Gidey is now in shape to run 13:38. How soon until she does? Will she get under 13:30 next year?
Gidey is now in shape to run 13:38. How soon until she does? Will she get under 13:30 next year?
epo giddy wrote:
Gidey is now in shape to run 13:38. How soon until she does? Will she get under 13:30 next year?
No - I don’t think so - that’s way too optimistic. If she were able to run 1338 that would mean that she would be worth 28:16/10,000 m - no woman can run that. I think she can run 1355 and 2850.
She beat Adam Clarke who has run 13:39. The scoring says she is in 13:38 shape. I think it is only a matter of when.
Gotta factor in her endurance profile. If you predict her HM time based solely off her 5000 and 10000m records, you get 1:02:56 under similar conditions. So… MAYBE she could break 14:00 but she’s nowhere near 13:38.
epo giddy wrote:
She beat Adam Clarke who has run 13:39. The scoring says she is in 13:38 shape. I think it is only a matter of when.
You are correct, but the equation does not necessarily work like that. The year Paula won London in 2:15:20 she beat Brits with much faster track times than her.
Gidey is great - but 13:38, highly unlikely. This year, Wanders (best of 13:13), could not run better than just under 14:00 mins
Julien Wanders.
5000 Metres
2013 14:55.91 Koblenz (GER) 15 MAY 2013
2014 14:06.28 Carquefou (FRA) 20 JUN 2014
2015 13:48.21 Oordegem (BEL) 23 MAY 2015
2016 13:50.41 Blankers-Koen Stadion, Hengelo (NED) 22 MAY 2016
2017 13:37.48 Oordegem (BEL) 27 MAY 2017
2018 13:24.79 Olympiastadion, Berlin (GER) 11 AUG 2018
2019 13:13.84 Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne (SUI) 05 JUL 2019
2020 13:34.88 Slottsskogsvallen, Göteborg (SWE) 29 AUG 2020
2021 13:57.61 Stadion Allmend, Luzern (SUI) 29 JUN 2021
Outdoor
10,000 Metres
Performance Place Date
2014 30:05.13 Aichach (GER) 03 MAY 2014
2015 30:10.35 St-Maur (FRA) 29 APR 2015
2016 29:10.17 Maia (POR) 09 APR 2016
2017 28:06.17 Huelva (ESP) 08 APR 2017
2018 28:07.15 Bislett Stadion, Oslo (NOR) 07 JUN 2018
2019 27:17.29 Hengelo (NED) 17 JUL 2019
2021 28:55.29 Olympic Stadium, Tokyo (JPN) 30 JUL 2021
the IAAF charts need to be recalibrated to account for super shoes.
the scoring tables equate performances by how impressive they are, but you cant assume that a person is equally impressive in 2 different disciplines.
Gidey cant run a 13:40 for the same reason Warholm cant run a 43 low. But, she can almost certainly improve on her 5000m wr despite it being her weakest event.
epo giddy wrote:
She beat Adam Clarke who has run 13:39. The scoring says she is in 13:38 shape. I think it is only a matter of when.
That is literally not how that works. The scoring tables arent a vdot chart, theyre not race predictors.
You may think they work that way because the skillsets in any given event is typically largely transferable to the next event up or down in distance, but beyond that it gets wonky and the distinction becomes clear.
OozmaKappa wrote:
epo giddy wrote:
She beat Adam Clarke who has run 13:39. The scoring says she is in 13:38 shape. I think it is only a matter of when.
That is literally not how that works. The scoring tables arent a vdot chart, theyre not race predictors.
You may think they work that way because the skillsets in any given event is typically largely transferable to the next event up or down in distance, but beyond that it gets wonky and the distinction becomes clear.
Daniels says 62:52 is equal to 13:40 and 28:30. (Vdot 77.16). You guys greatly underestimate how good this performance was.
epo giddy. wrote:
OozmaKappa wrote:
That is literally not how that works. The scoring tables arent a vdot chart, theyre not race predictors.
You may think they work that way because the skillsets in any given event is typically largely transferable to the next event up or down in distance, but beyond that it gets wonky and the distinction becomes clear.
Daniels says 62:52 is equal to 13:40 and 28:30. (Vdot 77.16). You guys greatly underestimate how good this performance was.
You greatly overestimate Daniels tables.
I think Gidey, on the roads, is at about Zatopek's PR level (28:54, 13:58). She seems too be a high responder to the super shoes, maybe because of her gliding, somewhat bounding stride which activates the rebound effect well.
OozmaKappa wrote:
the scoring tables equate performances by how impressive they are, but you cant assume that a person is equally impressive in 2 different disciplines.
Gidey cant run a 13:40 for the same reason Warholm cant run a 43 low. But, she can almost certainly improve on her 5000m wr despite it being her weakest event.
Gotta take umbrage with this....I do think Warholm is 43 low capable.
Gidey can run 13:50 I'm sure. We though Almaz Ayana was going to run sub 14 several years ago, so this is not exactly unbelievable (there are several women capable of sub 14 right now, obviously Hassan is another)
Peerless Review wrote:
epo giddy. wrote:
Daniels says 62:52 is equal to 13:40 and 28:30. (Vdot 77.16). You guys greatly underestimate how good this performance was.
You greatly overestimate Daniels tables.
LR experts know more than Daniels, based only on gut feel. Sounds right.
Oh Please wrote:
Gotta take umbrage with this....I do think Warholm is 43 low capable.
Warholm cant even break 44. You overestimate his sprinting abilities and underestumate how elite 43 is. 43 low is just completely out of the question.
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