Front line medical folks: How many COVID-19 deaths were close to dying prio to being infected?

Interesting question, and I don't think any of the multiple MDs in my family, some of whom were *definitely* in the front line, could give you a firm answer. (It's partly dependent on what you mean by "close to dying"--in one sense, aren't we all?) It's practically certain that there had to've been *some*, right? Like someone who was two days away from a fatal heart attack but died of Covid-19 first?

But from what I can see, that would be a tiny percentage of the Covid-19 deaths, because we do know that more Americans than "expected"--that is, based on U.S. death numbers in the last few years, and updated for the country's population growth--have now died EVERY week for the last 19 months.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/dataviz8737/viz/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_10132021/WeeklyExcessDeaths

...Whereas presumably, if Covid-19 mostly killed people who were just about to die anyway, the total number of American deaths in 2020 would not have been very much higher than expected. Instead, nearly half a million more died than would have been expected died that year:

"During January 26, 2020–February 27, 2021, an estimated 545,600–660,200 more persons than expected died in the United States from all causes. The estimated number of excess deaths peaked during the weeks ending April 11, 2020, August 1, 2020, and January 2, 2021. Approximately 75%–88% of excess deaths were directly associated with COVID-19."

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7015a4.htm

8 out of 10 people hospitalized for covid are obese/overweight. People with obesity vs non-obese have a 2-fold higher likelihood of being hospitalized and more than 6-fold higher likelihood of ventilation and more than 6-fold higher death following development of COVID.

Frontline physician in NYC for first wave of pandemic

Worked in the EDs, ICUs, and covid recovery units

All of my covid deaths were not actively dying of anything else, so covid was the obvious cause of death. Many but not all had comorbidities. Average age of patients during that first wave was 50s. Many were obsese, but I also lost a few colleagues (other HCWs) who were not obese, were otherwise healthy, and presumably were exposed to a very high viral load.

People who you hear breathing heavily just to be sitting down won't do well with a virus that attacks lung. Only in America you see so many obese people. But where was science all these years? I guess in bed with pharmaceutical companies to sell them pills.

I am a physician that rounds regularly at independent living, assisted living, and nursing home settings, and I have seen Covid-19 ravage my patient population. Although elderly with the typical underlying medical conditions of the elderly, the vast majority of my patients were of stable health before contracting the virus and subsequently lost their lives, typically within a few weeks or less.

Wuss alert wrote:

8 out of 10 people hospitalized for covid are obese/overweight.

Very believable. And overweight/obese people are probably overrepresented among those hospitalized for heart disease, too. Over 70% of all adult Americans are overweight or obese. Since we know that O/O people are more vulnerable to most diseases (not including anorexia nervosa, I suppose), it's not surprising that that 70% of the population would be 80% of those hospitalized for Covid-19.

And? What's your point? That fat people generally tend to have worse outcomes when they become ill? Well, duh. Despite that vulnerability, many O/O people live with their fatness for several decades.

Except those whose lives are shortened significantly by Covid-19, of course.

Moran alert wrote:

I am a physician that rounds regularly at independent living, assisted living, and nursing home settings, and I have seen Covid-19 ravage my patient population. Although elderly with the typical underlying medical conditions of the elderly, the vast majority of my patients were of stable health before contracting the virus and subsequently lost their lives, typically within a few weeks or less.

This won't matter to covid deniers. They'll carry on with claims that the whole medical profession is complicit in doctoring death certificates and breaking the law so that they can please their democrat masters, or something.

Long Run Nick wrote:

Just curious. Thanks.

Since in nearly all cases the frontline medical folks wouldn't have treated these patients before, they have no way of knowing the answer to your question unless the patient had a near death condition such as advanced terminal cancer. Without COVID people can live for years with high blood pressure or heart disease, or die sooner.

Love how this question was directed towards frontline medical staff specifically, yet majority of people responding are not medical workers who are suddenly armchair experts on covid's clinical course and epidemiology.

I'd like to hear from other frontline medical workers, too.

Thanks.

I am not a medical worker, but I added a valuable and informative link from a reliable source.

You're welcome.

DanM wrote:

I am not a medical worker, but I added a valuable and informative link from a reliable source.

Yes, you did! And I found it both interesting and informative (no snark).

But of course that link didn't directly answer the OP's question, did it? OP wanted to know how many were *close to dying* before they were infected. What your link says is that people with those conditions were more likely to be hospitalized *after* they were infected--which is certainly true, as it is when they contract many other diseases.

So you provided a link that doesn't actually give the OP the info s/he wanted, whereas a couple of medicos have addressed the question fairly directly. Nevertheless, thanks again for the link. (That's sincere, for once.)

Trumps Like A Duck wrote:

Frontline physician in NYC for first wave of pandemic

Worked in the EDs, ICUs, and covid recovery units

All of my covid deaths were not actively dying of anything else, so covid was the obvious cause of death. Many but not all had comorbidities. Average age of patients during that first wave was 50s. Many were obsese, but I also lost a few colleagues (other HCWs) who were not obese, were otherwise healthy, and presumably were exposed to a very high viral load.

I’m a physician on the opposite coast and have seen thousands of COVID-19 patients at this point and I would concur with this. Although in the beginning the average age was a little older and it skewed younger in the second wave for the patients I saw.

As everyone else has mentioned obesity and diabetes are common among those who get ill enough to be hospitalized.

If you were unlucky enough to be both near death (actively getting chemo for malignancy for example) and get covid, then your odds of survival were pretty grim.

Not everyone is obese and has chronic medical issues. I have a patient right now that is in his 30’s, not obese, no medical issues who has been on ECMO for over a month. he was not vaccinated unfortunately. I’ve had a handful of these cases the last few months and they are pretty sad to say the least. Prime of your life to pulmonary cripple needing a lung transplant.

Putting mortality statistics in different light, 12-month mortality at the height of the pandemic is equal to the death rate of 2003-2004 (828 deaths/100000, age adjusted). This directly parallels increased life expectancy over the same period. So the question is, why are people living longer and dying at a slower rate in 2019 than in 2003? We know it is NOT because of health improvements, as the stats for obesity, medication rates, depression and anxiety and any other metric of health have been in decline. The only viable answer is that, compared to twenty years ago, people are living lives of increased disability and unwellness, but are being buoyed along by drugs, surgeries, hospital support, and other measures that extend lifespan, but NOT healthspan. So we have accumulated an entire class of health-marginal people, who would have died prior to about 2000, but are limping along 20 years later. THESE are the people who are sitting ducks for covid-19.

In a sense, covid has moved the clock back to when the extremely frail and obese were already dying as a natural course of life, but who have been propped up by our modern unhealthy-care system. Personally, I would prefer dying a few years early to what I have seen in hospitals and care homes (having buried both of my parents after horrible years of extended illness.

Thanks for sharing your experience.

I also had a fair share of young (20s-30s), healthy patients who were hospitalized, several on ECMO. One 30 year old male resident physician at my hospital was put on ECMO and sadly, ended up dying. Another 35 year old woman who received a double lung transplant. A few 20 somethings who died or ended up in pulmonary rehab.

I did not end up working covid units during the Delta wave (moved back into outpatient work), so it's interesting to hear that perspective and experience. All of my work on covid units was pre-vaccine too, obviously.

I am also a medical worker who has directly cared for COVID patients since the beginning of the pandemic. Most who have died had comorbidities but would not have been expected to die anytime soon would they not have had COVID. I would guess most had their life shorted by an average of 10-15 years. Some less, some much more.

Wuss alert wrote:

8 out of 10 people hospitalized for covid are obese/overweight. People with obesity vs non-obese have a 2-fold higher likelihood of being hospitalized and more than 6-fold higher likelihood of ventilation and more than 6-fold higher death following development of COVID.

7 out of 10 people in the US are obese/overweight, so this is no surprise.

The more relevant and current question is what is it like to hold your unvaccinated and previously healthy 45 year old spouse in your arms while their organs fail. Or how to explain why it is too late to vaccinate someone's dying mother or father.