I miss the 10K heats.
I miss the 10K heats.
Good read. I would say Bor has a higher chance just due to the weakness of the event this year.
The Joe Klecker line was great.
Bumping to evaluate JWH's fine work at mid-point:
Mu - Clearly not high enough, Mu was the clear class of the field. JWH's thoughts on her potential were high enough, just less faith in her than warranted in retrospect.
Coburn - I can't knock the number here. Just a disastrous performance. Chemutai and Frerichs were the big shocks, but Coburn way underperformed as did Yavi and Chepkoech.
Rogers - Perfect number, this was really a 50-50 proposition. Reekie went too hard at 200 to go and Raevyn pulled it out. She also didnt AQ into the finals. So maybe it should be lower? But she got the medal so....
Ajee- Too high a number, but I think the 1:57 helped mislead. Also very strong performances by Alemu, Wang and Alex Bell which were hard to anticipate. But Wilson was struggling more than could be easily seen.
Clayton - I think good number, he made the final and looked great. But then his biggest strength in some races (tactics) was a gigantic weakness.
Bryce- Same analysis to Ajee. There were more underlying injuries/issues than we knew about.
Bor- Too high as it turned out, he did not look good and the top 3 were very solid as it turned out. An 8:08 at his best type guy would not have held off Kigen's kick.
Frerichs - What a surprise! I don't fault JWH but I think 9/10 times, she gets a medal. She looked excellent in the heat and finals and had a low-risk tactic.
Jewett - Fair number, but we'll never know. Considering how nobody pushed it to the final maybe a redo of his USA finals could've shocked the field.
Yared - N/A
Karissa/Keter/Ferlic/Cranny- right-on
Fisher- No medal but he exceeded all expectations even a pretty lofty 8th, that being said a medal was not close just yet
Woody- Too high, just can't trust Woody to hang with a pack
MacLean- fair, she just needs more seasoning
Schneider- correct, tough luck with her heat
Klecker- my fave analysis but yeah, maybe in 3 years!
Val- yep, though she did great to make the Final
14. Paul Chelimo - Men’s 5k - 7% - He medaled in this event in Rio (silver) and the London WCs (bronze), and looked strong winning the U.S. title this year. He was 7th in Doha, clocking 13:04 to the winner’s 12:58, and I expect Tokyo will be run in a similar fashion, if not faster. Against a field full of sub-12:50 runners, 6th-10th seems far more probable than a medal.
16. Molly Seidel - Women’s Marathon - 5% - I give her the nod as our best (slim) women’s marathon medal hope. After placing 2nd in her debut marathon at the Trials, she lowered her PB to 2:25:13 in placing 6th in London last year. This year she’s won two half marathons in 68-69 minutes and lowered her 10,000 PB to 32:02. Given the nature of the Olympic marathon, I suppose it’s conceivable that enough runners blow up that she winds up in 3rd.
Bump for decent spots on Paul & Molly. Spot on on Molly not being ranked in the 30s and specifically sighting the unpredictable nature of the marathon. Paul maybe should've been higher given his past medals but who knew the Ethiopians would be so far out of it for this race.
Yeah once we saw the carnage of the 5,000 heats, Chelimo suddenly bumped up a good deal. Going into the final, it felt to me like the medalists were almost 100% going to come from Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Kimeli, Chelimo, Ahmed, Katir and Knight. Chelimo's scrappiness/antics kinda stole on from the fitter athlete in Kimeli IMO, but if it doesn't get DQ'ed (Chelimo says there were no Kenyan officials on-hand to appeal) it's legal.
**that's what Kimeli said I mean.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Rest in Peace Adrian Lehmann - 2:11 Swiss marathoner. Dies of heart attack.
I think Letesenbet Gidey might be trying to break 14 this Saturday
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing