Knowing Katir is 7 seconds faster in the 1500 than Fisher (and even more over Chelimo and Kincaid) will make it tough for the US to medal in a 13:20+ race. I don't know how much kick the BTC guys will gave left. In a 13:00 race maybe Chelimo is top 6 and in this weather that should break Fisher and Woody. Nobody top 8 in a 12:50 race.
Katir ran 3:28 and 7:27 this year. No one's beating him.
duderz wrote:
Katir ran 3:28 and 7:27 this year. No one's beating him.
I think bronze is the best he can achieve. In his PB run in Florence, he was behind Mo Ahmed who was 4th in Rio and third at Worlds in Doha. Kiplimo wins gold here
When did the US become so much better than Kenya and Ethiopia?
Here's how the race is going to play out. They're going to go out in about 30 seconds, slow down to 34, and run a 68. So, they'll be about 2:12 at 800. They'll kind of find a rhythm at 65 pace. I predict 4:22-4:24 at the 1600. Another couple 66s followed by a 64 and a 63 (8:41-8:43 through the 3200). Will start ratcheting down the pace from there with 63, 62, 59, 57 (12:41-12:43 at 4800) 26 final 200. Final time 13:07-13:09. Now, if Chelimo and Kincaid want to try to trade laps and make up for that mockery of a race at the 2019? USATF championships, we could see a sub 13 clocking. I'll take my LR shirt in medium please.
btc rules wrote:
When did the US become so much better than Kenya and Ethiopia?
When burritos.
btc rules wrote:
When did the US become so much better than Kenya and Ethiopia?
Let's calm down. That was a slow prelim race.
Kenya have struggled on the track for decades. Tanui and Kamworor took a few minor medals but they've always come up short, never looked like serious contenders for gold.
Ethiopian beat themselves. They sent a sub-standard team to the 5k. Barega, Edris, and Gebrehiwhot would destroy this race. Everyone else should thank their lucky stars that Ethiopian athletics is a mess
yoyomama wrote:
Knowing Katir is 7 seconds faster in the 1500 than Fisher (and even more over Chelimo and Kincaid) will make it tough for the US to medal in a 13:20+ race. I don't know how much kick the BTC guys will gave left. In a 13:00 race maybe Chelimo is top 6 and in this weather that should break Fisher and Woody. Nobody top 8 in a 12:50 race.
This won't be a 13:00 race. The distance races have all been slow with a hard finish. It will probably finish in 13:25-13:30. It won't help the Fisher or Kincaid, they aren't set up to race in tough conditions having prepared exclusively on high school tracks in windless, temperate conditions. Chelimo is a fighter so can get involved in any type of race, he has a chance but it's slim. Katir is the man to beat, he'll take gold and I'm going for a Canadian 2-3, Ahmed for silver, Knight for bronze. That might be a biased call, I just really like Knight and want to see him do well, but he has 3:33 1500 speed which, I think, makes him second quickest in the field over the shorter distance
Underestimating Cheptegai. And Kiplimo. The 10k showed they’re both more fit than Ahmed right now. The race is between Katir and the Ugandans, maybe Chelimo. Then the Canadians.
devils advocate wrote:
Underestimating Cheptegai. And Kiplimo. The 10k showed they’re both more fit than Ahmed right now. The race is between Katir and the Ugandans, maybe Chelimo. Then the Canadians.
Last Worlds Ahmed was 6th in the 10 and third in the 5. He was 6th in the 10 here.
High hopes wrote:
Kenya have struggled on the track for decades. Tanui and Kamworor took a few minor medals but they've always come up short, never looked like serious contenders for gold.
Ethiopian beat themselves. They sent a sub-standard team to the 5k. Barega, Edris, and Gebrehiwhot would destroy this race. Everyone else should thank their lucky stars that Ethiopian athletics is a mess
I agree. “With No Form at All” would destroy this field in a slow tactical race as he beat Mo in that slow London 5k.
If it's relatively fast, it's between the two Ugandans, Canadians, Kimeli and Katir.
If it's not, add the Americans.
High hopes wrote:
Kenya have struggled on the track for decades. Tanui and Kamworor took a few minor medals but they've always come up short, never looked like serious contenders for gold.
Ethiopian beat themselves. They sent a sub-standard team to the 5k. Barega, Edris, and Gebrehiwhot would destroy this race. Everyone else should thank their lucky stars that Ethiopian athletics is a mess
You should say at 5,000-10,000, but especially 5,000. They've done fine at 800-1500 obviously. For 5,000, they've been unable to find a guy who could kick with the world's best and stay consistent after Kipchoge (Ndiku briefly looked like it). 10,000-wise, Kamworor and Kandie have been their best prospects but they also prioritize the roads. I do think Kimeli and Simiyu (fell) are their brightest hopes in some time. 20-person heat certainly bad luck for Simiyu who looked uncomfortable in a super-physical heat, but asking him to overcome the fall AND outkick the season BTC guys/Balew was too much.
Agree with your assessment on the Ethiopians. Wale for whatever reason was made to run the double (yet Barega wasn't allowed to...?). I think they felt bad for forcing him in the Steeple, but he was not recovered to run well in the 5,000. He should've run fresh OR they could insert Gebrhiwet and/or allow Barega to double. Instead they've got one A team guy (who was dead tired) and two B-teamers with less experience than needed.
So, really you could argue of the top 15-20 5,000 guys in the world, you are missing as many as 8 in the final? Kejelcha (chose wrong event clearly), Barega, Gebrhiwet, Jakob, Wale (too tired), Krop (bombed Kenyan Trials), Edris (bombed Ethiopian Trials), Simiyu (fell).
Kenya and Ethiopia trying to replicate the top 3 system of the US is ironically a big boon to everyone else.
Really going out on a limb here and say that the US runners will run strong and be there with 600m to go then over the last 350 the top East Africans will run some blazing fast time and they will be left in the wash.