Men's 1500m: 3:29 estimated ... but can they stand the heat?

It’ll be cooler when they run in the evening

It’s all going to depend on the exact nature of the heat. The East Africans had no issues with the heat for the steeples yesterday and ran quite fast. The 800 runners no issues thus far. A dew point of 70 or below is not going to change Tim’s game plan. From there it’s Jakob and McSweyn who make the call, though maybe (just maybe) Tims teammates will be encouraged to run with him like Kwemoi did. But I imagine it will have to be 90 degrees plus and 90% humidity to alter Tim’s thinking as far as making it fast,

The 10k was the first clear example of what distance races will look like in Tokyo. An absolutely phenomenal field, and it was won in a pedestrian 27:43, without even much of a kick (53.9 on the last lap, maybe 4:05 last 1600?). Additionally, an American with no business being competitive finished 5th. This is the story we will see play out in the marathon, 5k and 1500 as well. Strong, deep fields will be wasted by the heat and the Americans will race above their caliber and win medals where they were not expected to. I predict a winning 1500m time of 3:34-3:36, with a 1:48-1:50 final 800, and at least one american on the podium, possibly at the top of it. The 5k will be won in 13:10-13:20 with a 4:01-4:04 final 1600, and once again a surprise american on the podium.

If they can't stand the "heat" for less than a mile, then they are total wieners.

Everyone wants a fast sub3:30 race. What you'll get is a slow 800 followed with a very fast 700. Maybe not as slow as 2016 in Rio but a 3:35 for the win isn't out of the question.

Timothy will take it out hard and who knows maybe he’ll win. I hope he does! However, Kerr and Centro will be interesting to watch. They can both be kick there and kick if necessary.

I mean the Steeple and 5k prelims have been pretty fast. The 10K is a different beast.

Any streams? Who the hell pays for cable in 2021?

my two pennies wrote:

The 10k was the first clear example of what distance races will look like in Tokyo. An absolutely phenomenal field, and it was won in a pedestrian 27:43, without even much of a kick (53.9 on the last lap, maybe 4:05 last 1600?). Additionally, an American with no business being competitive finished 5th. This is the story we will see play out in the marathon, 5k and 1500 as well. Strong, deep fields will be wasted by the heat and the Americans will race above their caliber and win medals where they were not expected to.I predict a winning 1500m time of 3:34-3:36, with a 1:48-1:50 final 800, and at least one american on the podium, possibly at the top of it. The 5k will be won in 13:10-13:20 with a 4:01-4:04 final 1600, and once again a surprise american on the podium.

First bolded point you saw how runners who have run well under 27:00 compared to Fisher's 27:11 can handle a last lap, heat or not. You also saw two Americans who were dropped well before that.

Second bolded point why do you feel Americans would not be wasted by the heat and run above their caliber while others will not? What's the physiological difference that will allow that?

Third bolded point Keino ran 3:34 at altitude which is one hell of a greater challenge than running in the heat. If Tim wants a hard pace it will be much faster than 3:34.