Could Newbury Park qualify for NCAA's

Out-of-Wedlock-Danny wrote:

pavement88 wrote:

Let's say on the track right now they could run:

13:50

14:00

14:00

14:05

14:40

Would that group get it done over 10k XC? I don't think it would.

I think OP would include Nico. all NP alumni team:

so:

13.20

13:50

14:00

14:00

14:05

--------

14:40

Why the f*ck would they include Nico???! He has been in college for 2 years. The answer is still no, the 10k is TWICE as long as the high school race distance.

Fallacy. Four relay members will not pr the same day, all running alone with a baton.

Yes, they would qualify , but most likely go to NCAA's and finish in the 20's.

Truly amazing what this program is doing.

sweet home West Virginia wrote:

pavement88 wrote:

Let's say on the track right now they could run:

13:50

14:00

14:00

14:05

14:40

Would that group get it done over 10k XC? I don't think it would.

I would say it’s more like this if everyone ran their best.

13:50

13:55

13:55

13:55

14:25

I think that’s a top 30 team in D1 and probably wins D2 as well.

I heard they are going after the 4xmile recording the spring. I wonder if they will challenge the ncaa record as well as the high school record.

The ncaa record is pretty weak at 16:03. That might be in NP sights. I could see all four of those guys in 4:02 or faster shape.

OMG!!

What is wrong with you people. Huge difference between 5k and 10k, especially in cross country. Maybe they can "challenge" some bottom-dwelling D-2 or D-3 school on a flat 8k (and that's a strong maybe), but no chance at 10k. That being said, I'm not saying these kids aren't good, they clearly are, but let's keep things in check here.

NCAA-HS wrote:

Yes, they would qualify , but most likely go to NCAA's and finish in the 20's.

Truly amazing what this program is doing.

Have you ever run Div 1 cross country? How high are you? The would not qualify. Since they're in the west regional, they would have to race against Stanford, Oregon, Portland, Gonzaga, Washington etc.... Your telling me they could beat four of these five teams? They would have to at the very least in order to qualify-assuming these are the top 5 teams in the region (USTFCCCA Regional Coaches' Rankings). Yes, it is amazing what the program is doing, no need to get carried away.

4:59 wrote:

NCAA-HS wrote:

Yes, they would qualify , but most likely go to NCAA's and finish in the 20's.

Truly amazing what this program is doing.

Have you ever run Div 1 cross country? How high are you? The would not qualify. Since they're in the west regional, they would have to race against Stanford, Oregon, Portland, Gonzaga, Washington etc.... Your telling me they could beat four of these five teams? They would have to at the very least in order to qualify-assuming these are the top 5 teams in the region (USTFCCCA Regional Coaches' Rankings). Yes, it is amazing what the program is doing, no need to get carried away.

One thing I have learned is to NEVER doubt Newbury Park.

Newbury Park is an amazing High School program and today probably a clear step above any other program in the country. However, it is a huge step from being the best High School program to competing at the D1 college level. These assertions get thrown out every once in a while when there is a dominant HS or College team.

A huge amount of hype was made about the 1990 and 1991 UNLV teams being the best basketball team in the country including the NBA, the '91 squad had 3 players picked in the top 12 of the draft but Larry Johnson was the only one who played super well in the NBA and made an all-star team and only twice at that. UNLV may have been the best college team but they would have had a hard time beating even the Denver Nuggets not to mention the Bulls, Pistons, or Lakers.

I agree, no doubt they are an extremely talented and well-coached high school xc program. There is generally a gap between the best high school guys and the talent level in college needed to qualify for xc nationals. There is a big strength and maturity difference between the best 16-18 year old high school boys, and 20-24+ year old D1 college runners. There may be a couple guys on that team talented enough to gut out an all-region level 10K, but I think the age/strength barrier would be way to much to overcome (even in a weak region).

Most of those guys have the potential to be good or better college runners, but collectively they do not have the fitness or experience needed to be successful in a competitive D1 xc 10K. It is fun to think about, but I don't think there is a situation where any high school team would make it based on a 10K qualifying race.

grajd wrote:

NewburyParkFan wrote:

I've heard the discussion is NP the best high school team ever. I think they are and I don't think it's very close. Based on how Nico is doing in college even if they are a bit off him and they would be for sure. I think you can make the argument that they could potentially make it as a team. I know their 5th man is a liability but I think they could potentially pull it off. I don't know what they're putting in the water but it seems to be working.

NCAAs out of a normal region - pobably not.

But hiw about instead a dual against Tinmom Elite? The answer is all day...

Savage truth here.

Let's take the top 6 from the last place team from 2019 as an example - Middle Tennesee State.

Jacob Choge (137th place) - Ran 13:38 weeks after nationals

Kigen Chemadi (171st place)- Ran 13:36.82 weeks after nationals

Hillary Kimaiyo (232nd place) - Ran 4:10 indoor mile 2 months after nationals

Lebo Mosito (245th place)- Ran 14:08 in the spring before XC

Titus Lagat (246th place)- 4:13 mile 1.5 months after nationals

Brian Rono (247th place) - 4:10 mile 1.5 months after nationals

Doing some conversions, this team had the following 5k capabilities at the time of the championships:

13:36

13:38

14:08

14:23

14:23

14:33

Newbury Park is good but couldn't match that.

They should focus on taking down the relay records. If they get 2 of these there is no question they're the best team ever.

4x800m: 7:33.48 (NFHS)

4x1500m: 16:03.7

4x1600m: 16:41.30

4xMile: 17:04.55, 17:01.81 (indoor)

DMR: 9:49.78

The way to start this warpath is obvious. At New Balance Indoors this year, average 4:15 per guy for the mile relay and you take down Loudon Valley's record. This is realistic because the top 4 are all in the 4:0X range, right? So just have fun competing in individual events then hope someone pops a 4:08 to make up for the inevitable 4:22.

Outdoor records are more tricky. Obviously, you have to attempt the 4x1600m at Arcadia in April(?). However, that American Fork team had a ridiculous top 3 so here we're talking about averaging 4:10 per athlete. The ceiling for these kids is so high, it's like do you even bother with a "shut it down if leg 2 is over..." plan, or do you just accept that someone might be able to run near 4 flat to save the effort?

NFHS 4x8 record anchored by Tommy Walnuts is fast. That's like 1:53 per runner. However, you know all these guys are thinking about running sub 4 in high school. So the quarter-mile speed is going to get tuned up no matter what. Why not throw them into an invitational 4x8 prescribing 57/400m pace through 600m and then let the kickers kick? It would feel like a workout thru 600m then if you luck out with 25s or 26s closers you're... there. This won't happen, but interesting to think about.

If you've already nailed the 4x1600m or 4xMile, the emphatic "**** You!" has got to be attempting the DMR record at the Penn Relays or Outdoor nats.

Splits: Richard Smith 3:03.2, Justin Smyser 50.2, Kanda Karmo 1:56.6, Alan Webb 3:59.80

This is the outrageous part. The 1200m is a walk in the park and anyone in this top 4 could run a 3:00 1200m right now, that's not even a question. The 400m here could, of course, be subbed by whatever 48-high kid NBP has sitting around. Or, to flex, we could get a 52 high out of someone in this XC top 4. Taking that 1:56 high to a 1:53 high should be absolutely trivial, then a 4:04 or lower takes it. This is the blueprint for the perfect track season. If it happens like this I demand to be interviewed by Gault.

I agree that the 10k xc would be a challenge, but in terms of 5k speed which is all we have to work with really they are close to making it to NCAAs D1 and could possibly win D2.

Consider these runners times at Woodward Park vs. their times and marks one year later as true freshman.

1. German Fernandez 14:24 - > was in the top 10 at NCAAs in 2008 when he pulled his calf muscle - went on to win NCAAs in the 1500m that year.

2. Nico Young 14:29 -> finished 4th at NCAAs

3. Leo Daschbach 14:31 -> 199th at NCAAs (12th place at Pac 12s is probably better indicator)

4. Ammar Moussa 14:43 - 88th place at NCAAs

5. Ryan Hall 14:50 - 76th place at NCAAs

Just to name a few. NP's average is 14:44. That is in the mix with these runners.

Mathemagics 101 wrote:

I agree that the 10k xc would be a challenge, but in terms of 5k speed which is all we have to work with really they are close to making it to NCAAs D1 and could possibly win D2.

Consider these runners times at Woodward Park vs. their times and marks one year later as true freshman.

1. German Fernandez 14:24 - > was in the top 10 at NCAAs in 2008 when he pulled his calf muscle - went on to win NCAAs in the 1500m that year.

2. Nico Young 14:29 -> finished 4th at NCAAs

3. Leo Daschbach 14:31 -> 199th at NCAAs (12th place at Pac 12s is probably better indicator)

4. Ammar Moussa 14:43 - 88th place at NCAAs

5. Ryan Hall 14:50 - 76th place at NCAAs

Just to name a few. NP's average is 14:44. That is in the mix with these runners.

To be fair, you're naming 3 of the GOAT HS runners in Young, Fernandez, and Hall, all of whom had the benefit of an extra year (in Nico's case more) of training and growing. That said, I think if NP got invited to NCAAs and peaked for it, they would not be in the bottom 5.

This is the same argument that we see many years regarding Alabama football (or Clemson a few years ago), Could they win an NFL game. The answer is the same and while Newbury Park is incredible, that's a big jump to the NCAA's.

You don't seem to understand how much people improve in college. 14:24 guys are not competitive in college.

And not to mention Duke.

In 1991, Duke beat UNLV in the NCAA semi-finals, and then defeated Kansas in the finals.

Moussa also ran 14:05 in HS on the track and they put 4 in front of his time and will probably improve by states.

Erik Mastalir ran 14:57 at Woodward and 14:01 on the track.

Pons ran 14:53 & 14:16.

I know it’s an extremely small sample, but using those 3 touch points we have differences from Woodward to track 5k times of 38, 56, 37. Averaging this out would be 43 seconds per runner.

So loosely, we could’ve been looking at:

13:46

13:50

13:50

14:00

14:32

14:35

5th & 6th likely too far back in this equation. Now, their 6th man has run 8:56 3200 on the track and is recovering from an illness.

If the first 4 guys improve a few ticks and the other guys gets down to the 14:10 range, I think it would be a better debate. They sound essentially be running the same times as Stanford,

Stanford had 10 guys run sub 14.

Jon James is really stubborn wrote:

You don't seem to understand how much people improve in college. 14:24 guys are not competitive in college.

14:24 guys at Woodward Park would definitely be competitive in NCAAs. This time is up there with the greatest ever HS performances.

Something like 15 high schoolers have broken 4 in the mile now. Are those times not competitive in college?

People do improve in their first year of college yes. But it is not a magical thing where an athlete would go from 200th place at NCAAs to 4th the following season.

Nico, German, Ritz, LV, Ches, Hunter, and Fisher would all have been all American ncaa in their senior HS season if they had run.

Likewise these guys top 4 would likely all be 75-150 and a 5th man towards the back. I think they make it.