Yes. Which of the the 5 guys listed above did Webb have faster PRs than, when he was a high school senior? And these guys were outside of 200th in a year when some teams didn't even compete. The last real Championship was in 2019. The 200th guy was Klau with PRs of 7:51 and 13:57. If I told you that a 7:51/13:57 guy was going to finish 200th this year, you wouldn't believe me.
It would be tough, but I think they could do it on a good day. It's also early in the season, so you have to factor they could be better in the next month.
The average of their 5k times would be equivalent to a 30:30 10k. I don't think all guys will translate their 5k success directly to the 10k, so I would think a 31:00 average would be reasonable on Terra Haute. In 2018 (I use that year because 2019 was slow with sh!tty conditions and 2020 didn't have all teams) that average would have placed them 23rd. I don't think its unreasonable at all for them to score somewhere between 20th-30th on a good day. Especially considering they just had four sub 15's in freaking October!
NP could manage this.
Get the team to a regional. Run the course immediately upon the regional race finishing.
Terre haute is a much slower course than the California courses. I would put their average probably closer to 32 minutes
NCAA-HS wrote:
Aouita 84 wrote:
No, they wouldn't. You're completely missing the point. You're assuming too much, yes maybe their freshman year in college but not their senior year in high school.
As someone posted earlier, there's a BIG difference between high school and college, not to mention D-1 college. A lot of growth and maturity happens in the 10 months between high school and college. You may see a few elite high schoolers earn All-American honors their freshman year in college (Top 50), but the majority fall off due to the increased workload and the 10k race distance. It's a HUGE transition for most and if you have not been through it it's difficult to understand. There have been a lot of great high school runners who have struggled their first couple of years in college, some adjust and run well but MANY don't.
Enjoy NP for what they're doing now, but don't insult a D-1 collegiate program with hypothetical scenarios.
Don't insult NP. Most DI coaches couldn't do what NP is doing and yes they would go to NCAA's , just not finish in the top as a team.
Who insulted NP? Great team and a great coach.
Now, let me tune you up a bit little man. First off, you're most likely an honorable mention high school NP fanboy, which is fine. Unfortunately, AGAIN you're missing the point. The simple fact is (if you read my post), the transition from high school to college, especially D-1 is massive. Even D-2 or D-3 require substantial adjustment. Simply put, you're doubling the race distance from 5K to 10K, (that's 3.1mi to 6.2mi in case you didn't know). I'm guessing this is over your head, so go out to your high school X-C course and run a 5K all out, then take a 10 min rest, then go run another 5K all out and compare times. You would be LUCKY to finish the second 5K, let alone match or negative split, and that's with 10 minutes rest between! Do you really think any elite high school runner can do this, let alone FIVE?
Finally, what does this mean?
Most DI coaches couldn't do what NP is doing and yes they would go to NCAA's , just not finish in the top as a team.[/quote]
"Just not finish in the top as a team"? What top? When you're at the bottom everything is "in the top".
Go back to studying for the SAT and good luck in you're league x-c meet...little man.
Aouita 84,
Good luck being an a$$hole.
Crow-Magnon wrote:
Aouita 84,
Good luck being an a$$hole.
Uh Oh!!!
Another NP fanboy. Did I offend you and your honorable mention teammate?
And I don't need luck being an A**hole, It's a gift.
28:32.7 Rudy Chapa (Hammond, Indiana) 1976
28:55.0 Eric Hulst (Laguna Beach, California) 1976
29:06.8 *Bill McChesney (South, Eugene, Oregon) 1976
29:09.4 ————Chapa 1976
29:09.56 Galen Rupp (Central Catholic, Portland, Oregon) 2004
29:11.0 ————*Chapa 1975
29:11.1 ————*Hulst 1975
29:17.6 Gerry Lindgren (Rogers, Spokane, Washington) 1964
29:27.2 ————**McChesney 1975
29:30.6 ————Hulst 1976
**10 performances by 5 performers**
29:32.23 Parker Stinson (Cedar Park, Texas) 2010
These are the top 10 hs 10k times your telling me that Parker Stinson was faster than thier top 4. I figure this group could go 29:00 to 29:50 for a 10 k right now thier 5th guy probably 30:30 to 31:00. Woodward park is not a flat course.
You’re just proving our point…those are track times. On terre haute factor in at least a minute slower
Obviously these NP kids training for 5k wold need to adjust their training to excel at 10k cc. However, all 4 of the NP kids are running about the same times Nico was as a senior. Not long thereafter, Nico finished 4th at NCAA cc. Is there some reason to believe the 4 NP kids could not perform similar to Nico? We will see, Colin Sahlman is joining Nico at NAU.
I ran Terre Huate it's flat and the times usually are only about a 1-1:30 slower than the track so your talking about the first 4 being around 30:00-31:00. The biggest factor is not being used to the cold weather.
jonesy22 wrote:
Obviously these NP kids training for 5k wold need to adjust their training to excel at 10k cc. However, all 4 of the NP kids are running about the same times Nico was as a senior. Not long thereafter, Nico finished 4th at NCAA cc. Is there some reason to believe the 4 NP kids could not perform similar to Nico? We will see, Colin Sahlman is joining Nico at NAU.
By “not long thereafter”, you mean about 15 months after the end of HS senior year XC, right? So does that mean they could do it in 15 months from now?
I think they might perform similarly given an effective period to train
In Nico's recent interview, he said it took him months to acclimate to the altitude and I think the different training takes quite a bit of time too.
People are comparing NP's recent times at Woodward to Nico's time there and extrapolating to say since Nico finished 4th in NCAAs therefore the current NP team could be competitive in NCAAs at a 10k race. The 10k is an entirely different beast than the 5k and you can't assume that since someone ran a somewhat similar 5k time as Nico did at Woodward they would run anywhere near a similar time as Nico did in the 10k NCAA championships.
Look at Leo Daschbach, runner-up to Nico at Woodward finishing a little more than a second behind Nico with a 14:30 time that was significantly ahead of all but Sahlman who beat him by a second. Where did Daschbach finish in the NCAA championships last year? In 199th place with a time of 32:49....a lot closer to DFL than to Nico's 4th place.
Great catch. And that was after 15 months also which means he would have been dead last in high school. Nico Young finished high in the NCAA at the time of being a 13:24 5k runner. He is a completely different runner now. NP wouldn't finish top 50 right now if they lined up with the top 100 college teams over 10k XC. Most of the guys would crash and burn after going out in 14:30 for the first 5k.
Leo Daschbach is a worse runner now than he was in highschool so it really isn't a good comparison. He broke 4 mins in highschool but was running 3:47 for 1500s in college . Also some runners just suck at 10 k cross country. It's alot easier to get worse in college than better. I have seen good highschool runners suck in college comparatively to high school and some really excel.
OC4 wrote:
People are comparing NP's recent times at Woodward to Nico's time there and extrapolating to say since Nico finished 4th in NCAAs therefore the current NP team could be competitive in NCAAs at a 10k race. The 10k is an entirely different beast than the 5k and you can't assume that since someone ran a somewhat similar 5k time as Nico did at Woodward they would run anywhere near a similar time as Nico did in the 10k NCAA championships.
Look at Leo Daschbach, runner-up to Nico at Woodward finishing a little more than a second behind Nico with a 14:30 time that was significantly ahead of all but Sahlman who beat him by a second. Where did Daschbach finish in the NCAA championships last year? In 199th place with a time of 32:49....a lot closer to DFL than to Nico's 4th place.
It's easy to see that Newbury Park runners will be better then Leo Daschbach. Just look at them run. Not hard to see this
OC4 wrote:
People are comparing NP's recent times at Woodward to Nico's time there and extrapolating to say since Nico finished 4th in NCAAs therefore the current NP team could be competitive in NCAAs at a 10k race. The 10k is an entirely different beast than the 5k and you can't assume that since someone ran a somewhat similar 5k time as Nico did at Woodward they would run anywhere near a similar time as Nico did in the 10k NCAA championships.
Look at Leo Daschbach, runner-up to Nico at Woodward finishing a little more than a second behind Nico with a 14:30 time that was significantly ahead of all but Sahlman who beat him by a second. Where did Daschbach finish in the NCAA championships last year? In 199th place with a time of 32:49....a lot closer to DFL than to Nico's 4th place.
As I previously posted, one year and or 15 months is a considerable amount of time to acclimate to increased training mileage and the NCAA 10k cross country race distance (8k for most of the season). Don't forget, there is a substantial mental aspect to this as well. I believe the argument here is that if you take the NP top 5 and drop them into an NCAA Regional Championship race today, they would beat the majority of teams and qualify for NCAA's?. All five runners would have to survive the 10k distance (cross country) of which they've NEVER RACED and perform at their current 5k fitness (Sub 15:00min) two times over. Seriously? These kids are currently "Maxed Out" at 5k, what makes you think they can add another 5k at the same pace?
I appreciate the wishful thinking, and again, this group of NP runners is great, but could not currently contend for an NCAA Championship berth. I'm willing to bet that only 2 of the top 5 will be NCAA D-1 cross-country All-Americans next year. The collegiate cross-country season is no joke, and racing 10k cross-country is freakin' tough, especially your first year.
Most posters seem to be more interested in high school running and female running than elite D1 competition. I believe that most posters are former D3 runners who argue every year that D3 guys are as fast as D1 guys. There are many D1 teams with faster PRs than NP who will not qualify.