Another marathon estimate please :)

With those PBs you should hit 2:50 if thing do not go bad on race day. The only thing i would worry about is that 80min half marathon is worse then 10k and 5k PB, but i still think you can do it.

I think sub-2:50 is more than appropriate but do agree with the other comment. The 80 (& if it's 80-mid or high) is a little slower than the 5k/10k. Could do well with a little more mileage. You could run sub-2:45 based off of the 5k/10k. I had just a 1:19-high when I ran 2:47 almost a decade ago. Was probably in better shape than 1:19-high & paced the marathon horribly (out in 1:20-mid, stayed on that through 20ish) (feel like I say this on every thread where I reference a marathon in my early-20s).

Sub-3 should be a lock. I like you setting off at 2:50 pace.

Thanks both, really appreciate your comments. That 80 HM was part of a hilly metric marathon I ran during training, pretty comfortable saying I could do better under race conditions, and on the flat!

Hopefully you get a good weather day. 2:50 definitely possible. Find the pace group and hang on. You can always reassess along the way. Congrats on the preparation. Good Luck

Do you know about the Trenara app?

Apart from the training plans it analyzes your (historical) runs and (based on that data) predicts your current fitness & finish times.

Way better than Garmin or other calculators out there.

In any case: breaking 3 won't be an issue. I ran Paris in 2:51 with a 69 HM (both were the last races I ran on 'normal' running shoes). Most important thing is to get your fuelling right. Based on your HM 2h50 seems doable but with little margin for (nutritional) errors. Going out too fast might hurt you in the end - aim for that negative split!

You won’t.

79 HM of course 😅

Chroosen wrote:

Do you know about the Trenara app?

Apart from the training plans it analyzes your (historical) runs and (based on that data) predicts your current fitness & finish times.

Way better than Garmin or other calculators out there.

In any case: breaking 3 won't be an issue. I ran Paris in 2:51 with a 69 HM (both were the last races I ran on 'normal' running shoes). Most important thing is to get your fuelling right. Based on your HM 2h50 seems doable but with little margin for (nutritional) errors. Going out too fast might hurt you in the end - aim for that negative split!

Oh nice, Trenara reckons 2:46!

RobG wrote:

Hi all, apologies for yet another "predict my marathon time" thread. The taper is leading me to overthink things, all advice is appreciated!

Ran a 3:01 Amsterdam in 2019 from approx 30m weekly mileage. PB at this point were (5k, 10k, HM) 18:30, 38, 85.

Running London from a much better base, both prior to starting the training block, and the training block itself. By the time I started training for London this year I'd already reached my total mileage for the whole of 2019. Weekly mileage for this block looks like this: 46,50,44,37,68,64,52,42,65,43,32...and now here we are. PBs now 17:07, 35, 80).

Clearly my primary target is a sub-3,and I'm confident I can get it this time....but I don't want my secondary target to scupper my chances. I'm planning on heading out at 2:50 pace. Thoughts?

Based on your 5k and 10k progression, I think you should be able to get comfortably under 2:50. What shoes are you using?

I was going to stick with the VFs I used for Amsterdam in 2019, but have opted for a pair of Adios Pro 2s

RobG wrote:

I was going to stick with the VFs I used for Amsterdam in 2019, but have opted for a pair of Adios Pro 2s

Cool. Between the Vaporfly and Adios Pro you can't go wrong.

Running London from a much better base, both prior

2:50 is possible, although your low mileage puts that on the very edge of your current capabilities. Going out at 1:25 is an aggressive approach. Hopefully it pays off big, but you're walking the line there. I'd slow it down by at least a minute and aim for a negative split.

Any yeah sub 3 should be a cake walk for you.

The 80 Minute HM is a bit of a concern, combined with your moderate mileage. How have the long runs gone? How many 20+ mile runs? How much of each was at marathon pace?

On another course I'd say go out in 1:26 and look for the negative split, but the downhill in the first half of London maybe makes an even or positive split a viable strategy. You'll also probably have a headwind/crosswind for the final 5 miles which can be hard to deal with when you're fatigued.

In the end, it depends how much it matters to to you to get that 2:50 now. I think you could run 2:52-2:54 very comfortably and feel strong for the next one. 2:50 looks like it could go either way

Fair point, thank you. Long runs have gone very well, though only twice over 20m (many more 18-19s). I've never felt at my limit, and used no additional nutrition. I take your point though, perhaps I should have gone longer a couple more times.

Interesting what you say about London topography, and how negative split may be tricky.....I too fear that headwind for the last 6 miles!

In truth I'd be happy with a 2:52/53, I also use Stryd which should help in keeping my effort constant. The last thing I want to do is blow my chances of a sub 2:55.

Let me help you. It absolutely doesn't matter if you run 2:50 or 3:50. If you can't run faster than 2:10, all you should focus on is having fun and not numbers.

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Let me help you. It absolutely doesn't matter if you run 2:50 or 3:50. If you can't run faster than 2:10, all you should focus on is having fun and not numbers.

I respectfully disagree!

RobG wrote:

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Let me help you. It absolutely doesn't matter if you run 2:50 or 3:50. If you can't run faster than 2:10, all you should focus on is having fun and not numbers.

I respectfully disagree!

Enlighten me please why it would matter if someone runs 2:50 or 3:50? Unless you're elite, you just an "also ran". And in 10 years you will see the ridiculousness of asking for advice on a forum at that level. If you even remember that you ran somewhere.

Having fun is all you can get out of this, so you should go for that. Jog, wave and smile.

Oh don't worry, I'll be smiling and waving too :)