Understanding he never would've made it there to begin with, how fast do we think our young prodigy would have gone if he'd had the benefit of a race like that, were the leaders are going through 400 in 56 and 800 in 1:52? Do we think he could've gone 3:32?
birdbeard wrote:
Understanding he never would've made it there to begin with, how fast do we think our young prodigy would have gone if he'd had the benefit of a race like that, were the leaders are going through 400 in 56 and 800 in 1:52? Do we think he could've gone 3:32?
3:43.17 - on a goo day.
birdbeard wrote:
Understanding he never would've made it there to begin with, how fast do we think our young prodigy would have gone if he'd had the benefit of a race like that, were the leaders are going through 400 in 56 and 800 in 1:52? Do we think he could've gone 3:32?
He would've run it exactly like he ran most of his pro races. Straight to the back, and try to kick guys down with a good last lap. Optimistically that means going out in 1:54/2:51 and going past Jake Heyward late for a 3:33 high/3:34 low time. He would not have been able to hang with the Rozmys/Hocker type races.
birdbeard wrote:
Understanding he never would've made it there to begin with...
You already answered your own question
DNS
He would of won so 3:28.31
Woulda coulda shoulda. Nobody knows and it doesn’t matter until he is in that situation
michiganrunner55 wrote:
Woulda coulda shoulda. Nobody knows and it doesn’t matter until he is in that situation
Absolutely! This speculation is RIDICULOUS!
What would Jim Ryun have run it in, given modern innovations? What would Engelbert Humperdinck run it in? Or Mike Ditka, while eating a bratwurst??? Or Carl Lewis, while trying to sing the National Anthem?
Ugh, who's the better athlete -- Jim Thorpe or Damian Warner? Or Ryun, or Humperdinck, or Ditka, or Carl Lewis???
LappedMiler wrote:
What would Jim Ryun have run it in, given modern innovations? What would Engelbert Humperdinck run it in? Or Mike Ditka, while eating a bratwurst??? Or Carl Lewis, while trying to sing the National Anthem?
Ryun - At his peak, 3:27.9 for the win.
Engelbert Humperdinck - He's 85, so I'm going with DNF. If he manages to finish, around 12:30.
Mike Ditka, while eating a bratwurst - At his peak, around 6:55. The bratwurst is taking a good bit out of his time though.
Carl Lewis, while trying to sing the National Anthem - If he's at his peak, I'd say 5:13 with atrocious splits. He can get the anthem out of the way before he's too fatigued, but he'll be hanging on for dear life the rest of the way.
As for Kessler, I think if he ran his own perfect race, he runs a 3:33 mid. More realistically, I'd put him just off of his PR 3:34 high - 3:35 low.
It is a rather silly hypothetical, and this is coming from someone who toils endlessly in silly hypotheticals.
I think Kessler’s 3:34.36 was set up pretty perfectly for him to run fast. With 12 of 13 runners in the Olympic final going through 1000 in 2:22.9 (3:34.35 pace) or faster, he may well have found it a tougher battle psychologically, if not physically. I think a good race would be to hang in there with the second-to-last group until the final 100-200m, and maybe scalp Wightman for 10th. Beating Heyward for 9th would be awesome. Second-to-last would be plenty excusable.
He wouldn’t have made it out of the semis though.
birdbeard wrote:
Understanding he never would've made it there to begin with, how fast do we think our young prodigy would have gone if he'd had the benefit of a race like that, were the leaders are going through 400 in 56 and 800 in 1:52? Do we think he could've gone 3:32?
How fast would have Tom Brady ran in the final?
Listen, back the pressure off the kid. He did remarkable things but it is best to let him make his way to the Olympics before comparing him to this one.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
It is a rather silly hypothetical, and this is coming from someone who toils endlessly in silly hypotheticals.
I think Kessler’s 3:34.36 was set up pretty perfectly for him to run fast. With 12 of 13 runners in the Olympic final going through 1000 in 2:22.9 (3:34.35 pace) or faster, he may well have found it a tougher battle psychologically, if not physically. I think a good race would be to hang in there with the second-to-last group until the final 100-200m, and maybe scalp Wightman for 10th. Beating Heyward for 9th would be awesome. Second-to-last would be plenty excusable.
He wouldn’t have made it out of the semis though.
100% agree
He ran the perfect race for his ability and leave it at that.
Hobbs has the physical skills to make an Olympic final and maybe he will one day. But there is a lot of emotional, psychological, and tactical maturing to do. A lot. Most of the recent (this century) sub-4 high school boys never progressed to big success. Matthew Maton, anyone? I was at Hayward to see that live in 2015. Amazing. But then what? Maybe one day Gjert will teach classes in how to bring a talented teenager to global dominance.
Kessler would have run 3:31 if he was dropped into the final fresh without having run the rounds.
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
Hobbs has the physical skills to make an Olympic final and maybe he will one day. But there is a lot of emotional, psychological, and tactical maturing to do. A lot. Most of the recent (this century) sub-4 high school boys never progressed to big success. Matthew Maton, anyone? I was at Hayward to see that live in 2015. Amazing. But then what? Maybe one day Gjert will teach classes in how to bring a talented teenager to global dominance.
Why do people attribute Jakob's success to his father's coaching? He would be just as good if he ran for BTC.
If Jakob was in the BTC he would not have the racing experience it takes to be a world-beater like he is now.
Knower of Track Events wrote:
Kessler would have run 3:31 if he was dropped into the final fresh without having run the rounds.
This is kind of what I was getting at. No doubt his PR race was nearly the perfect race for him, but what if we tossed fresh Hobbs Kessler into the fastest 1500 race all year. Same would be said for something like Monaco, I suppose, but I'm just curious the limit of his ability. Was it the 3:34? Or is it more like 3:31-33?
SDSU Aztec wrote:Why do people attribute Jakob's success to his father's coaching? He would be just as good if he ran for BTC.
Jerry doesn't have the best track record with mid-distance.
Gjert said he believes Jakob is no more talented than Henrik and Filip, he just refined the training so Jakob has had almost no injuries and no periods of overtraining, etc. Not sure if I buy that -- it seems there has to be some talent disparity, at least with Henrik -- but I think Gjert was pretty clinical about what worked and what didn't and has a pretty good handle on what he's doing.
birdbeard wrote:
Understanding he never would've made it there to begin with, how fast do we think our young prodigy would have gone if he'd had the benefit of a race like that, were the leaders are going through 400 in 56 and 800 in 1:52? Do we think he could've gone 3:32?
He wouldn't have made the final similar to what happened at trials. He either doesn't have the fitness, mental strength or tactical savvy just yet to survive the rounds.