Boston 2022 Cutoff Prediction Thread

Wait a second, if someone qualified in Sept 2019 they can now use their time TWICE? That is insane.

BAA knows what they are doing and they will cap the field at a smaller number to intentionally exclude some runners.

They are creating an artificial demand because they know it drives up the social media obsession of runners. These are Type A, goal oriented runners, with a lot of money and in some cases weird OCD and anxiety disorders, which make them obsess over who else is qualifying when they are not.

I don't think I'm wrong here but feel free to correct if you know better. If you get one qualifying time it's good for whatever windows it falls under. So sometimes that's for two different years. I ran a BQ on Monday. I'm likely going to pass on 2022 & enter 2023 since it's good for both windows. It is my understanding I can use the time for both races.

I ran a BQ on 10/3. Is that good for both 2022 and 2023? I couldn't figure it out online. I thought the qualifying window for 22 was longer than normal because of covid? I could be entirely incorrect.

AaronG wrote:

I ran a BQ on 10/3. Is that good for both 2022 and 2023? I couldn't figure it out online. I thought the qualifying window for 22 was longer than normal because of covid? I could be entirely incorrect.

"It is anticipated that after the 2021 registration for the 2022 Marathon, qualifying window time periods return to normal. If that turns out to be true, registration for the April 2023 Boston Marathon will take place in September 2022. The qualifying window for the 2023 Marathon will extend from September 1, 2021 until the conclusion of the September, 2022 registration period for the April 2023 race"

AaronG wrote:

I ran a BQ on 10/3. Is that good for both 2022 and 2023? I couldn't figure it out online. I thought the qualifying window for 22 was longer than normal because of covid? I could be entirely incorrect.

"The qualifying window for the 2022 Boston Marathon will be open from September 1, 2019 through the conclusion of the registration period, November 12, 2021. "

Boston 2021 Runner wrote:

[

"The qualifying window for the 2022 Boston Marathon will be open from September 1, 2019 through the conclusion of the registration period, November 12, 2021. "

https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/qualify

So this means two NYC races and two Chicago races (2019 and 2021) which would have produced a lot of qualifiers.

This is so hard to predict. We don't know the field size, the number of international runners who may not want to gamble with losing their registration fee if the border is closed, unvaccinated runners who will not register, many races over the last 18 months either didn't exist or had reduced field sizes, will people feel like it isn't worth the money if they were unemployed for a while and are dealing with the hassles of inflation.

Also remember compared to pre-COVID, approximately an additional 20% of the runners over 40 would have aged up into another 5 year age group so a 1 minute BQ for a 48 year old becomes a 6 minute BQ for a 50 year old or a 1 minute BQ for a 43 year old becomes an 11 minute BQ for a 45 year old. Over 60 the cushion is even larger.

The Boston marathon director said on the AOTR podcast that he’s planning for a full field size in 2022. Given that the window is from Sept 2019-Nov 2021, that does give a fair amount of qualifying opportunities... I’d say it depends more on international travelers + marathon burnout vs. motivation after this fall.

Personally, I just ran my first BQ just 21 seconds under my time (3:30), but I’m not holding my breathe. Only way I’ll get in is if there is no cutoff time at all.

runningbee wrote:

The Boston marathon director said on the AOTR podcast that he’s planning for a full field size in 2022. Given that the window is from Sept 2019-Nov 2021, that does give a fair amount of qualifying opportunities... I’d say it depends more on international travelers + marathon burnout vs. motivation after this fall.

Personally, I just ran my first BQ just 21 seconds under my time (3:30), but I’m not holding my breathe. Only way I’ll get in is if there is no cutoff time at all.

Spoke too soon— seems like it will still be a smaller field size.

I mean we'll see. I'd love to know who the "scientists" are that are seeing any correlation between mass road races and COVID at this point. I guess I'm hopeful that by the time they are really getting into planning COVID is at June levels and they really reconsider the smaller field. Did they see a massive COVID problem emerge after London?

I ran two BQ marathons is 2019 but the Clarence DeMar Marathon run on Sep 29,2019 wasn’t allowed to be used for the 2020 Boston as the cutoff was the week earlier. Crazy to think that the time can be used for 2022. The new age group will make the 2019 BQ time look even better. I suspect a BQ -10min is what it will take.

Why on earth would it take a BQ -10? I don't see how it could possibly be a larger cut off than the ~8 minutes that it took for this week's race. If it's a full field size, it will be a normal cut off.

BAA seems reluctant (or unable because of concerned cities and towns) to announce a return to full field size, which leaves them in a bit of a pickle.

They announced the 2021 race date on Jan. 26, then the restricted field size on March 15. I'm curious if they're going to announce an official field size before 2022 registration on Nov. 8 or announce a "tentative" field size of 20,000 and grant another 10,000 people "TBD" status from the end of registration in November until a final deadline to possibly expand the field size to a traditional number some time in January.

Brian MF Sell wrote:

BAA seems reluctant (or unable because of concerned cities and towns) to announce a return to full field size, which leaves them in a bit of a pickle.

They announced the 2021 race date on Jan. 26, then the restricted field size on March 15. I'm curious if they're going to announce an official field size before 2022 registration on Nov. 8 or announce a "tentative" field size of 20,000 and grant another 10,000 people "TBD" status from the end of registration in November until a final deadline to possibly expand the field size to a traditional number some time in January.

Hope so. I'd love to see the science on field sizes at this point. Again, I am not an anti-vaxx, Plandemic person at all, but if everyone is vaccinated or has a negative test, this all just feels like unnecessary window-dressing. People can wear masks in the Expo and on the way to the race.

This 1000%

So if I'm getting this right, the 2022 and 2023 windows overlap such that anyone who runs a BQ between September 1, 2021 and November 12, 2021 is eligible to enter for BOTH 2022 and 2023 races, with that one qualifying time?

Correct.

I'm just frustrated as someone with "only" a ~4 minute buffer from a race in fall 2020. Looks like the only opportunities I'll have to use that time will be for two years with significantly reduced field sizes. In normal years that'd almost be a slam dunk. Meanwhile people with times from fall 2019 can somehow use those times to add to the number of applicants for this Spring.

Mike_Milburys_Shoe wrote:

Correct.

I'm just frustrated as someone with "only" a ~4 minute buffer from a race in fall 2020. Looks like the only opportunities I'll have to use that time will be for two years with significantly reduced field sizes. In normal years that'd almost be a slam dunk. Meanwhile people with times from fall 2019 can somehow use those times to add to the number of applicants for this Spring.

If you had registered for the 2021 Virtual Boston Marathon with your -4 minute buffer BQ time you would have received an email invitation from the BAA to run the 2021 race in person. Runners claimed that anyone signed up for the virtual race with a BQ, even if they had little or no buffer, received an invitation email a few months ago.

The original cutoff of 7:47 was changed to 7:24. Those that missed the original cutoff by up to 23 seconds and did not sign up for the virtual race also later received an invitation to run the race.

That...is very disappointing to hear lol

MRMRMRMR wrote:

Wait a second, if someone qualified in Sept 2019 they can now use their time TWICE? That is insane.

It makes sense since the races are only six months apart this time. You've always been able to use a fall marathon to upgrade your starting corral one year and register for the marathon the next. And there's usually been one weekend in September where there's an overlap in qualifying dates and you could use the same race to qualify twice.

My P.R. (on an honest course) from October 2019 has gotten me a lot of mileage. I used it to upgrade my corral for the 2020 race that never happened, to register for the 2021 race, and now to register for the 2022 race.