Somebody posted that Coburn is the better athlete. That's not even close to true. Just the opposite. In fact the gap in raw ability and versatility is what has always allowed Frerichs the opportunity to close the gap quickly, despite the head to head record.
Coburn is a plodder. Her tempo never varies nor her technique. Same robotic arm swing lap after lap. Never an injection of speed. She is totally incapable of making a quick evaluation of how the race is unfolding, and adjusting her strategy to fit.
That Tokyo Olympic final was doomed to disaster of an East African sweep if Coburn had her way, even in top form. They were on 9:16 pace and Emma Coburn wasn't going to do a darn thing about it. It would never occur to her. She has always been tremendously consistent but dependent on others to collapse around her. Other than that early Diamond League victory when nobody in the field took her seriously, Coburn will not risk an aggressive solo venture to the front in international company. Frerichs essentially embarrassed Coburn into that gold medal in 2017. Frerichs took the lead first, darting forward at the barrier around the bend on the final lap. Only when Coburn saw that another American had passed her did the pride kick in and Coburn rushed forward to join Frerichs. Minus Frerichs in that frontward position I don't think Coburn makes that move at all. It is not her history. She is always content to cede to whomever the lead East African is during the late going.
Frerichs demonstrated great versatility and guts in that 2017 race then seemingly shelved it for 4 years. I'll never understand it. Following that race she literally was used as a pacer in a Diamond League 3000. I couldn't believe what I was looking at.
I assumed Frerichs would use the London example as lesson that she needed to get into shape to repeatedly accelerate the steeplechase during the pivotal late laps. It didn't happen until Tokyo. Maybe the Chepkoech dominance was demoralizing until recently. That is understandable. No way to go to the front if she is there, and holding.
Regardless, Frerichs has many more gears than Coburn and exponentially greater tactical variance. She lacked Coburn's confidence. IMO, that is the trigger to the lopsided head to head numbers.
I posted a few days ago that Jeruto might be motivated after missing the Olympics, and drag Frerichs with her to sub-9:00.00. That's exactly what happened. Also, I posted this week that Frerichs could save several seconds merely by not stutter stepping to every barrier. If you watch today's race it is the best Frerichs has ever done in that regard, I counted only three barriers in which she used her standard method of slowing noticeably and chopping several steps.
It takes energy and saps energy to stutter those steps. Frerichs has plenty more upside if she continues to take the barriers calmly in stride.
Disgusting that today's race wasn't within the network window. The only version I found so far doesn't even include commentary.