Galen Has No CHANCE in Tokyo Olympic Marathon

Jerry Maguire wrote:

Troothsayer wrote:

It sure looks like the day of the marathon is likely to have something like a high of 85 and a low of 77. These are long range forecasts BUT Galen is a bigger guy for a world class marathoner and the heat will take its toll on him. He usually runs fairly smart but he is also lacking his former world class track ability. This looks like a recipe for disaster as Galen ends his Olympic career with an epic failure, maybe a 12th place 2:15.

Galen Rupp is known for doing really well in the heat. I don’t know what you are talking about.

Of course you don’t.

I heard he certified the course.

Only like 5 people will likely show up, unless these shoes magically save everyone's legs and give them all a good day.

Troothsayer wrote:

You might want to cease your incessant obsession with me. Creepy dude.

While the old platitude of "don't feed the troll" is generally sound advice, in this case the scraps he's tossing you are actually generating discussion so perhaps its best he continues for a bit.

The great Galen Rupp will not WIN the Tokyo marathon, but he might do pretty good just like in Rio, as long as he does the ice hat thing.

People may think it was Al Sal who told him to do that, but if you search these boards you'll find plenty of examples of ME saying marathoners do best when they take the time to cool off their head, including by dumping water on it, and shaving it bald so it can sweat efficiently, and so forth.

Now that Al Sal can't give Ruppie any advice any more I'll try to think of another clever trick he can use. I'm sure he'll read this and stay tuned.

Part of Galen’s problem is he is no longer a great runner. For example, the best marathoners in the world, and there are not many of them, run roughly 29:00 10000m pace for the marathon. However, Galen can no longer run 29:00 as easily as he used to because it is much closer to his 10000m race pace than it used to be. So because he has lost that weapon, Galen is reduced to being a slightly better Billy Rodgers. That won’t cut it in 2021. Sorry folks. The delusions will end next month.

Troothsayer wrote:

Part of Galen’s problem is he is no longer a great runner. For example, the best marathoners in the world, and there are not many of them, run roughly 29:00 10000m pace for the marathon. However, Galen can no longer run 29:00 as easily as he used to because it is much closer to his 10000m race pace than it used to be. So because he has lost that weapon, Galen is reduced to being a slightly better Billy Rodgers. That won’t cut it in 2021. Sorry folks. The delusions will end next month.

Who's running that pace in a hot Olympic games marathon? Lol

Also...we don't know his current 10k fitness bc his focus is on training for marathons while racing the occasional 10k....lack of data doesn't prove or disprove anything about what he can "easily" run when not in a big training block.

All NOP members ran really well in heat, no way Rupp doesn't use the training as rio.

85? That's pretty comfy.

there is a huge list of people who are going to look stupid when galen fails at tokyo. I dont want him to, but its what everything points to. except one thing....

you need to be able to look beyond the stars and stripes. even your friends sometimes find it embarassing.

2:15 could be the winning time or top three. Look back to past world championship and Olympic marathons when it was super hot.

Please. Galen will place Top 3 and then bed your mom right after.

Troothsayer wrote:

Part of Galen’s problem is he is no longer a great runner. For example, the best marathoners in the world, and there are not many of them, run roughly 29:00 10000m pace for the marathon. However, Galen can no longer run 29:00 as easily as he used to because it is much closer to his 10000m race pace than it used to be. So because he has lost that weapon, Galen is reduced to being a slightly better Billy Rodgers. That won’t cut it in 2021. Sorry folks. The delusions will end next month.

Well that’s a big pivot from talking about the heat (proven wrong) to just saying he’s old and won’t compete.

I agree he is on the way down; his peak was 2012-2018 or so. But he still has a shot at medalling. He won’t in future years.

Wasn't his bronze medal a result of great heat preparation?

If it is as hot as suggested, I think you could see a surprisingly good show from Callum Hawkins. Since his collapse Melbourne, he's been very good preparing for hot conditions. Two 4th places at World's, including the Doha sweat-fest suggests he can peak for championships as well.

As others said, didn't Galen medal in Rio? Also, how does being a bigger guy (for a top marathoner) make him less able to handle heat.? I was only 115 1bs in high school and I always tanked in the hot races.

Here is my hot take. Due to a COVID breakout in the Olympic Village, the Games are called off before the first week is over.

Might be because of mass infections

Might happen because some big delegation pulls all their athletes in fear or protest (Ex.-USA men's basketball or USA women's gymnastics see half of the squad kicked out due to COVID positives, says "F this!" Unfair! We're out!!!".)

May get called off due to an athlete's strike over safety or restricted movement.

You say that not even knowing how many holes are going to be in his shirt or how many ice-hat changes he will do.

Heh. I'm not a fan but I still wish him well. I think he will do fine for the heat all considered.

It's all about the showmanship at this point and inspiring the next generation because unless the US is going to start importing all its Olympians we need to inspire fresh blood coming up through high school.

You think maybe Nike/NOP will give him that new wrist cooling technology that makes you feel colder? Can they use experimental technology like that in a sanctioned race?

Troothsayer wrote:

...Galen ends his Olympic career with an epic failure, maybe a 12th place 2:15.

You really think he won't make the U.S. team for 2024? The next Trials marathon is what, 2-1/2 years away? Not sure I would bet against him being top 3 in the U.S. at that time, though I suppose he might just retire. Seems to me more likely that 2024 will be his last Olympics.

Troothsayer wrote:

This looks like a recipe for disaster as Galen ends his Olympic career with an epic failure, maybe a 12th place 2:15.

you think 12th is running 2:15??

Tokyo Olympic marathon will not be run in Tokyo but in …, https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a30283314/olympic-marathon-course/