Could Newbury Park qualify for NCAA's

NCAA-HS wrote:

Jon James is really stubborn wrote:

You don't seem to understand how much people improve in college. 14:24 guys are not competitive in college.

NP's top 4 could all be well under 14min in the 5000m in the track.

Why is everyone talking about track times? I thought this discussion was about XC? Why does it matter if they’re top 4 would be under 14? Is XC a 5k track race now? When did that happen?

Do you have a better method for comparison? We know that high school cross country runners break 15 minutes but show up to footlocker regional and finish 50th. Courses are not comparable.

ared wrote:

NCAA-HS wrote:

NP's top 4 could all be well under 14min in the 5000m in the track.

Why is everyone talking about track times? I thought this discussion was about XC? Why does it matter if they’re top 4 would be under 14? Is XC a 5k track race now? When did that happen?

Because it can show how fast someone is and not says the course is short or fast.

sweet home West Virginia wrote:

Jon James is really stubborn wrote:

You don't seem to understand how much people improve in college. 14:24 guys are not competitive in college.

14:24 guys at Woodward Park would definitely be competitive in NCAAs. This time is up there with the greatest ever HS performances.

Something like 15 high schoolers have broken 4 in the mile now. Are those times not competitive in college?

People do improve in their first year of college yes. But it is not a magical thing where an athlete would go from 200th place at NCAAs to 4th the following season.

Nico, German, Ritz, LV, Ches, Hunter, and Fisher would all have been all American ncaa in their senior HS season if they had run.

Likewise these guys top 4 would likely all be 75-150 and a 5th man towards the back. I think they make it.

No, they wouldn't. You're completely missing the point. You're assuming too much, yes maybe their freshman year in college but not their senior year in high school.

As someone posted earlier, there's a BIG difference between high school and college, not to mention D-1 college. A lot of growth and maturity happens in the 10 months between high school and college. You may see a few elite high schoolers earn All-American honors their freshman year in college (Top 50), but the majority fall off due to the increased workload and the 10k race distance. It's a HUGE transition for most and if you have not been through it it's difficult to understand. There have been a lot of great high school runners who have struggled their first couple of years in college, some adjust and run well but MANY don't.

Enjoy NP for what they're doing now, but don't insult a D-1 collegiate program with hypothetical scenarios.

Don't insult NP. Most DI coaches couldn't do what NP is doing and yes they would go to NCAA's , just not finish in the top as a team.

sweet home West Virginia wrote:

Jon James is really stubborn wrote:

You don't seem to understand how much people improve in college. 14:24 guys are not competitive in college.

14:24 guys at Woodward Park would definitely be competitive in NCAAs. This time is up there with the greatest ever HS performances.

Something like 15 high schoolers have broken 4 in the mile now. Are those times not competitive in college?

People do improve in their first year of college yes. But it is not a magical thing where an athlete would go from 200th place at NCAAs to 4th the following season.

Nico, German, Ritz, LV, Ches, Hunter, and Fisher would all have been all American ncaa in their senior HS season if they had run.

Likewise these guys top 4 would likely all be 75-150 and a 5th man towards the back. I think they make it.

75-150?? Are you kidding me? How does this make it? They still have to beat one of the following teams in their region: Oregon ,Portland, Stanford, Gonzaga, Washington to say nothing of the rest of the field. Let them enjoy their high school success and stop putting all these absurd hypotheticals on them.

We have one of the top teams in our state. We attended a large out of state meet last week and expected to finish about 10th since we had put up times of about 15:45, 16, 16:10, 16:15, 16:30 on the season. We were shocked to have multiple teams put 5 guys ahead of our 1st. That is what would happen to NP in their NCAA regional.

NCAA-HS wrote:

4:59 wrote:

Have you ever run Div 1 cross country? How high are you? The would not qualify. Since they're in the west regional, they would have to race against Stanford, Oregon, Portland, Gonzaga, Washington etc.... Your telling me they could beat four of these five teams? They would have to at the very least in order to qualify-assuming these are the top 5 teams in the region (USTFCCCA Regional Coaches' Rankings). Yes, it is amazing what the program is doing, no need to get carried away.

One thing I have learned is to NEVER doubt Newbury Park.

Well I guess you haven't learned very much. One thing I have learned is NEVER doubt common sense.

sweet home West Virginia wrote:

Jon James is really stubborn wrote:

You don't seem to understand how much people improve in college. 14:24 guys are not competitive in college.

14:24 guys at Woodward Park would definitely be competitive in NCAAs. This time is up there with the greatest ever HS performances.

Something like 15 high schoolers have broken 4 in the mile now. Are those times not competitive in college?

People do improve in their first year of college yes. But it is not a magical thing where an athlete would go from 200th place at NCAAs to 4th the following season.

Nico, German, Ritz, LV, Ches, Hunter, and Fisher would all have been all American ncaa in their senior HS season if they had run.

Likewise these guys top 4 would likely all be 75-150 and a 5th man towards the back. I think they make it.

I don't think you've ever run at NCAAs. Hunter, Fisher, Nico would not have been AA. German and LV would be on the edge, it would take a great day. Ritz and Ches could probably do it on their best day. Ches might also be on the edge. To get AA you need to be capable of low-28:00s on the track, or be an amazing XC runner relative to your track times. I know of many high 28:00s-low 29:00s runners who had great days and finished outside the top 40 in XC.

The truth is NP would lose to any team that qualifies based on points (at-large teams) and looking at "weak" regions still doesn't help them because you put them in South Central, they're losing to Arkansas and Texas. You put them in Northeast, they're losing to Harvard, Cuse, Iona. And these are minimums, they'll likely lose to more teams. They simply are not capable of qualifying. It doesn't take away from their accomplishments, because they're a high school team and we're talking about D1 colleges. But it simply is not possible for them.

ummmm.... ever heard of Jordan Hassay?

Or how about all Hobbs Kessler? or Alan Webb?

Top HS talent can indeed compete with top college talent?

Also consider

Ingerbritsen

Cheptegei

Barega

Rudisha

Kiplimo

Wanjiru

and all the other high school age runners internationally who have competed with the best at young ages

Webb got smashed by Ritz over 5k XC. Webb would have finished 200th place in the NCAA XC Championship as a senior in HS as would have Kessler. That is the topic. These are the last 5 finishers at the 2021 meet. Looks about like what NP could run and that's about where their guys would finish, last 5.

Savino 14:03 5k, 23:41 8k XC

Comerford 14:04 5k, 29:38 10k

Beucler 14:19 5k

Gallant 14:27

Smith 3:46 1500, 8:03 3k

No they would get eaten alive at NCAAs. They might be a top 50 XC team, maybe could get in from a terrible region if the stars align. But they would probably be 10th place in a real region like mountain or west.

This is just like the Alabama-NFL threads we see every year.

The big difference here is 3 mile compared to 10K. That 5th man at NP would run a 33 low, maybe, at NCAA nationals. Not buying it.

You cite world record holders and Olympic champion types and the two fastest American HS milers of all time (or 2 out of 3) (not to mention 1500 is different than 2 10k’s in a week). So that proves NP could do it?

No, they could not. Going from the 5K to the 10K would be a massive leap for kids of that age. It is unlikely their 5K abilities would translate as well as someone with higher lifetime mileage.

And yes their 5th man would be a massive liability. You would probably see more than 100 guys ahead of their fifth in many regionals. Not to mention 0 room for error if one of the top 4 is not on.

You are all missing the most important factor. As pointed out in multiple threads, they have THE best coach in all of America. I’m not talking about high school, but ANY level. He would have them ready for the distance. It’s a guarantee.

Okay. He will prepare his guy to be the best at 3200 during track so I will expect 4 guys at 8:30 and the 5th at 8:35.

Jon James is really stubborn wrote:

Okay. He will prepare his guy to be the best at 3200 during track so I will expect 4 guys at 8:30 and the 5th at 8:35.

If that’s what he wants to do, consider it done. Shoot, he may decide he wants them to run even faster. It’s his world and we’re just living in it.

Faster than ever wrote:

Webb got smashed by Ritz over 5k XC. Webb would have finished 200th place in the NCAA XC Championship as a senior in HS as would have Kessler. That is the topic. These are the last 5 finishers at the 2021 meet. Looks about like what NP could run and that's about where their guys would finish, last 5.

Savino 14:03 5k, 23:41 8k XC

Comerford 14:04 5k, 29:38 10k

Beucler 14:19 5k

Gallant 14:27

Smith 3:46 1500, 8:03 3k

Webb got 11th at NCAA xc as a true frosh. You think he would have been 200th the yeear before?