How would Newbury Park perform if they were competing against collegiate teams?

imaginethis wrote:

Would they make to NCAAs? As DII? DIII? How would they place?

Stemming off of that, what colleges do you think these guys could go to? I would say top 4 could get a spot at a school like NAU, Oregon, Stanford, ND (assuming academics are there), and 5 and 6 are still extremely solid.

The top 4 are running times like Nico Young so of course they would get spots at top schools. But the team would get smoked as a team against collegiate competition.

they'd beat a lot of teams but would get smoked against the best teams in any division

They’d win the Big West. And any other conferences just as weak or weaker. A lot of these teams don’t have more than 1 sub 15 5k guys.

I hope they all go to NAU. 5 Nico level talents plus Nur.

I can't speak for D2 or D3, except that Mines would likely crush them, but I can say for sure they would be destroyed at the D1 level. It's hard to put into words how much better D1 teams are than high school, but I don't even think they could win a single conference meet in the country. The level of concentrated talent in D1 is simply too high. Take a team like UMass Lowell for example. Their top 5:

A 29:06 guy, better than all NBP runners

A 4:04/8:04 guy, also likely better than all NBP runners, but closer

A 14:14 5k guy, now it's more subjective but likely fairly equivalent to NBP's top 4

An 8:53 steepler, same deal

And a 3:47 1500m runner, same deal

This is a team that has never made nationals; barring a freak accident where Iona, Harvard, and Syracuse men's teams all die they will not make it this year; and they may not even win their conference (Stony Brook just beat them at Paul Short). These are the mid-level D1 teams, filled with mostly 4:15-20/9:20-30 high schoolers, as well as a couple "stars" who ran 4:10 or 9:00. And they would likely beat NBP, whether in a dual meet or invitational type race.

That Paul Short meet that these teams just raced? They both scored 200+ points. Four teams scored 77 or less. Those four teams have 5+ guys as good or better than Chris Alfond, the 29:06 guy who I would pick to beat NBP's top 4 any day of the week. And yet they would get wiped by teams like NAU and Notre Dame, who have 5 guys as good or better than THEIR #1.

There are levels to being "good" in the NCAA, and as a former mid-level NCAA runner (3:49 1500), it is incredible how hard it is just to qualify for the NCAA meet, let alone be competitive. Newbury Park is an incredible high school team, likely the greatest of all time, and they hopefully will go on to have great college careers. Maybe one or two may even be an NCAA champion some day, or even an Olympian. But as of now, they are still high school boys, and simply not ready to take on the men of the NCAA.

It's not NBP, it's NP. only two words Newbury Park

I agree with all that. But looking in that same conference are you placing your money on NP or harrford, alba y, UMBC, Maine, NH, Binghamton or vermont? for reference their #1 guy runs 14:46 and the 5th man is a 15:06 guy. I think I am putting my money on the team with 5 sub 9 guys. Outside of the power 5, they would be a competive team. they wouldnt win but would be in the top half of a lot of conferences.

indvidually they are all too slow right now for a top team. those schools are role out 7th men that are sub 14 guys. obviously all those schools will gamble that a sub 850 underclassman will get fast enough to be a contributor.

Looking at Binghamton's roster they seem to be comparable. Schaffer I already knew of and he's a stud who should wipe the floor with the NP guys. Otherwise they've got a 3:47 kid who should be about their level, an 8:17 guy who should be about the same, a guy who just ran 24:30 (no idea how that compares to a Woodbridge time but I remember a top high schooler from Utah tried running an 8k in high school and barely broke 25:00), and then a few 14:30s-14:40s types who would mix it up with NP's 5-6-7. Honestly it's more of a surprise to me that they aren't closer to Stony and UMass, on paper they should be pretty even. Then again, when I ran in the northeast they never had a particularly inspiring XC team, but their track times were usually pretty good (at least Garn and Van Ingen were studs). Pretty much the opposite of Stony Brook and UMass, who as far as I'm aware have never had a sub-4:00 guy but are often top 5 in the region in XC.

The rest of the America East is garbage though and most really shouldn't be D1 schools. Albany has a good track team though. I'm not sure you can really say NP would be a competitive team in D1 if you take out the Power 5 (literally 90% of the good teams). They would be bottom half or at best mid-tier. Incredibly impressive for a high school program, way beyond where any other high school team has ever been, and in 4 years the same group of guys (tack on a 5th year Nico Young for fun) could make up a top tier D1 team, that's definitely true. Just right now, college men are on a totally different level, and being an "average" D1 runner (not truly average, but run-of-the-mill) would put you on the same level as these high school stars. Like I said, I've been there. 3:49, 8:16, 14:22 would make me a fantastic high schooler (those are 4:06 and 8:53 in high school terms). I could probably have been top 5 at NP, mixing it up with them. But I was surrounded by faster runners in the NCAA at all times, and there were legitimately teams that I wouldn't even make the roster if I tried to transfer.

So….last year’s best runner at NP wasn’t the #1 freshman at Nuttycombe

Bro really bookmarked all the newbury NCAA threads waiting and praying on Colin's downfall just for this.

Well, many of you were making ridiculous claims and refused to listen. He wasn't praying for it. He knew.

Yeah and being 20 when you graduate HS is normal🤣Seriously he ran about what we expected. Nobody was thinking that NP was going toe to toe with Stanford. But put out 4 guys running around 24 and a 5th guy sub 25 isn't going to be in the bottom quarter of most conferences.