my two pennies wrote:
The conversation was specifically about the Youngs, but if anything that proves my point. A 3:46/8:07 guy with good speed should be 1:50-1:51. Clearly they are more 5k types than middle distance, which is totally fine, but it means they're unlikely to break 4:00 for the mile this year. I expect the Youngs to run 4:02-4:05, maybe Sahlman will have a shot at sub-4:00. Maybe as seniors they will do it but we haven't really seen how much of an improvement curve these guys have at NBP yet.
Well, what we can see is that:
Colin Sahlman was running 15:42 in XC last November. Now he’s running 14:29 (one second off Nico’s meet record)
Leo Young was running 15:31 last November. Earlier this XC season he broke one of his brother’s course record.
Lex Young was running 15:25. He is now pretty much on par with Colin and Leo.
Aaron Sahlman was running 16:06. He is now running 14:43. Only a few seconds behind the other three…
I would say that they are progressing pretty well.