This is very easy
On Sunday June the 27th, Centro ran a 1500m in 3.35.34 with splits of 58.87, 60.37, 57.06, 39.05. Last lap 52.8'ish.
That performance in this style of race is historically comparable to World and Olympic medal winning performances of the past. Point being if the Olympic final was this type of race, history would suggest that Centro would be right where he needs to be to walk away with some hardware.
Last night he ran what amounted to a solo 3.49.26 mile. At a high school track, with nothing on the line (the AR was never in the picture but kudos to him for allowing that to be part of the narrative in order to generate some interest). I think some of you idiots are forgetting a couple of things - 1) How good a 3.49.26 mile is (39th best EVER) 2) How uncommon a mile that fast is (fun fact: In the last decade there have been on 9 performances better than that and all of them were done at either Hayward in the pre mile or Bislett in the dream mile). 3) and most importantly, how tough it is to time trial a full distance at that level of performance.
So 9 days out from the first round, his last two performances were a historically elite 1500m effort in a championship style (approx 2.00 at 800m) race, and a solo 3.49.26 mile in very difficult mental/mindset situation.
Look Centro's chances always come down to the style of race - but they do for 95% of the field. If it goes like the Doha final he won't win and probably won't medal - but that has been the same his entire career and it was also the same for Willis and many other extremely good runners. I mean who predicted the 2016 final would be 3.00 at the bell, pretty much on par with a womens race these days?
If Centros chances are super bleak it has nothing to do with his shape. It is all about the fact there is a Kenyan guy out there who has the juice (ahem) to run sub 3.30 gun to tape in a final and a Norwegian kid who can match him. If that happens the chances for everyone not named Cherioyot and Ingebritsen are weak. If it doesn't his chances are as good as anyones and you would have to be an idiot to count out the guy who has actually been there and done it before.
If I am Centro right now, 3 hours into my flight to Tokyo, I am feeling extremely good about where I am.