florida State 13:28.97 North Florida Invite Apr 29, 2021

14 Grijalva, Luis JR-3 Northern Arizona 13:13.14 NCAAs

15 Makepeace, Euan SR-4 Butler 13:30.55 Oregon Relays Apr 23, 2021

16 Facioni, Zach SO-2 Wake Forest 13:30.84 ACC Outdoor Track & Field Championships May 13, 2021

17 Ferro, Blaise SR-4 Northern Arizona 13:31.54 Drake Relays Apr 22, 2021

18 Hicks, Charles FR-1 Stanford 13:33.89 NCAAs

19 Meade, Luke JR-3 Arkansas 13:34.70 Hayward Premiere Apr 2, 2021

20 Bedard, Simon JR-3 Butler 13:34.83 Oregon Relays Apr 23, 2021

21 Keane, Barry SO-2 Butler 13:35.00 Oregon Relays Apr 23, 2021

22 Kemboi, Amon JR-3 Arkansas 13:35.22 John McDonnell Invitational Apr 23, 2021

23 Brandt, Robert SR-4 Georgetown 13:19.11 NCAAs

24 Mwaura, James SO-2 Gonzaga 13:36.18 Oregon Relays Apr 23, 2021/13:36.43 NCAAs

25 Dressel, John SR-4 Colorado 13:36.29 Hayward Premiere Apr 2, 2021

26 Parsons, Alek JR-3 Stanford 13:36.52 West Coast Classic - Oregon Apr 17, 2021

27 Ratcliffe, Thomas SR-4 North Carolina 13:20.88 NCAAs

28 Jacobs, Dylan SO-2 Notre Dame 13:37.41 ACC Outdoor Track & Field Championships May 13, 2021

29 Bolger, Callum SO-2 Stanford 13:39.32 West Coast Classic - Oregon Apr 17, 2021

30 Johnsen, Colton JR-3 Washington St. 13:39.54 Pac-12 Track & Field Championships May 14, 2021

31 Kipsang, Eliud FR-1 Alabama 13:39.67 John McDonnell Invitational Apr 23, 2021

32 Kiprop, Vincent SR-4 Alabama 13:40.11 John McDonnell Invitational Apr 23, 2021

33 Beadlescomb, Morgan JR-3 Michigan State 13:21.40 NCAAs (13:40 in rankings pre-regionals)

He is very good. He will have a nice subelite career for a few years after college running 13:15.

This...against Teare, Mantz, Kiyoko, Wildschuut, or Kiptoo, Young isn't at that level. He has yet to be that dominant against big names in cross-country.

So, from the start, I think the upper ceilling for him was somewhere around 5th. I would have ranked him behind Isai Rodriguez and Charlie Hicks and he beat Rodriguez, Herrerra, the Arkansas trio, and Victor Kiprono. I'd actually call that a good day.

Juice Springsteen wrote:

I was also kind of underwhelmed by his performance. Maybe he had some team race BS he had to follow but he should believe he can win every race he enters in the NCAA

Ah yes “team race BS”. Rando poster on Letsrun definitely knows better than the best collegiate coach in the entire country.

CU Buff wrote:

He did run 28:57 for 10k on a XC course. Not shabby at all.

Im suprised no one else latched on this this. Where else has Young ever run sub-29? Maybe the closest he got was that 20-lap pacing job he did for Nur earlier this spring.

Ok7272 wrote:

This...against Teare, Mantz, Kiyoko, Wildschuut, or Kiptoo, Young isn't at that level. He has yet to be that dominant against big names in cross-country.

So, from the start, I think the upper ceilling for him was somewhere around 5th. I would have ranked him behind Isai Rodriguez and Charlie Hicks and he beat Rodriguez, Herrerra, the Arkansas trio, and Victor Kiprono. I'd actually call that a good day.

It is a good day

No one would reasonably argue otherwise.

But perhaps expectations are set too high for Nico.

He was noticably more competitive against mostly the same group in March.

Charlie Hicks and Nico Young seemed to have traded places in fact.

Young was 11th but more telling, the breakaway group at the front was 11 strong and Young basically finished last amount the leaders.

Perhaps he raced too hard at regionals and was overcooked at Nationals

Next fall will be telling but right now, it appears that the biggest obstacle for Nico Young is Charlie Hicks.

If Hicks stays in college for all of his eligibility, then Nico's chances of an xc title have dimmed.

Throwing it back to last week's XC Preview podcast episode...he's 19 and some of his competitors were more than 2-3 years older. He should take a two-year "mission" somewhere to silently train like Quenton Cassidy did in "Once A Runner" and then come back. (PS...that's me being sarcastic AF)

Real talk - He's 19. There's plenty of time for him to continue to develop as both an XC and Track runner. Plus this is a good chance to bring up the "there's no TRUE national high school XC race" talk...if someone wins NXN or Foot Locker does that mean they're actually the best in the country when someone who could just as easily vie for that title was running a different race?

just run fast wrote:

A step backwards for him as he was 4th in March. But he didn' t make NCAAs on the track.

I'm not sure if he'll be a great pro or not.

A lot of highly touted freshman often take a dip their 2 year. Also NCAA cross is deep that a few moments of lost concentration can send you from 5th to 12th and this year's race perhaps got out faster than he could handle.

TrackCoach wrote:

just run fast wrote:

A step backwards for him as he was 4th in March. But he didn' t make NCAAs on the track.

I'm not sure if he'll be a great pro or not.

A lot of highly touted freshman often take a dip their 2 year. Also NCAA cross is deep that a few moments of lost concentration can send you from 5th to 12th and this year's race perhaps got out faster than he could handle.

This is also a 'true' cross country season following track, where the break was short and the kid had to giddy up back on the pony. March's final was at the end of a long build-up. While this doesn't explain how the 10 gents in front managed, maybe two cross country championships sandwiching an outdoor track season and Olympic Trials in 14 months was a bit too much on the kid.

Ok7272 wrote:

This...against Teare, Mantz, Kiyoko, Wildschuut, or Kiptoo, Young isn't at that level. He has yet to be that dominant against big names in cross-country.

So, from the start, I think the upper ceilling for him was somewhere around 5th. I would have ranked him behind Isai Rodriguez and Charlie Hicks and he beat Rodriguez, Herrerra, the Arkansas trio, and Victor Kiprono. I'd actually call that a good day.

He is 3, 5, 7, 4, and ?? years younger than them.

How many future subelites run 4th at NCAA and 13:24 as a freshman?

Not many because most end up getting a job after college because there is no money in running unless you can beak 13. But even so, he wasn't 4th as a freshman. Some teams did not compete and some did both indoor and XC. So he finished 11th as a sophomore. Here is a list of the 10-11-12 finishers from 2017-2018-2019. Jonathan Green, Emanuel Roudolff, Sean Tobin, Conner Mantz, Ryan Forsyth, Alfred Chelanga, Jaret Carpenter, Patrick Dever, Kyle Mau. How much money are those guys earning?

Bumping this to get someone to research the contracts of those 9 guys so that we get an idea how many millions Youg can expect to get. It has to be at least $5M per year.

zvcxzvxc wrote:

How many future subelites run 4th at NCAA and 13:24 as a freshman?

The real question is how many fat idiots are on Letsrun not capable of breaking 5:00 in the 1600m that think 18 year old kids that qualify to the Olympic Trials and make it to the finals in the worst of conditions are actually sub elites. Would somebody even explain what that means? Sub elite. Does that mean college athletes that run 13:45 are average? And athletes that run 14:00 suck? Is so, this crowd is getting tougher.

rid the house wrote:

Not many because most end up getting a job after college because there is no money in running unless you can beak 13. But even so, he wasn't 4th as a freshman. Some teams did not compete and some did both indoor and XC. So he finished 11th as a sophomore. Here is a list of the 10-11-12 finishers from 2017-2018-2019. Jonathan Green, Emanuel Roudolff, Sean Tobin, Conner Mantz, Ryan Forsyth, Alfred Chelanga, Jaret Carpenter, Patrick Dever, Kyle Mau. How much money are those guys earning?

I know you think you just owned people but : 1- how many of those above were sophomores? 2- how many of them had already run 13.24 as a frosh, 3- how many of them ran for a title winning team which adds pressure as cannot afford to blow up.

I would say he will be down to 13.10-15/27.30 next summer. But more importantly I can see him running Ryan hall times in the half and the marathon. So…. Not quite 5m a year but he’ll get a good contract in 2/3 years when done at NAU.

Facts always seem to upset Letsrun posters. Several threads right now are dealing with age. Many world records have been set by 19 year olds. Many have been set by 20 year olds. So going by facts instead of speculation, all we have right now is the PR that Young ran which is 30 seconds slower than world class guys who are or were the same age. Speculating that he will run xx time is just that, speculation.

For the guy who doesn't know what a subelite is, it is a term used to describe somebody who is on a small sponsorship but has to work a real job in order to survive. Elite Americans are typically in the range of 13:10 and under. Sub elites are typically around 13:15-13:30.

subelite123 wrote:

He's still technically a freshman. Adaption to heavier workloads take time. In two years he's going to be massacring the entire ncaa.

In the snow? Doubtful. I wish him well.

nitrogen flamebum wrote:

CU Buff wrote:

He did run 28:57 for 10k on a XC course. Not shabby at all.

Im suprised no one else latched on this this. Where else has Young ever run sub-29? Maybe the closest he got was that 20-lap pacing job he did for Nur earlier this spring.

He could have undoubtly run under 28:00 last spring. 13:24 is actually pretty fast and is equivalent to about 27:55.