Centro's chances in Tokyo = super bleak

2016 is the past. Centrowitz is at best an outsider to medal in 2021. I doubt that anyone outside the US sees him as a contender at Tokyo. I think Willis - who has medaled twice in the event - is the better runner. Centro's 2016 was a fluke. The race won't be repeated in any way.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Don't forget to come here after the final, when Centro places 8th or so.

The problem here is that almost nobody follows international meets and only cares about Americans. I have watched every big meet this year on Youtube and have closely followed progressions of the top 30 runners. Can tell you that this year the field is exceptionally deep and it does not look good for Centro in any scenario. Some serious TT specialists and also some serious kickers present. To be honest, I 100% believe that Hocker will place higher than Centro.

Word for word what people said in 2016. Centro is on another level tactically.

Not so easy.

If 800m split is in 1:58.xx to 2:02.xx range and Timothy Cheruiyot makes it through the rounds without being tripped or some other mishap, I guarantee you the 400m split from 800m to 1200m will not be 57.xx as in your example. If Timothy C. is in the race and he allows a slow first 800m, Cheruiyot will more than equal Jurgen Straub, 1980 & Hicham el Guerrouj, 2004. Under your scenario, 400m split from 800m to 1200m will be sub-55, guaranteed. It will be wise for Matt C. not to go with Tim Cheruiyot. Matt C. under your first 800m pace scenario needs to sit in 5th or 6th place, wait & see.

Tamburlaine wrote:

Sopa--

While I'm proud of you for watching international races on your little computer, I'm not sure that makes you unique on a website dedicated to international racing, nor that those races are properly indicative of championship performance.

Am I saying Centro will win? No. But you're so infatuated with saying he will perform horribly that it's hard to avoid the conclusion he hurt your feelings when he declined to autograph your chest.

It's actually two big monitors. It makes me quite unique here, as 50% of the people posting here do not know any results run by international competition this year. Did you know that France has two 3:31-3:32 runners this year that probably won't even make the final? Centro still will have to beat those to be in it, not even mentioning the better elite runners. He still has to show that he's better than Hocker, who at the moment is the best American this year.

Not that Centro's bad. Quite contrary - he is in great shape. But right now there 7-8 people that are better in any scenario. Which makes it an amazing year for mid distance fans.

I'm genuinely confused by something: why do people here act like 2016 was a fluke when OG 1500s have run tactically for years? It's as if a strange, trollish desire to neg on Centro has engendered a total amnesia about track and field history.

In any case, I'm intrigued by the prediction of Jakob over Tim. It stands to reason Jakob is stronger this year than last. I'm also inclined to think that Tim's OT performance back in Kenya last month is a sign of missteps to come. If I were a betting man, I'd put down money on the favorite flopping. It happened in 1996, in 2000, in 2008 (sort of), in 2012, and in 2016. Seems likely to happen again.

For the record I wasn't really a fan of Centro either but if I am fair I think it was just because I was really disappointed in the 2016 race. Even my home country athlete Nick Willis got a bronze which is great but he should never have gotten a bronze medal in that race.

So he has run the equivalent of 3:32 basically by himself. He definitely needs a couple of seconds which I think he would have had with the right competition. He should be in the conversation because I think you win a medal if you can run around 3:30. If you measured everything out on paper then you are talking 1-10 places could be within a second or two. Tim and Jakob will likely take 1 and 2 but 3 could be anyone up to about 10 places. Anyone who has never run under 3:33 I would put at the back of that group.

The other part of the conversation is missing is the ability peak at the right time which we do through periodization. I believe Peter Snell mentioned problems like this when he won has second. Olympics. Lydiard held him back from doing speedwork early in his training so he didn't have the times going into the Olympics and he just had to trust that the training. Similarly, Peter Snell injured himself (stress fracture 9 months before the Olympics).

Harambe wrote:

Centro is on another level tactically.

Who told you that? He front ran a 3:50 OG final. There is literally nothing more tactically primitive than front running.

Do you really think he will get to front run an international race ever again?

Armstronglivs wrote:

2016 is the past. Centrowitz is at best an outsider to medal in 2021. I doubt that anyone outside the US sees him as a contender at Tokyo. I think Willis - who has medaled twice in the event - is the better runner. Centro's 2016 was a fluke. The race won't be repeated in any way.

Can someone explain to me how medaling in a 3:50 race is any easier than medaling in a 3:29 race? If it's so easy to win gold in a 3:50 race then why didn't the 3:26 drug-cheat medal? The race is so slow, by my impeccable track-math he should have ran a 48-second last lap and dusted everyone for gold! If it's such a fluke to medal in a 3:50 race, let alone win, then why were all the medalists former world medalists (with one being an olympic gold medalist), you would think you would have some scrub also-rans up front since it's so easy to medal in a tactical, 3:50 race.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Star wrote:

There were 12 spots scheduled for the final in Rio, like usual.

A 13th, Bustos from Spain, was added after getting last in his semis but being placed in the final because he was impeded.

And what happened with a 14th man - Aman Wote - who had a DNS mark in the final?

Aman Wote was a DNS in round 1, not the final.

It looks they did have larger fields for round 1, but 12 fir the semis and finals plus any extra in on appeal.

Sopa--

Strong runners come out of the woodwork every Olympic year. There are always a couple who fly under the radar and show up big (see Makhloufi in 2012). But you seem to be operating under the assumption that the best SB's will make the final, when in fact it's quite common to see 3:31 runners fail to get that far. Sometimes a SB is a sign of things to come, other times it's the sign of a peak that's in the past.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Centro is on another level tactically.

Who told you that? He front ran a 3:50 OG final. There is literally nothing more tactically primitive than front running.

Do you really think he will get to front run an international race ever again?

It was so tactically primitive, yet he was the one who won. Why didn't the other tactical geniuses win? Were all the sub-3:30 guys just too slow? Tell me what it was about Centro that made him win in 2016. Was it is 1:44 800 speed (even though multiple 1:43 and 1:42 guys were in the race)? Clearly it was not his ability to run against the rail and surge just at the right times to not allow anyone to pass him and break his stride, all the while saving up enough energy to run a 50 second last lap.

Tamburlaine wrote:

Sopa--

Strong runners come out of the woodwork every Olympic year. There are always a couple who fly under the radar and show up big (see Makhloufi in 2012). But you seem to be operating under the assumption that the best SB's will make the final, when in fact it's quite common to see 3:31 runners fail to get that far. Sometimes a SB is a sign of things to come, other times it's the sign of a peak that's in the past.

+100, you get it.

Take Centro for example, he ran his 800 and 1500 PR's in 2015 and finished 8th that year. Look at the medalists most years and you will see how common it is for guys outside even the top 10 to medal. In 2012, I think Makhloufi was ranked 6th, while Iggy and Manzano were 20-MF-3rd and 4th that year.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Centro is on another level tactically.

Who told you that? He front ran a 3:50 OG final. There is literally nothing more tactically primitive than front running.

Do you really think he will get to front run an international race ever again?

When people say that was tactical genius I just don't get it. After a slow start where noone wants to take the lead, Centro goes to the front and slows the f..k down even more. Nohing happens for 900m, then the pack picks up pace but nobody wants to take the lead from Centro still. On the last lap, Centro unleashes a great kick and because he's ahead he can't be caught. Nobody in that field could close in 48-49, which is what would have been needed.

I don't call that tactical genius, i call that the most idiotic field (and race) ever.

It looks idiotic only if you know the result in advance. But put yourself in Makh's shoes, or Kiprop's--the former of whom had just gotten silver in the 800m with a 1:42, the latter of whom had won the WC's in 2015, 2013, and 2011. Each of these guys had killer kicks. Ditto Willis (OG silver), Iguider (OG bronze), and Souleiman. If you are one of these guys, and the race goes out slow, why wouldn't you take a gamble on your capacity to close?

To act like these guys all had a mental lapse is simply wrong, and it betrays a complete lack of appreciation for the sport. Letsrunners suffer from a strange fetishization for time trialing, as if it's the only "real" form of racing. I take it this is because going hard from the gun seems more stronger or macho, but unless you're Timmy C., it's generally tactical suicide.

Couldn't agree more. It wasn't Centro's tactical skills, more like the idiocy from the rest of the field. Good thing everyone learned from that blunder and we have people like Tim who is not gonna let such a thing happen again.

And frankly, if such a disaster would happen again, the podium would look like this: Kerr, Hocker, Lewandowski / Makhloufi.

Yeah so we all would rather have runners like Makhloufi? Come out of the Mexican bushes once every 4 years for a medal?

Let it Rupp wrote:

SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP LALALALALALALALALL!!!!!

was that a Rock reference?

If yes, nicely done, made me laugh.

Tamburlaine wrote:

To act like these guys all had a mental lapse is simply wrong, and it betrays a complete lack of appreciation for the sport. Letsrunners suffer from a strange fetishization for time trialing, as if it's the only "real" form of racing. I take it this is because going hard from the gun seems more stronger or macho, but unless you're Timmy C., it's generally tactical suicide.

Yeah, and as a result, all of them lost to an outsider - Centro. That's just lack of balls if you ask me. If I was Ben Blankenship and had placed 8th in a 3:50 race, I would have asked myself, wouldn't it been better to front run and get my own 2 minutes of TV time instead.

BTW, there is a better one lap race at the olympics, it's called 400m. When I watch 1500m I wanna see 1500m.

T&F utility man (200-3000)m wrote:

Not so easy.

If 800m split is in 1:58.xx to 2:02.xx range and Timothy Cheruiyot makes it through the rounds without being tripped or some other mishap, I guarantee you the 400m split from 800m to 1200m will not be 57.xx as in your example. If Timothy C. is in the race and he allows a slow first 800m, Cheruiyot will more than equal Jurgen Straub, 1980 & Hicham el Guerrouj, 2004. Under your scenario, 400m split from 800m to 1200m will be sub-55, guaranteed. It will be wise for Matt C. not to go with Tim Cheruiyot. Matt C. under your first 800m pace scenario needs to sit in 5th or 6th place, wait & see.

I don't necessarily disagree because the quality of what we believe will be the final will be higher than obviously the trials. I don't know if Cheruiyot is quite at El Guerrojou level though - in Athens he ran 53.28 from 800-1200m off 2.02 at 800m and he was the WR holder (still 2+ seconds faster than Cheruiyot). The 1980 final is a little misleading because they went through in 2.05.05 which with the current group of guys I just can't see happening again.

This is why I think Centro is in a good spot. If the pace is slow early (and it may well be that it isn't if T.C does what he usually does and front runs), I think his effort last night coupled with what he did at the trials, puts him in a place to handle 55 seconds for that 3rd lap off 1.59-2.01 pace which is what I could see happening. Now we are at 1200m in 2.54-55 and you are looking at 39 seconds for the last 300m to medal and maybe even win. Is Centro capable of this? Yes he is so then it becomes a game of who positions themselves best to stay out of trouble, dodge bodies and get as clean a run as possible. He's proven he is capable of doing all of these things very well.

Star wrote:

As far as Centro’s chances in Tokyo, he will execute a good race.

Some of the others will choke under the pressure.

Kiprop was dominant champion in 2011 and 2015 but bombed in 2012 and 2016.

Cheruiyot crushed the 2019 championship but was just recently 4th at the Kenyan trials.

I know he bounced back in Monaco but can we guarantee he will be mentally right for Tokyo?

Jim Ryun was upset in 1968. He fell in 1972.

Steve Ovett was upset in 1980.

Steve Scott and Steve Cram underperformed in 1984.

Everyone crapped out in 1988. (Bile, Aouita and Cram)

Morceli bombed in 1992.

El G fell in 1996 and was upset in 2000.

Lagat was actually ranked #1 in 2004 and lost.

Ramzi got busted in 2008.

Is it good to be favored in the Olympic 1500m?

All this shows is that it is difficult for any individual athlete to win gold in the Olympics. There is a reason why there has only been 1 gold medal repeat champion in the 1500 in Olympic history. (Coe - and his win in 1980 was in a field somewhat watered down). The odds for Centro repeating as champion are very low compared with the field.

Yes, Centro is a great tactical racer but there is still luck involved. Some favorites will need to underperform, there can't be any incidents or mistakes in the rounds (in 2019 Centro only advanced on time), there can't be any injuries or unexpected illness (Centro 2017). etc. Lagat didn't even make the final in 2008. Of course it's possible for Centro to win gold in Tokyo but the odds are really against this happening. I think it's more like that there will be a surprise winner/medalists, like in 1988, 1992, 2012, or 2016.

I don't think Centro's race last night really meant anything that would change his changes of medaling. It was a PR but it also showed that he needs a race to be tactical and slower than 3:32 for him to have any shot of winning.