maybe... wrote:
dsrunner wrote:
You would lose your house. They'll never run a serious 4x400 or 800 but both have 11 100m speed with a running start.
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You may be right, but I'm not so sure. They are incredibly strength-based and could be running that 52.X second 400m first lap at about ~3 seconds off their PB (say ~49.X sec).
I agree with many others that for Yared, a sub 47 seems completely out of the question.
Chances: 46.X --- 47.X --- 48.X
Jakob 10% --- 50% --- 80%
Filip 5% --- 40% --- 70%
Yared 0% --- 30% --- 70%
49.x open guys split 48s all day long in the relay. Your house is gone.
But the gap between splitting 48 in a really and breaking 47 in an open 400 is huge. Running mid 48s/low 49s (heck the athlete special did that in HS for a guy that is talented but not remotely the best in a given year) is pretty common for 1500m guys. It isnt some rare thing. But things drop off rapidly after that. Some of that is we dont see elite guys doing a lot of 400s(i.e. nobody is paying 25k to see if McSweyn can run 48.9 or 49.9 over 400m) and a lot is that sub 47 is getting pretty fast. One is running a 4:10 type mile. The other is a 3:59.