Can I run 2:40 in Chicago 2021?

No.

Based on your information provided, you would be lucky to run sub-1:20 in a half thon. 🤔

I disagree with the other poster; you are not far off, and should certainly run well under 1:20 for the half marathon. However, you are maybe lacking just a touch; I'm not sure you'd be able to do stuff like 4-5 x 5km at 6:00 pace with 1km easy rest?

I wouldn't worry too much about the 10km; you might have under-performed a bit relative to what you can do at longer distances. But sub 2:40 seems a bit optimistic; maybe sub 2:45 is more realistic?

2:45, with great weather conditions in Chicago, will be a much better target - go out ~1:22 and if you have the fitness, you could aim for a slight PR

I don't think sub 240 is going to happen unless you have the race of your life. The only thing that suggests it is even in the realm of possibility is that 12.7 on 9.27. Clearly you have made a ton of progress over the course of the cycle so thats great but agree with the other posters out there that 245 is a more reasonable target.

You know best how to compare your recent training with your 2:42 training. I agree with the others.

The most marathon specific workout was that 10+8+2. After running 10 at 7:22 pace, that second 10 at goal pace really should have been no problem. I suppose if it was 86 degrees, that's a different story. I'd target a first half in 1:23.

How downhill was the 2:42? Hope you don't feel like these responses are piling up on you. You've clearly been putting in some good training. But I would have to agree that sub-2:45 looks right on a flat course with what you've outlined. The 12 miles is strong. Maybe with a taper sub-2:40 pace feels better on race day but that's still less than half the distance. 6:10-6:15 pace through halfway looks right to me. I would want to see something at least 34-mid, if not faster, in a 10k. Guessing you weren't tapered but something under 35 would have me feeling better when looking at your body of work.

If the weather looks amazing then maybe you could plan to be more aggressive. If you get a dew point approaching 60 or over then 2:44 is gonna be challenging enough imo.

I wouldn’t discount anyone’s chances, but setting a PR on 7 weeks of actual training and, apparently, a fairer course, seems like a long shot. The fact that your only race performance is the equivalent of about a 2:45, and that’s probably optimistic because it assumes you’re equally well prepared for both the marathon and 10k, which based on your training volumes doesn’t seem true.

We’re I in your position, I’d be hoping to hold on at 2:45 pace.

No.

I read up until "Only got back into training 9 weeks out from Chicago."

The answer is no.

It was about 480ft net down. And its alright, I'm looking for the no bs answers here, so if you need to be critical, I'll take it.

I've never been one to taper much for races. Before I ran 2:42, I ran another marathon as a training run just 2 weeks prior in 2:47. Just 7 days prior to running 2:42, I ran a 21M long run with 12M @ 6:09.

I want to do one more solid effort this Thursday, so would also love to get an idea of a 2:40 level workout.

Thanks for your feedback. The 4-5 x 5k workout sounds exciting. Not sure if I can do it, but I'm looking to do one last hard effort this Thursday. Maybe I'll give that one a go

I agree with the others, 2:45 sounds like a better goal. Whatever you do though, take it real easy for a few weeks after. That rapid build-up is going to leave you vulnerable to injury, and trying to get back into racing and hard training too soon after a marathon is the most common time to get injured. Then you should be able to crush 2:40 by next spring.

You won’t

New to me username wrote:

I agree with the others, 2:45 sounds like a better goal. Whatever you do though, take it real easy for a few weeks after. That rapid build-up is going to leave you vulnerable to injury, and trying to get back into racing and hard training too soon after a marathon is the most common time to get injured. Then you should be able to crush 2:40 by next spring.

This...2:45 should be reasonable. I learned that you can't have too ambitious goals this season. This happened to me (I originally wanted to BQ at 3:05 but I'm thinking a realistic goal is 3:15 or better now with a 28-week training block under my belt).

Shoot for what you know you're capable of, save some for mile 20 on and then go from there.

Yeah this is solid advice. Whatever you do, take some time off & put together a longer build for next spring or fall. Don't even feel like you have to do the marathon in the spring. Run a fast half. Lower your marathon potential.

480 net downhill is pretty significant. Boston is 300ish but you have to do some climbing from 16-21 when the marathon takes no prisoners. If you're gradually losing 480 over 26.2 that would be perfect for running a little faster than you would on a flat course.

I think sub-2:45 is the right goal. Maybe you feel good on race day & get good weather & can be a bit more aggressive. A 1:22ish 1st half seems right. Bring it home faster if you're having a good one.

Quick update: I ended up running a 2:42:40, basically equalling my PB. The weather was a bit hot (low 70s) with ~80% humidity. Went out in a 1:20:07 half, and just couldn't hold it in the last 5k. Placed 174th overall, and I'm really happy with the amount of fitness I was able to accumulate in the short 8 weeks of training. For others out there, don't limit yourself, you can have a great performance. Although not a PB, I attribute this as my strongest marathon ever. Onwards.

cutulenco wrote:

Quick update: I ended up running a 2:42:40, basically equalling my PB. The weather was a bit hot (low 70s) with ~80% humidity. Went out in a 1:20:07 half, and just couldn't hold it in the last 5k. Placed 174th overall, and I'm really happy with the amount of fitness I was able to accumulate in the short 8 weeks of training. For others out there, don't limit yourself, you can have a great performance. Although not a PB, I attribute this as my strongest marathon ever. Onwards.

Awesome job!!!

cutulenco wrote:

Quick update: I ended up running a 2:42:40, basically equalling my PB. The weather was a bit hot (low 70s) with ~80% humidity. Went out in a 1:20:07 half, and just couldn't hold it in the last 5k. Placed 174th overall, and I'm really happy with the amount of fitness I was able to accumulate in the short 8 weeks of training. For others out there, don't limit yourself, you can have a great performance. Although not a PB, I attribute this as my strongest marathon ever. Onwards.

Dude, that's fantastic. Top-200 at a major is nothing to sneeze at. Looks like you ran a super even race. You lose some crowd support in the back half at Chicago too.

That's worth sub-2:40 for sure. Definitely a PB/strongest marathon effort. Great job. Find yourself something cooler in the spring or fall of 2022. Maybe think about finding a fast half in the winter or spring. Indy 500 Half is solid if you live in the Chicago area and don't feel the need to get in another marathon right away. Could prolly get into the elite field there. Hit a fast half, come back to the marathon, run in the low/mid 2:30s. You're on your way.