Galen Has No CHANCE in Tokyo Olympic Marathon

career wrote:

Where would you predict Galen finishes?

I think with everyone else wearing alphaflys, his relative weakness compared to the Salazar days and the competition, he finishes 10-15.

If I recall I predicted earlier in the thread a 2:15 and 12th place finish.

Rupp will handle the heat no problem, same as he did in la trials, and rio

also - per another post- chelimo is US best chance at gold, rupp will get a medal again off tactics

A lot will just depend on how Rupp is able to maintain fitness as he ages. He’s 35 and should have some marathon time left. Kipchoge is 36 (at least) and is still at it but people age differently. Rupp has also had some injury problems. If age hasn’t gotten to him too much and he’s fit, you can’t count him out (granted in 16 he may have had an unfair advantage with the shoes). Top 10 is probably a good target.

Random question xyz wrote:

A lot will just depend on how Rupp is able to maintain fitness as he ages. He’s 35 and should have some marathon time left. Kipchoge is 36 (at least) and is still at it but people age differently. Rupp has also had some injury problems. If age hasn’t gotten to him too much and he’s fit, you can’t count him out (granted in 16 he may have had an unfair advantage with the shoes). Top 10 is probably a good target.

This. His 10k at the Trials is irrelevant. I don't recall him winning the '16 10k before Rio. I think his age and current health status are bigger factors. If he's healthy at the start line, I think he'll run well (top 5-6). He's proven time after time that he handles big moments exceptionally well.

JamesD2 wrote:

Troothsayer wrote:

...Galen ends his Olympic career with an epic failure, maybe a 12th place 2:15.

You really think he won't make the U.S. team for 2024? The next Trials marathon is what, 2-1/2 years away? Not sure I would bet against him being top 3 in the U.S. at that time, though I suppose he might just retire. Seems to me more likely that 2024 will be his last Olympics.

He at least already confirmed he was running the marathon for Eugene World Champs next year

He won the 10k trials before Rio. He was in at least 26:50 shape judging by the Rio race.

Although I don't think his 10k fitness is the same, probably more like 27:30's in time trial conditions, if he's made more gains aerobically, it makes up for it. I agree that the relative advantage he got from the super shoes is probably gone, but you all are missing one thing. In Rio, he doubled back from the 10k vs now where he has all his eggs in the marathon so he's not doing split training. Yes, the training isn't much different, but it might make enough difference in terms of getting a medal. He's a proven heat and championship runner. Peachtree worried me, but it didn't make me count his out as a medal contender either. Analyzing off-races in a marathon cycle is pointless sometimes.

Honestly,

I would put lelisa desisa as the favorite for gold. He won Doha in conditions very similar and has won dubai in past, he has a good record in conditions with heat. I will also place my money heavily on Alemu Bekele Gebre, Ethiopian who runs for Bahrain. 2:06 guy but consistently runs 2:06. Shura Kitata will also be a factor. As far as Kenyans go, I dont really see any of them breaking into podium

You would think if Galen is entered, he would have a chance of winning.

Team USA marathon should finish in the top 20; somewhere between 10 - 20th position.

Galen is a very good runner. He could do well at the Olympics. The competition will be fierce though. If he is feeling good on race day he could do very well.

No horse in the race, but the idea that Rupp should have run a 10k PR at the Olympic Trials is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

RBKboi wrote:

No horse in the race, but the idea that Rupp should have run a 10k PR at the Olympic Trials is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

Nobody said that, but he should have won. For him, it was a pretty crappy performance and hardly a confidence builder for Tokyo.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

RBKboi wrote:

No horse in the race, but the idea that Rupp should have run a 10k PR at the Olympic Trials is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

Nobody said that, but he should have won. For him, it was a pretty crappy performance and hardly a confidence builder for Tokyo.

It was a slow race. He does not kick as fast as the others in this situation. He stayed in touch comfortably.

career wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Nobody said that, but he should have won. For him, it was a pretty crappy performance and hardly a confidence builder for Tokyo.

It was a slow race. He does not kick as fast as the others in this situation. He stayed in touch comfortably.

His goal for the race was to stay in touch comfortably and to get out kicked by 5 guys? No one with medal aspirations in the marathon would do that. The last 3 Americans to win an Olympic medal in the marathon, Sorter, Meb and Rupp all won the trials 10000.

His OT effort indicates he's not going to be competitive in Tokyo. Maybe he'll turn it around somehow, but it's unlikely.

I'm gonna play along with your complete and utter incompetence.

We are talking about performing in the heat right? I believe the 2016 Olympic Marathon trials in L.A. was in the heat correct? I believe Galen won the race correct? It doesn't matter the strength of the field, he had to perform in warm conditions, and running 2:11 in warm conditions is pretty good. I believe the 2016 Olympic Games were in Rio and in exceedingly warm/humid conditions right? I believe he medaled and by all standards that is pretty good, correct? Is he gonna win in Tokyo? Who knows, but to write him off so blatantly using his "Size" as a reason he won't do well in the heat...What is that? Where you really show your stupidity is when you accuse him of wearing "Cheater" shoes. So in the end you just don't like Galen. Right?

Be a big boy and just say that you don't like him, but don't try to use some moronic logic about size and heat and age to justify your complete incompetence. With regard to my knowledge of the sport, I forgot more about running than you'll ever know...Seriously!

Correction:

2020 Oly Trials in L.A.

Didn't read most of the comments but would say he has a decent medal shot. He has run well in the heat before and showed that he was in fine form in the trials 10000.

Aouita 84 wrote:

[quote]With regard to my knowledge of the sport, I forgot more about running than you'll ever know...Seriously!

Sorry about your dementia. I offer my sincere contrition for ruthlessly eviscerating you without knowing about your dementia.

Milethon wrote:

Didn't read most of the comments but would say he has a decent medal shot. He has run well in the heat before and showed that he was in fine form in the trials 10000.

No Galen was not in fine form at the Trials 10000m. Galen used to be able to toy with the U.S. field at 10000m. Those days are gone for good.