give us more data ... wrote:
If O.P. has been training as a 1500m man who also races 800m, you cannot state if O.P. were to narrowly focus his training on 400m, he cannot sprint 47 1/2 400m. He is still young. In order for O.P. to race in neighborhood of 47 1/2, he cannot solely add weight training, he would have to cease training as a 1500m athlete. O.P. may have his reasons. Mileage may be ruining him.
I would agree with this. With only knowing his PRs and nothing about his training, it is kind of hard to make any predictions for potential 400m times. Maybe he is training like a 4/8 now, so training exclusively for the 400 wouldn't result in much improvement. Or it could be like you said and he is training for 1500, then I would be more optimistic about his potential to improve in the 400.
I had a similar background to the OP at his age while training for 800, and then switched to the 400. I only improved a little bit over the next 2 years. It was disappointing. The reality is that if you lack raw speed, that starts to becoming a limiting factor in the 400. My best 100m was only 11.4, so it was tough to make too much gain in the 400. 50 flat is already within 8% of 100m pace. Thats about the same percentage as the best 400m runners in the world, kind of hard to hope to improve much beyond that.
Op should find out his raw 100m time to help get an idea of his potential.