Cincy got shafted by the CFP Committee

Sorry 2 of 4….Michigan losing to Iowa added to the list.

My prediction for Tuesday’s rankings (assuming BYU beats USC, I'm not staying up to watch it)

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Alabama

4. Cincinnati

5. Oklahoma State

6. Notre Dame

7. Ohio State

8. Baylor

9. Ole Miss

10. Oregon

11. Michigan State

12. Oklahoma

13. BYU

14. Iowa

15. Pittsburgh

16. Wake Forest

17. Utah

18. North Carolina State

19. San Diego State

20. Clemson

21. Wisconsin

22. Houston

23. Arkansas

24. Texas A&M

25. Louisiana

Things are clearing up.

In no matter what:

Georgia

Win next week and you’re in:

Michigan

Alabama

Cincinnati

Need help:

Ok State

Notre Dame

Baylor

If OK State wins 50-0 and Cincinnati wins 10-9, OK State is in. If Michigan wins 10-9, maybe ND leaps them.

This is spot on.

The CFP has been around for seven seasons. Some food for thought:

1. Of the 28 teams selected, 24 won their conference championship and two were not in a conference (Notre Dame twice). Only Ohio State in 2016 and Alabama in 2017 were not conference champions. The selection committee seems to put a lot of weight on winning the conference. In 2014, TCU was #3 but did not have a conference championship game. They won their final regular season game that weekend 55-3 and dropped to #6 in the rankings.

2. A two-loss team has never made the CFP. There have been 11 undefeated teams and 17 one-loss teams.

3. A non-Power Five conference team has never made the CFP.

4. Only one team ranked #6 going into the conference championship weekend ever made the CFP. Oklahoma jumped from #6 to #4 in 2019 after winning the Big XII Championship Game and both Utah and Georgia lost. Teams ranked #5 that have made it in are Ohio State (2014), Michigan State (2015), Alabama (2017), and Oklahoma (2018). If a team is not in the top-5 on Tuesday, they are almost certainly out of contention.

5. The top ranked teams this year are for the most part “newbies” to the CFP. Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State have zero appearances while Georgia has only one. Alabama has six appearances.

Have to wait and see how the CFP rankings look on Tuesday but the AP and Coaches Polls are out.

AP

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Cincinnati

4. Alabama

5. Oklahoma State

6. Notre Dame

7. Ohio State

8. Ole Miss

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Michigan State

12. BYU

13. Oklahoma

14. Utah

15. Iowa

16. Houston

17. Pittsburgh

18. Wake Forest

19. San Diego State

20. Louisiana

21. North Carolina State

22. Clemson

23. Arkansas

24. Texas A&M

25. Kentucky

Coaches

1. Georgia

2. Alabama

3. Michigan

4. Cincinnati

5. Oklahoma State

6. Notre Dame

7. Ohio State

8. Ole Miss

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Iowa

13. Michigan State

14. BYU

15. Pittsburgh

16. Houston

17. Utah

18. Wake Forest

19. San Diego State

20. North Carolina State

21. Louisiana

22. Kentucky

23. Texas A&M

24. Clemson

25. Arkansas

Alabama still at 2 in coaches poll. That's a bad sign. 0 points through 3 quarters vs Auburn and a loss to overrated TexAM. No impressive wins. The people in control want Bama in the playoff. These are the same brain types on the selection committee. Don't say I didn't warn ya.

STEVE THE ADDICT^^^^^^""""-""""--'-"--^' wrote:

Alabama still at 2 in coaches poll. That's a bad sign. 0 points through 3 quarters vs Auburn and a loss to overrated TexAM. No impressive wins. The people in control want Bama in the playoff. These are the same brain types on the selection committee. Don't say I didn't warn ya.

Alabama may be overrated. We'll find out for sure when they play Georgia. That said, their win against Ole Miss was absolutely impressive.

Alabama will control their own fate. If they beat Georgia they are in and deservedly so. If they lose, they are out.

Nothing to see there.

RossiCheated wrote:

Alabama will control their own fate. If they beat Georgia they are in and deservedly so. If they lose, they are out.

Nothing to see there.

If GA loses to a so-so Alabama team, do you let then in? You would be talking about a team with basically zero quality wins ( best win is barely beating a clemson team that was lucky to beat GT, BC, SU, and Lousiville and got crushed by pitt).

Guaranteed Georgia is in even with a loss to Bama next week. The committee loves their SEC bias.

RossiCheated wrote:

Alabama will control their own fate. If they beat Georgia they are in and deservedly so. If they lose, they are out.

Nothing to see there.

Exactly...and again it's not rocket science. A Bama win and they're in - a loss & go home devastated back to Tuscaloosa. Lol. But...Georgia is an automatic lock - if they get upset they're still no matter what. And how about those Bulldogs? One of the best defenses seen in a long time. 👍

A Michigan win & they're in - a loss & they go home devastated back to Ann Arbor. The same with Cinncinati - beat those Houston Cougars & you have punched your ticket to the final four. 🙌

What's interesting is where is the committee going to rank this week the Fighting Irish & the Cowboys? Most everyone here thinks it's the Cowboys @ #5 with ND @ #6. But I think it'll stay the same with ND @ #5. I don't see how ND can be punished for winning big against Stanford when Okla St squeaked out a win against the Sooners, whom the committee has never respected all year. Lol.

Of course, ND needs some help to get in. They need Okla St to lose & either Cinn, Michigan or Bama to lose. You know all the ND coaches & players will be glued to the TV & phones watching those conference championship games. 👀

Man...this college ball is more exciting than the overrated NFL. 🤙

STEVE THE ADDICT^^^^^^""""-""""--'-"--^' wrote:

Guaranteed Georgia is in even with a loss to Bama next week. The committee loves their SEC bias.

Steve...I'm impressed! - you're getting better by the day! 👌

ESPN's chances to make the playoff

Georgia 99%

Cincinnati 74%

Michigan 72%

Alabama 59%

Oklahoma State 32%

That's garbage. How can Alabama have higher odds than Ok State? And what about Notre Dame. Michigan, Alabama, and Ok State can all lose this week.

Real Dealer wrote:

That's garbage. How can Alabama have higher odds than Ok State?

To this post and others saying Alabama goes home with a loss: Gary Danielson, ESPN talking head and SEC shrill said, "A two loss Alabama team still belongs in the 4 team playoff, especially if those two losses are both to the #1 team. I am not saying they will get in, but they should."

He has no connection to the selection committee but publicly represents ESPN which carries a lot of clout by covering most of the bowl games. In my eyes, if he's right, the biggest issue would be how do you put a two-loss Alabama anywhere but 4th that would necessitate a 3rd AL-GA matchup?

NEW OFFICIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS (November 30)

1. Georgia (12-0): #3 Alabama (11-1) in the SEC Championship Game

2. Michigan (11-1): #13 Iowa (10-2) in Big 10 Championship Game

3. Alabama (11-1): #1 Georgia (12-0) in the SEC Championship Game

4. Cincinnati (12-0): #21 Houston (11-1) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game

5. Oklahoma State (11-1): #9 Baylor (10-2) in the Big XII Championship Game

6. Notre Dame (11-1)

7. Ohio State (10-2)

8. Ole Miss (10-2)

9. Baylor (10-2): #5 Oklahoma State (11-1) in the Big XII Championship Game

10. Oregon (10-2): #17 Utah (9-3) in the Pac-12 Championship Game

11. Michigan State (10-2)

12. BYU (10-2)

13. Iowa (10-2): #2 Michigan (11-1) in Big 10 Championship Game

14. Oklahoma (10-2)

15. Pittsburgh (10-2): #16 Wake Forest (10-2) in the ACC Championship Game

16. Wake Forest (10-2): #15 Pittsburgh (10-2) in the ACC Championship Game

17. Utah (9-3): #10 Oregon (10-2) in the Pac-12 Championship Game

18. North Carolina State (9-3)

19. San Diego State (11-1): Utah State (9-3) in the Mountain West Championship Game

20. Clemson (9-3)

21. Houston (11-1): #4 Cincinnati (12-0) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game

22. Arkansas (8-4)

23. Kentucky (9-3)

24. Louisiana (11-1): Appalachian State (10-2) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game

Kentucky (9-3)

25. Texas A&M (8-4)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Conference USA – UTSA (11-1) versus Western Kentucky (8-4) – Friday 7:00 pm

Pac-12 – #10 Oregon (10-2) versus #17 Utah (9-3) – Friday 8:00 pm

Big XII – #5 Oklahoma State versus: #9 Baylor (10-2) – Saturday 12:00 pm

MAC – Northern Illinois (8-4) versus Kent State (7-5) – Saturday 12:00 pm

Mountain West – #19 San Diego State (11-1) versus Utah State (9-3) – Saturday 3:00 pm

Sun Belt – #24 Louisiana (11-1) versus Appalachian State (10-2) – Saturday 3:30 pm

SEC – #1 Georgia (12-0) versus #3 Alabama (11-1) – Saturday 4:00 pm

American – #4 Cincinnati (12-0) versus #21 Houston (11-1) – Saturday 4:00 pm

Big 10 – #2 Michigan (11-1) versus #13 Iowa (10-2) – Saturday 8:00 pm

ACC – #15 Pitt (10-2) versus #16 Wake Forest (10-2) – Saturday 8:00 pm

* Georgia - In the playoff regardless of if they win or lose

* Michigan - In with a win. In if they lose if two of Alabama, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State also all lose.

* Alabama - In with a win. In if they lose by a small margin to Georgia and also two of Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State also lose.

* Cincinnati - In with a win. Out with a loss.

* Oklahoma State - In with a win and one of Michigan, Alabama, and Cincinnati lose.

* Notre Dame - Out unless at least three of Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State lose.

Ohio State - Out

* Baylor - Needs a miracle; needs to win very impressively over Oklahoma State and Michigan, Alabama, and Cincinnati all need to lose. Even this probably won't be enough.