How long to run sub-3 marathon starting from near 0?

Edmonton sub 3:07 club wrote:

lurker wrote:

The average male (you appear to be asking a hypothetical, not really about “you”), will not run a 3 hour marathon ever. The median male recreational runner will manage 4:15. A comparison of PRs would be somewhat faster, but still no where close to 3hr mark.

https://runrepeat.com/how-do-you-masure-up-the-runners-percentile-calculator

The average male will never run a marathon ever.

Even the 4:15 Marathoner is above average.

A sub 3 hour Marathoner is more like 3-5% of the top.

Obviously he's talking about the "would/could have been", not "have been". Don't be pedantic.

dat rhombus wrote:

Ernest wrote:

Everyone's different, but it doesn't have to take years.

At 5'10" and 195 pounds, with no running/fitness background, after 4 months training I ran my first marathon in 3:02 - not quite sub 3 on the first try for me, but it's doable.

I‘m gonna take a wild guess that your easy pace wasn‘t 11 min/mile whem you started. Correct me if I‘m wrong, but otherwise there is absolutely ZERO connection b/w you and this guy.

"Correct me if I'm wrong... there is absolutely ZERO connection b/w you and this guy."

OP:

* average male

* 5'10", 180 lb

* currently running 15 mpw @ 11 pace

* guesses <3 marathon might take 3 to 4 years

ME:

* average male

* 5'10", 195 lb

* not running/exercising

* 4 months to 3:02 marathon

Response... "Everyone's different, but it doesn't have to take years."

Ernest wrote:

dat rhombus wrote:

I‘m gonna take a wild guess that your easy pace wasn‘t 11 min/mile whem you started. Correct me if I‘m wrong, but otherwise there is absolutely ZERO connection b/w you and this guy.

"Correct me if I'm wrong... there is absolutely ZERO connection b/w you and this guy."

OP:

* average male

* 5'10", 180 lb

* currently running 15 mpw @ 11 pace

* guesses <3 marathon might take 3 to 4 years

ME:

* average male

* 5'10", 195 lb

* not running/exercising

* 4 months to 3:02 marathon

Response... "Everyone's different, but it doesn't have to take years."

I'm going to guess your daily run pace was a bit faster than his 11min/mile starting out.

I think it comes down to ability. I began running at age 40, ran my fist race a 5 k in 19:50. Even as a newbie I had some top end speed. I was 5' 8" and around 147Ib. Prior to my first Marathon I had run a 1:25 half and a 37 min 10k. My first Marathon was 3:25 and I was training 5 times a week but my mileage was double what I was used to and ended up with an injury which lost me over a month in training. The following year, I consistently increased my mileage and ran sub 36 mins for 10k, and 1:22 for half. Lots of tempos and long runs at a quicker pace and more consistent training doing hilly long runs. My second marathon was 2:57 at Brighton, England which was a bit hilly. You get out what you put in, my last London Marathon I averaged 60 mpw, my average long run pace was in the region of 6:40 per mile in training. That year I was on the verge of running 34 mins for 10k at the age of 46 I ran 2:46 for the marathon and I put this down to improved lactic threshold and long runs at specific paces on hilly routes that built strength. You have to be committed and work pretty hard.

MelRnr wrote:

Ernest wrote:

"Correct me if I'm wrong... there is absolutely ZERO connection b/w you and this guy."

OP:

* average male

* 5'10", 180 lb

* currently running 15 mpw @ 11 pace

* guesses <3 marathon might take 3 to 4 years

ME:

* average male

* 5'10", 195 lb

* not running/exercising

* 4 months to 3:02 marathon

Response... "Everyone's different, but it doesn't have to take years."

I'm going to guess your daily run pace was a bit faster than his 11min/mile starting out.

Right. That's the one salient point. All the rest of that info is only stuff you'd rely on before you find out he was running 11 min/mile. Pretend you are going to bet who can bench press more weight in four months. The guys are similar and have a similar history of lifting. But one guy's initial press is 50 lbs, and the other is 200 lbs. I no longer care that they both have blond hair and are into video games.

social behemoth wrote:

MelRnr wrote:

I'm going to guess your daily run pace was a bit faster than his 11min/mile starting out.

Right. That's the one salient point. All the rest of that info is only stuff you'd rely on before you find out he was running 11 min/mile. Pretend you are going to bet who can bench press more weight in four months. The guys are similar and have a similar history of lifting. But one guy's initial press is 50 lbs, and the other is 200 lbs. I no longer care that they both have blond hair and are into video games.

I log everything. Since it's been asked a few times, here's my actual progression.

Not necessarily what others can/should do... but what I did.

At 35, tried running for the first time. Made it a whole 3 weeks before getting hurt. After healing up, tried again, running my first marathon in 3:02 four months later.

week 1 - 24 mi @ 8:48 - 195 lbs.

week 2 - 27 mi @ 8:36 - 191 lbs.

week 3 - 29 mi @ 9:10 - 187 lbs.

week 4 - 0 mi - 182 lbs.

week 5 - 0 mi - 178 lbs.

week 6 - 30 mi @ 9:06 - 174 lbs.

week 7 - 43 mi @ 8:30 - 169 lbs.

week 8 - 41 mi @ 8:12 - 167 lbs.

week 9 - 57 mi @ 8:24 - 165 lbs.

week 10 - 28 mi @ 8:36 - 164 lbs. - Half Marathon in 1:33

week 11 - 46 mi @ 8:19 - 167 lbs.

week 12 - 42 mi @ 7:30 - 169 lbs.

week 13 - 30 mi @ 8:06 - 168 lbs.

week 14 - 29 mi @ 8:30 - 168 lbs.

week 15 - 36 mi @ 7:35 - 163 lbs - 10K in 38:59

week 16 - 70 mi @ 8:42 - 163 lbs

week 17 - 30 mi @ 6:45 - 163 lbs - Half Marathon in 1:24

week 18 - 38 mi @ 7:12 - 163 lbs

Week 19 - 50 mi @ 8:10 - 163 lbs

Week 20 - 41 mi @ 7:36 - 164 lbs

Week 21 - 43 mi @ 7:12 - 165 lbs - Marathon in 3:02

I was 32 and weighed 220 lbs when I raced my first marathon after three weeks of training. I ran 3:08. And by the way, I was also smoking 20 cigarettes a day.

Eventually, I was able to run 2:15 eight years later.

This place never stops amazing me.

Slim chance that 2 percent of those who are 5-10 and 180 who run 3 miles sometimes at 11m pace could run a sub-3 marathon in 5 years, as long as no injuries.

My Name Is Steve wrote:

I was 32 and weighed 220 lbs when I raced my first marathon after three weeks of training. I ran 3:08. And by the way, I was also smoking 20 cigarettes a day.

Eventually, I was able to run 2:15 eight years later.

Even talentless hacks like me can improve with a little training.

Ran in HS, from '98 to '02, then quit. Did a 5k in 2008 on 13 weeks of training, no more than 36 mpw (peak), average around 25-30. Started off running 2 miles in 19 minutes in July all out, but was able to run 18:33 in October for 5k.

No running until '17, then did a half on 25-30 mpw in 1:45, a year later, up to a peak of 38 in 1:39 flat, and then a full in 3:24 on 37 mpw average (peak of 61), but higher average the last 2 months of 45 mpw.

So a lot of these stories of fast guys improving make sense.