Covid cases plummet in Britain. Scientists baffled.

ebsnsnw wrote:

CarbonFiberJoe wrote:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/britain-covid-cases-plummet-mystery/2021/07/28/4fa3a734-ef7c-11eb-81b2-9b7061a582d8_story.html

Hi,,

This is mainly because schools have now broken up for holidays.

Not a mystery...

Yep, it's pretty clear cut.

They were doing lots of testing in schools with easy access to contacts. Lot of positive tests but not a huge amount of serious symptomatic cases.

The final of the Euros was nearly 3 weeks ago, surely anyone catching it around that time will either be clear or already tested positive by now.

Its only "the scientists" who are baffled, not anyone else though.

You see, here, we have a miracle man come psuedo "science expert/viriologist called Neil Ferguson. As soon as Neil Ferguson inputs data into his magic predictions machine and comes out with something like "there will be 100,000 cases per day", as he did a couple of days ago, or "2 million could die!!!", cases immediately drop.

He's incredibly reliable, which is more than can be said for his magical predictions machine or his own adherence to lockdown rules.

Perhaps we could lend him to the US to reduce cases? He's actually a physicist, and very clever, limelight-loving chap. Constantly on tv talking nonsense with a serious expression on his face. You guys would love him.

Meanwhile, actual scientists get on with things like inventing vaccines that work and since something like 88% of all over 40s are now vaccinated in the UK, its hardly surprising that cases have dropped. I still don't even know a single person who has been hospitalised by covid, but I know of 3 people who have died due to delayed cancer treatment.

comedyrel!ef wrote:

adslkfjadf;hg wrote:

Yeah, I remember reading a huge amount of Indians actually got it - this Delta variant seems to spread crazy fast and burn itself out (hopefully).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57885663

Hopefully it turns out like the UK variant, the California variant, the Brazil variant, the South African variant, etc. Dominates the headlines for a couple weeks and then disappears.

Just looking at the data from India - it's obvious that the Delta variant isn't as bad as the fearmongers make it out to be and natural immunity wins the day:

Only 7.2% of Indians are fully vaccinated. They have 423,000 deaths vs 628,000 for the U.S. The U.S. deaths per 1 M population is 1886 vs only 333 per 1 M population for India (323 million population vs 1.4 billion).

If this Delta variant is so deadly it should have killed TENS of MILLIONS of Indians as it ran roughshod throughout the country. And consider how high the poverty rate is in India resulting in poor nutritional status with hundreds of millions!

It seems to be more likely that the UK Gov is not counting figures in the same way as before. I guess they don't want to show that re-opening fully could be seen as potentially causing cases to continue. The Zoe app which has been a long, independent study of Covid from the start is showing that whilst figures aren't continuing to rise, they're not dropping either, especially not at the rate which the Gov are suggesting. Interesting viewing, especially the graphs around 4:30 in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p7ok5aIX6s&t=1s

"Or maybe Britain has reached an immunity threshold. More than 70 percent of adults here are fully vaccinated, and 88 percent have had a first dose"

that line is from the article you linked -

the same thing will happen in the US after a few more months of people getting the Delta variant. because there will be no one left for the virus to attack...as long as those vaccinated and previously exposed are still protected

there is no mystery here

except to the person who wrote the story. and even they kinda knew the answer already as the above line suggests

The Unkle wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

New cases were supposed to soar. And they did soar. With a 70% single shot rate, and a 56% full vaccination rate, the new case count soared, mostly among the unvaccinated, from a low of about 2000, to a near all time high of 47,000 for the UK.

27,734 new cases a day is still a lot for the UK, higher than the rate for nearly all of 2020, except the last 10 days.

Wow.

A complete denial of what is happening in England

This makes no sense. I think the description you are looking for is complete confirmation.

But I wonder, and at the same time I don’t, but what do you think is happening exactly in England?

It has killed millions of Indians, potentially getting on for ten million...

Enough of the fearmongering with Delta! wrote:

Only 7.2% of Indians are fully vaccinated. They have 423,000 deaths vs 628,000 for the U.S. The U.S. deaths per 1 M population is 1886 vs only 333 per 1 M population for India (323 million population vs 1.4 billion).

If this Delta variant is so deadly it should have killed TENS of MILLIONS of Indians as it ran roughshod throughout the country. And consider how high the poverty rate is in India resulting in poor nutritional status with hundreds of millions!

Except it did kill millions of Indians. Excess death figures are obviously more trustworthy than tallied deaths given the often poor medical infrastructure in India and the huge strain COVID put on it.

Something like 4 millions deaths are currently estimated:

Considering India has a MUCH younger population than much of the West we’d expect a lower IFR. Everything seems to fit.

Berenson has been so wrong about everything since March 2020 is usually a safe bet that if he says something, the opposite is true.

cvcv wrote:

"Or maybe Britain has reached an immunity threshold. More than 70 percent of adults here are fully vaccinated, and 88 percent have had a first dose"

that line is from the article you linked -

the same thing will happen in the US after a few more months of people getting the Delta variant. because there will be no one left for the virus to attack...as long as those vaccinated and previously exposed are still protected

there is no mystery here

except to the person who wrote the story. and even they kinda knew the answer already as the above line suggests

This is my guess. We know Delta is significantly more transmissible than prior strains. Estimated R0 of 5-6. It makes sense that Delta could fuel outbreaks in a highly vaccinated population simply because it’s so transmissible. The partial immune evasion that allows a little more vaccinated transmission doesn’t help.

But, this never changed the fact that a large majority of the UK is immune. The virus only had so much headroom to spread in an already highly vaccinated population. Rt was going to drop quickly given that the UK was seemingly close to population immunity under prior strains.

Unless you thought vaccines didn’t do anything to stop transmission, which is wrong, I don’t see how a wave could sustain itself for that long in a place with so much immunity.

rekrunner wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Wow.

A complete denial of what is happening in England

This makes no sense. I think the description you are looking for is complete confirmation.

But I wonder, and at the same time I don’t, but what do you think is happening exactly in England?

Cases are dropping dramatically per these reports and you are talking about how bad it is.

Why?

Yeah India is not where to look, and Berenson is not the person to listen to.

I am pretty optimistic about Delta myself because I look at the numbers and it seems a large proportion of what is being captured is mild cases. Yes, there will be pockets of the country with low vaccination rates and some unhealthy people who are anti-vaxx that will cause some uptick in hospitalizations/deaths, but I don't think this will spawn a new crisis among the vaccinated or the healthy. That is thanks to the vaccine.

We gotta keep this thing going! Without the virus what will the media talk about? Oh yeah their obsession with 45 still seems to be a story. And the cute pics of Jill at the olympics. Imagine if Mrs Trump was at the olympics - she would be roasted!

The Unkle wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

This makes no sense. I think the description you are looking for is complete confirmation.

But I wonder, and at the same time I don’t, but what do you think is happening exactly in England?

Cases are dropping dramatically per these reports and you are talking about how bad it is.

Why?

While it is less than 47,000, it is also more than 2000, and 27,734 is still bad.

How are hospitalization rates?

The thing I wonder about is the Singapore data (which does a wonderful job tracking and testing, with a testing rate way above anyone else). From their data, they have had about 65,000 cases and 37 deaths. Part of this low rate is probably a.) catching more asymptomatic infections, b.) the majority of cases were in migrant workers who are pre-screened for health conditions and tend to be younger, and c.) obesity is not an issue like it is in the west. But even discounting those, the rate is miniscule (about 0.06% fatality rate).

rekrunner wrote:

While it is less than 47,000, it is also more than 2000, and 27,734 is still bad.

No it's not. It's a non-issue.

Scientists who pay attention aren't baffled.

- Euros

- Schools out for summer

- Reduced mandatory testing

- Reduced voluntary testing since freedom day / Apps uninstalled

- People likely to get Delta probably did already - as poven by the Variant being characterised by a short sharp peak

The football was a huge reason. (Actually it's bigger than that Chris, it's large). The third biggest sporting competition in the world behind Olys and World Cup, and it was on home soil featuring 3 of the 4 home nations. Just look at the stats of 18-40 men who tested/testing positive.

There might be a final kick in the tail to account for return to normality, but it's pretty much over.

Now we need countries like India and USA to catch up with their vaccination programme and reduce the chance of any new variants.

As London is the cultural hub and melting pot of the world, the UK is always going to have to deal with new variants almost as soon as they come about.