Over/under Newbury park alumni in Olympics?

Ad Hocker Teare List wrote:

CaNP1 wrote:

One got 9th at the Olympic Trials in the 5000m at 18 years old. It's a good start.

Highest finish by an 18 year old in a distance event since Jim Ryun correct?

Marty Liquori finished second in the 1500 at the 1968 Olympic trials. The trial were in late August and he turned 19 in September, so he was 18 when he made the team.

asdfghj1 wrote:

Panthers vs. the field wrote:

How many Newbury Park alumni will make the Olympics for distance track?

Over/under 1.5?

What's the timeline on this? If it's the 2024 Olympics, 1.5 would be a ridiculous line. Take the under on 0.5.

By 2040. Give this current crop of runners a full career to make it.

All this talk of burnout is a joke. just look at all the best runners in the world. All (or nearly all) have had great success in their teenage years.

Cheptegei

Kiplimo

Ingerbritsen

Kipchoge

Barega

…

Americans typically are way under developed by early 20s while other runners are winning medals at the Olympics.

It doesn't sound like anyone is thinking they won't make it because they will burn out, it's far more likely they won't make it because they aren't going to be good enough. It's a massive leap from running 8:40 for 3200 meters to making an Olympic team. I'd imagine if you took the top three finishers from FL and NXN from the past 10 years, there are fewer Olympians in that group than Olympians who were not in that group. Off the top of my head, of the 21 spots from the 800 through marathon, only Hocker, Fisher and Rupp were in the top 3 of NXN or FL in high school.

D2 - AA wrote:

It doesn't sound like anyone is thinking they won't make it because they will burn out, it's far more likely they won't make it because they aren't going to be good enough. It's a massive leap from running 8:40 for 3200 meters to making an Olympic team. I'd imagine if you took the top three finishers from FL and NXN from the past 10 years, there are fewer Olympians in that group than Olympians who were not in that group. Off the top of my head, of the 21 spots from the 800 through marathon, only Hocker, Fisher and Rupp were in the top 3 of NXN or FL in high school.

Thats because most of our distance guys were in Kenya at the time. Go back and look at 1996-2010 and there are a lot of footlocker names. Look at the top 10 and pretty much everyone is there.

But yes trying to guess who is going from 840 on HS to 810 in 4 years is a guessing game. Heck Nico still needs another 20s to be contender. Some guys just keep improving. Some guys stagnate....

Exactly! That’s why the under .5 is statistically a near can’t miss bet. The NP kids are really good though.

i could see someone from the young family making the olympics at some point. they have like 4 cycles to make due on that. dont know enough about the other guys, but if this includes future classes (which they will surely get the best recruits) then i think the over becomes a better bet.

tqco smell wrote:

Exactly! That’s why the under .5 is statistically a near can’t miss bet. The NP kids are really good though.

That isnt close to a cant miss. Nico is probably a 25% chance. The other 3 are hard to say as they are much younger and need to go much farther. Maybe there odds are 10%. I would definitely bet against any of them making a team but I wouldnt bet much on it.

I’ll bet the under on any number you put out.