2600 bro wrote:
rojo wrote:
You are making a brilliant point. I think many things in society are actually like this but people don't realize it as the conclusions are so opposite.
No it's not a good point.
For the vaccine... it's just terrible risk analysis that is equating two small probabilities. This is a common human error, but frankly not that hard to understand and overcome.
The risk of the vaccines are <<< the risk of COVID infection for all age groups. The presence of a risk does not make it prudent to avoid something if the act of avoiding exposes you to far greater risk.
The masking decision falls on more equal probabilities. The cost of wearing a mask during a race (annoying), the risk of COVID transmission outdoors (very slow), and the benefit a mask during a race (unknown).
I don't disagree with anything that you just said. I understand and agree with your risk analysis. But my brilliant point stands 🧐.
Your position is we should always choose the least "risky" option, calculated according to the criteria that you choose. Using this method, you can always justify what you want to do according to some quantitative measurement.
But you do realize that characterizing things as "annoying" and "very low" are qualitative judgements?
I can do the same thing, using my qualitative biases as a foundation, and we can come up with different quantitative results.
I am fully aware, and have mentioned elsewhere in another thread, about how poorly people judge statistics. So I'm aware of those pitfalls, but I disagree that they are so easily overcome.
Not saying that you're wrong, but I think it would be helpful to the discussion to acknowledge the fact that non-zero is non-zero, and that the position you are advocating is based on your personal opinion about what is acceptable. It would also be nice if you acknowledged my right to do so as well. Then, if you are in a position of power, you can say to me "Because I said so!" and leave it up to me to acquiesce or face the consequences.
Cheers