BYU women dominate stanford

bigmig19 wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

Thanks - forgot about that - clearly something amiss with the course measurement

I said she ran low 19s, and she did (and mid 19s)? I didnt say it was at the nationals. These are very very exceptional times for last year, why dismiss them? Just sayin, why try so hard to dismiss her? She was couple sec slower than Donaghue not long after arriving on campus. Would it be some sort of bizarre upset for her to run faster this year than people she was faster than last year? You never know, sometimes you need an additional year after injury to recalibrate, but she has had some eye opening improvement in 2 years. Tuohy was the whole freshman story last year, but Dudek was tracking to be top 3 at nationals probably easily beating KT.

I have in no way dismissed Dudek. In fact, in another thread I wrote the below saying I thought she was expected to be in the top 15. I think if she is healthy she and Heymach are a very strong 1-2. Others in the linked thread have questioned her.

"I have no idea how fit Starliper is this year. But 2019 NXN was a bad race for her. The next week she was barely beat by Dudek at FL, 6 seconds off the 35 year old course record. If she is at full strength she could easily be in top 15 - just as many thought Dudek would be last Spring (not knowing the injury - and where Donaghu was)."

I also wrote this in the same thread

"Dug a little more into the teams, and ahead of the first coaches polls rankings coming out soon I see:

1) BYU - stronger Orton + some improvement across the board - returning champs get the nod

2) NC State - if Tuohy and Clairemonte are stronger and they get a strong 5th out of Shaw/Starliper/Rauber/Quarzo or whoever could be right there with BYU. Assumes Steelman and Chmiel remain strong.

3) Arkansas - a team of Gear, Jolly (nee Morris), Thorvaldson, Hyde and Gray (if she returns) is pretty solid without the Indoor meet just prior

4) Stanford - Heymach and Dudek could be strong 1-2, and Lawson. Jenks, Aragon may improve but still look out of top 3.

5) New Mexico - assumes returners run better than they did in March. If there are strong transferees could move up. Will see at Joe Piane early Oct vs some strong competition.

6) N Carolina - if freshmen Brown and Masciarelli run well they should move up a lot from last year.

7) Michigan State - demonstrated last year they are solid if not great. Could be a little higher but probably not in top 4. Magness placed high at 5,000 Outdoors."

Your suggestion was she would beat Orton which I thought was a stretch - especially this year coming off an injury. Tuohy was hardly the whole freshman story last year as she did not run competitively until February, and then was running pretty mediocre times until she came up with the AA finish at Stillwater (but well behind Donaghu).

I cited the NCAA championship times to give a perspective on what the best have run each year - mid 19s generally. Very clearly the low 19s effort (by many) at the Pac 12 meet was a short course - note how fast the times were vs what they ran in Stillwater.

Is dudeck even running this season? She didn't run outdoor track. So again the idea that she is going to be top 10 or even top 20 is really presumptuous after her and most of her competition in those tune-ups completely bombed at Nationals , and then she was injured and didn't run out door.

Dudeck was injured before Nationals. She already had an issue with her foot before the race started and it got steadily worse during the race. She ended up on crutches. If it wasn't the championship she would not have started the race.

I guess all those other Runners who bomb Nationals had injuries to like Callie Logue, Lawson, Hedberg, bunch of Runners who we're running the same as Dudek or better, in those tune-up races all bomb National so I see no evidence that Dudek was a top 20 Runner

And the fact that she was injured and has missed a ton of time and might not even compete this season means again she is not likely to be a top Runner....

Guy's face it a couple of Fanboys latched onto Dudek has the Second Coming. The same way people did with Sydney massarelli , or Claudia Lane, or Hutchins. But what you do for a few seasons in high school doesn't always translate especially when it's briefly done.

Ezrun wrote:

Guy's face it a couple of Fanboys latched onto Dudek has the Second Coming. The same way people did with Sydney massarelli , or Claudia Lane, or Hutchins. But what you do for a few seasons in high school doesn't always translate especially when it's briefly done.

Quite the opposite. First, she started running in HS late, and won the European nationals and multiple HS titles almost right away. She jumped to College and almost immediately dropped an already HS best by almost a minute (5k) and was running 2-3 sec behind Donaghue at 6k. That my friend is progress and a great transition! Not a HS flash! Who knows what happens from here, she had as serious an injury as you can have. But is she fully recovers, she showed s/o making big leaps in college right off the bat, and has low miles on the legs. (although Im starting to wonder about that SU workload). Maybe next year.

She had about the worst injury you can have as an athlete.

I would agree, Pac 12 was suspect fast. (BTW, how could a PAC12 CHAMPIONSHIP course be short? Who did they hire?)) And yes, she may need a year. But folks seem to ignore her accomplishments and talent in favor of KT to me. Maybe not.

bigmig19 wrote:

She had about the worst injury you can have as an athlete.

Then why was she running it?

She doesn't have a track time at any distance that would put her at the top 75 among College athletes.... tough to judge from what you do in tune up cross country races where the courses might be short

Bottom line is she hasn't put up a track time at any distance that would put her as an elite Runner or even a top 50 or 75 Runner. She won the European Championship with a 9:30 3 k... it's still a nice accomplishment but it's not an elite college-level time

Also she started running as a young girl and ran all four years of high school. She's definitely a talented young Runner that progressed nicely in high school and has a lot of potential but I'm just saying there's nothing to indicate that she would be an elite level College Runner, injury aside, currently maybe in a year or two

xc-fan wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

Just for some perspective, here is the second place finisher who was just behind Orton. Pretty consistent 16:15-20 5K equivalent times. Maybe she has taken a step forward this year, but I don't think this time shows it.

https://www.lacctic.com/runners/24305

Alison Pray

Southern Utah (SR)

LACCTiC Rating: 16:03 (15:58 - 16:09)

She ran this race 20 seconds faster than she did last year.

That would be a nice step forward if equal efforts.

Last year:

OSU Invite: 5th behind Orton, Roe, Frentheway, McArthur.

Battleborn: 11th, six seconds behind Donaghu and Dudek and ahead of Heymach.

Big Sky champs: 3rd, six seconds behind Taryn O'Neil and Summer Allen both top 7 at NCAA.

NCAA: dropped 20 places over the last 2K to finish 50th.

Looks like she has taken a big step forward - 5th today at Joe Piane splitting up NC State who went 3, 6, 8, 9, 12