Centro's chances in Tokyo = super bleak

Super bleak, now there's a phrase by a true wordsmith.

Assuming Centro makes the final, you can't count him out for a chance of at a podium finish.

Tim might try his new strategy. Blast the first couple laps, cruise the 3rd lap decently, save a bit for the stretch run. IT's worked well for him at Diamond meets twice. At the Olympics it could be a good strategy after the rounds.

HOWEVER -- I cracks the door open a wee bit. Also, Jakob's probably gonna do the 5000? We'll see.

There are 21 runners who have actually run 3:31:xx over the last 2yrs...not "we know he's is in 3:31:xx shape" but like you know....actual race results...

12 have run actual races in 3:30:xx

5 have run actual races in sub 3:30....

So based on actual results Centro might make the final and might place around 6-10th.

A final run in 3:32-34 still is better for these guys coming in with recent displays of 3:30 fitness because 3:32-34 should be much easier for them and so they should have more in the tank to finish with while our guys will be closer to red lining. Unless they do something stupid again like 2016.

Centro: 6-10th

Other two US guys....long shot to make final.

Alan

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

2021 Centro is a lot more like 2019 Doha Centro (8th place) than 2016 Rio Centro.

In a TT style final he would lose to:

Tim, Jakob, McSweyn, Simotwo and maybe Lewandowski and Kerr.

In a sit and kick style final he would lose to:

Tim, Kerr, Hocker, Lewandowski and maybe Jakob and Simotwo.

Convince me otherwise.

Well, since he won gold in a sit & kick race in 2016, not sure why you think his odds would be a lot worse unless you think his fitness is worse. Maybe that's what you meant by 2016 vs 2019 but I took that to mean race style.

Anyways, dk why LRC is always hating. The website apologizes to Hocker for not getting a vaccine & Centro runs 3:49-low after going out hot & gets tons of heat thrown his way.

Centro showed us that he has a little something left in the tank. Dk if that's a medal, top-6, top-8, making the final, etc. The 1500 is a super strong event. He went out the way Cheruiyot does in DL races. He faded late & ran 3:49-low. It's a 3:48 if the pacers make it to 1200. He went through 1500 in what -- 3:33ish? Would have run under that if it was a 1500. Maybe 3:30-3:31 range? Now throw in real competition pushing you. I agree that in a fast race he gets beat because his ceiling is 3:30ish & others can go 3:28 but he's going to be plenty competitive. His mile pb is faster than Cheruiyot's now. All of this is to say that things happen in a 1 off final. Things happen during the rounds. Fatigue builds up. But to go after Centro the way these boards have is nonsense. He's a proven championship racer. I expect him to make the final & finish top-8. I know that isn't good enough for some of you but we've been spoiled by his consistency even if guys have faster PRs.

Big Red wrote:

Super bleak, now there's a phrase by a true wordsmith.

Assuming Centro makes the final, you can't count him out for a chance of at a podium finish.

Tim might try his new strategy. Blast the first couple laps, cruise the 3rd lap decently, save a bit for the stretch run. IT's worked well for him at Diamond meets twice. At the Olympics it could be a good strategy after the rounds.

HOWEVER -- I cracks the door open a wee bit. Also, Jakob's probably gonna do the 5000? We'll see.

Poster, you described the typical 13 year old to 15 year old 1500m/1600m/one mile racing strategy. That strategy seems to work because often there is a gal or guy in 1500m/1600m/mile race clearly superior to others.

Consider that Centro’s 1500m pb is 3:30.4 and after Saturday’s mile pb I’d assume he’s in roughly the same shape as he was when he ran that 3:30. But point taken and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up 6-10 place. My point is that people are writing him off (in my opinion unnecessarily) when Centro’s shape and experience combined suggests he should be in the mix at least.

Centro is definitely in the mix.

I think Timothy Cheruiyot and Jakob Ingebrigtsen are out of reach if they are at or near their peak for the Olympic final. But people trip (El G) or have bad days or tactical errors (Kiprop) so you can't just pencil them in as sure things to beat him even though they're heavily favored.

After those two, I really don't see a ton of distance between the Kerr/McSweyn/Simotwo/Lewandowski/Tefera group and Centrowitz. I think his tactics and form make him competitive with that group so I can certainly see him sneaking in for silver or bronze under the right circumstances. They aren't out of his league.

raging clue wrote:

Consider that Centro’s 1500m pb is 3:30.4 and after Saturday’s mile pb I’d assume he’s in roughly the same shape as he was when he ran that 3:30. But point taken and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up 6-10 place. My point is that people are writing him off (in my opinion unnecessarily) when Centro’s shape and experience combined suggests he should be in the mix at least.

His mile pb was weak in comparison to his 3:30. As has been said....this mile pb is worth about 3:32.

A realistic expectation is he'll run about as well as he did in 2019.

Alan

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

2) a 3:32 race with a 51s last 400m

I don't think anyone is capable of this, unless the penultimate lap is outside 57 secs.

The only athlete who has managed that in a championship final is Morceli in the 91 Worlds, with a 51.6, and his previous 400m was 58.7.

A 3:32 is more likely going to finish with a 52 mid - 53 mid last lap.

Runningart2004 wrote:

raging clue wrote:

Consider that Centro’s 1500m pb is 3:30.4 and after Saturday’s mile pb I’d assume he’s in roughly the same shape as he was when he ran that 3:30. But point taken and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up 6-10 place. My point is that people are writing him off (in my opinion unnecessarily) when Centro’s shape and experience combined suggests he should be in the mix at least.

His mile pb was weak in comparison to his 3:30. As has been said....this mile pb is worth about 3:32.

A realistic expectation is he'll run about as well as he did in 2019.

Alan

You realise you're trampling on the flag, here?

Alan--

You do realize that PRs do not determine one's place in a race, right? Sure, plenty of people have run 3:31 and under over the last few years. The sun also sets in the west.

The question is what sort of racing skills do those runners have? That's not a question you can answer by appealing to PRs and SBs.

my two pennies wrote:

The defending Olympic champion runs a mile PR and shows throughout the season he’s at a high level of fitness? Trust me, EVERYBODY is thinking about him. Tim, Jakob and Kerr (maybe others if they’re cocky) are probably thinking they’re in better shape than him, but they’re definitely taking him into consideration. I agree that this doesn’t change Tim’s approach, but I think Jakob’s fitness does. To put it simply; Tim will lose to Jakob if he goes from the gun, and if he doesn’t he gives Centro and Kerr a good shot to beat him (or even Hocker). He can win this race, but he needs to be at his best and run a perfect race (likely taking the reins in the last 800 and pushing for a 1:46 last 800).

I don’t disagree with that but the favorites are thinking more about the other favorites than they are Centro.

And I agree about settling in and then pushing the last 800.

In 2016 they all let Centro keep leading after the slow opening 800. That’s where Kiprop should have moved to take over the race and drawn it out until the end.

Instead he waiting for 300+ meters to go and had a slew of runners to get by before getting on Centro’s shoulder with 200m to go and didn’t have enough gas to get around him right there.

Tamburlaine has the most reasonable takes on this thread.

Sopa,

I have to be rude but it’s obvious you are new to this and don’t have much sense for the history of the world stage or elite level racing

4L wrote:

Tamburlaine has the most reasonable takes on this thread.

Sopa,

I have to be rude but it’s obvious you are new to this and don’t have much sense for the history of the world stage or elite level racing

In addition to Worlds and Olympics, there are Euros and Commonwealth Games, both with very strong fields and rounds to go through. And as British runners compete in both Euros and the Commonwealth Games they have the most experience. And they're running against Kenyans and Aussies in the Commonwealth Games, and against the rest of Europe at Euros.

Non-Americans run more elite level championship races than Americans do, who basically just run against other Americans most of the time.

I'm stumped wrote:

4L wrote:

Tamburlaine has the most reasonable takes on this thread.

Sopa,

I have to be rude but it’s obvious you are new to this and don’t have much sense for the history of the world stage or elite level racing

In addition to Worlds and Olympics, there are Euros and Commonwealth Games, both with very strong fields and rounds to go through. And as British runners compete in both Euros and the Commonwealth Games they have the most experience. And they're running against Kenyans and Aussies in the Commonwealth Games, and against the rest of Europe at Euros.

Non-Americans run more elite level championship races than Americans do, who basically just run against other Americans most of the time.

Wightman, Grice and O'Hare in 2018 ran both championships. Wightman took 3rd in the Commonwealth running against Manangoi and Cheruiyot, then took 3rd at Euros behind J.Inge and Lewandowksi.

4L wrote:

Tamburlaine has the most reasonable takes on this thread.

Sopa,

I have to be rude but it’s obvious you are new to this and don’t have much sense for the history of the world stage or elite level racing

+1

Bullet_Proof wrote:

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

While statistically you are absolutely correct, it also could be Centro who will choke.

I will remind you that in hist last major competition (WC Doha 2019) Centro placed 8th in a time of 3:32.

His 800m SB back then was 1:46, the same as this year. Also his mile TT converts to 3:32. So there is a good indication, that it could be a repeat of Doha for Centro.

+1.

He will not even make it to the final.

These threads are almost identical to the threads discussing Galen. "He's too slow, his PR is only 3:30" "But just look at all these 2:03-2:04 guys" wah wah wah. Then where are you clowns when Centro and Galen WIN MEDALS?!?!?

It's like you never learn. Did you all miss Rio, or have tried to forget? PRs matter very little in these type of races.

Tamburlaine wrote:

Alan--

You do realize that PRs do not determine one's place in a race, right? Sure, plenty of people have run 3:31 and under over the last few years. The sun also sets in the west.

The question is what sort of racing skills do those runners have? That's not a question you can answer by appealing to PRs and SBs.

Right in some ways. But even if PRs do not determine they can tell a lot about the runners capacity. And the racing skills might have their place dependent on how the race develops. The runners know that. There is a lot of great 800 meter runners. One who is not mentioned is Taddese Lemi. They can use their skills, some will depend on them and go home disappointed, others not. But at least Jakob I and McSweyn (and Filip I) know that they have to run a fast 1500 to even get a medal.

These threads are almost identical to the threads discussing Galen. "He's too slow, his PR is only 3:30" "But just look at all these 2:03-2:04 guys" wah wah wah. Then where are you clowns when Centro and Galen WIN MEDALS?!?!?

It's like you never learn. Did you all miss Rio, or have tried to forget? PRs matter very little in these type of races.[/quote]

You might be right. Some here did miss Rio, but the runners did not. They know all too well. And they knew in Doha.

Tamburlaine wrote:

Alan--

You do realize that PRs do not determine one's place in a race, right? Sure, plenty of people have run 3:31 and under over the last few years. The sun also sets in the west.

The question is what sort of racing skills do those runners have? That's not a question you can answer by appealing to PRs and SBs.

Being consistently faster than the next guy is probably a racing skill - but not really observable in Centro's tool-kit. But he can be quite good over 400m - when everything else falls into place.