Runner vanished in the Bay area, no trace found. Update. He's been found. RIP: Philip Kreycik.

Could've also been abducted/kidnapped as well.

This is such a heartbreaking story. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see many possible positive outcomes at this point. I guess #1 (staging disappearance) would be 'positive' but would be an incredibly shyty thing to do.

I don't know why this story hit me so hard - I've been following it non-stop since the second day he was missing.

While I've run a sub 3 hr marathon and a sub 1:20 half with a phone in my side stretch pocket I don't recommend it.

And going faster is worse.

Even when I run on roads, I do the following:

1. I tell my wife the general route and timeline ahead of time (e.g. "I'll be running around Beef Park for 60-90 minutes")

2. I carry my phone with me in my FlipBelt

3. I make sure the GPS is enabled on my phone so my wife can ping it in an emergency

4. I try to avoid locations with no people (e.g. the warehouse area near my house on a weekend evening). Don't want to run into a drug deal in progress, or pass out and no one passes by until the next day.

5. I wear very light clothing. If I'm going in the evening, I wear a reflective green construction-worker vest

6. I don't 'improvise' trail running, I stick to the script

7. I'm conservative with weather? 102F and blistering sun? Yeah, I'm running 1-mile laps around my house and drinking some water very single mile.

Another person mentioned they carry a whistle they can use as well, which seems like a great idea.

Yeah, I'm probably overly paranoid, but I don't want my wife to worry, and my kids to grow up without me.

Ernest wrote:

This is unfortunately common.

This is not common. That's part of the intrigue.

B Franklin wrote:

what is that? wrote:

I think this is an idiotic take. A mountain lion could have come upon him at night, if he had become dehydrated and passed out. The lion could have then carried his remains away, etc. So NO, you can't GUARANTEE it!

A mountain lion could have attacked him at night, but no way is a mountain lion capable of cleaning up all his remains.

True, and any remaining carrion would attract crows and vultures which are very easy to spot. Coyotes are another possibility. They don't usually attack people but if someone was injured or incapacitated they might.

Also, it looks like the park connects to a larger open space to the west. But there are still people using on those trails every day so if the body were on or near trail it like would have been spotted by now even if it was beyond the search area.

It's very puzzling and very sad.

the beagle wrote:

Ernest wrote:

This is unfortunately common.

This is not common. That's part of the intrigue.

There are something like 3000 open missing persons cases in California.

For a sense of how many relate to misadventures in the wild...

hiker

Google tunes this link based on IP geolocation, but wherever you are, I'm sure you'd get endless hits:

Two most likely possibilities are 1) kidnap/murder and 2) self disappearance to start a new life.

Not lost/unfindable and not taken by non-human predator.

Ernest wrote:

the beagle wrote:

This is not common. That's part of the intrigue.

There are something like 3000 open missing persons cases in California.

For a sense of how many relate to misadventures in the wild...

https://news.google.com/search?q=missing

hiker

Google tunes this link based on IP geolocation, but wherever you are, I'm sure you'd get endless hits:

There is a wide, wide difference between "missing persons cases" (common) and an experienced trail runner disappearing without a trace on an 8 mile run (uncommon). That was a disingenuous moving of the goalposts.

He was an Energy Efficiency Analyst working for a government-sponsored agency, Clean Energy Solutions Center. Maybe he was murdered because of something he’d uncovered or seen. May be far fetched but so are most other scenarios. They were searching within a couple hours after he was due back and no sign at all.

Does Garmin give off a signal, meaning could it be ping'd?

People are underestimating the likelihood of murder.

It is vastly more likely he was murdered than that he faked his own death. Especially considering that no circumstantial evidence has pointed to a faked death and no motive has surfaced for why he would do such a thing.

People forget that serial killers have not gone away and that in this day and age of ubiquitous phones, DNA evidence, and security cameras, there are very few easier ways for them to get away with murder than by picking off lone individuals in the wilderness.

Imagine this: He is running, when he hears somebody a quarter mile off the trail, slightly uphill, yelling for help. He heads towards them, and when he's nearly there, he gets stabbed or shot point blank by a pistol equipped with a silencer.

This person had been waiting for a lone runner to go by in order to lure them away.

They do whatever sick things they want, then hide the body in a pit they dug then cover it with rocks, or they put it in a hollow log.

Unfortunately, this type of thing does happen and is near impossible to prevent. In any population of hundreds of millions of people, there are always bound to be a few dozen freaks among them who do horrible things like this. Thankfully this type of stuff is very uncommon. It's really not anything to live in fear about because you're about as likely to be struck by lightning.

The list of persons vanishing on an "8 mile trail run" is small. List of persons vanishing in the wilderness is quite a long one - which is how "common" was defined in both the triggering and responding posts.

the beagle wrote:

Ernest wrote:

There are something like 3000 open missing persons cases in California.

For a sense of how many relate to misadventures in the wild...

https://news.google.com/search?q=missing

hiker

Google tunes this link based on IP geolocation, but wherever you are, I'm sure you'd get endless hits:

There is a wide, wide difference between "missing persons cases" (common) and an experienced trail runner disappearing without a trace on an 8 mile run (uncommon). That was a disingenuous moving of the goalposts.

Really though, by FAR the most likely possibility is that he killed himself but did want to be remembered as a suicide, so he went somewhere he would never be found before doing the deed.

It is not at all uncommon that suicidal people attempt to engineer their deaths to look like accidents. I'm not going to list any of the methods by which they tend to do this, on the off chance I should be responsible for providing some sort of inspiration.

jdjjdjdnfjdieie wrote:

Really though, by FAR the most likely possibility is that he killed himself but did want to be remembered as a suicide, so he went somewhere he would never be found before doing the deed.

It is not at all uncommon that suicidal people attempt to engineer their deaths to look like accidents. I'm not going to list any of the methods by which they tend to do this, on the off chance I should be responsible for providing some sort of inspiration.

typo: did NOT want to be remembered as a suicide

Ernest wrote:

The list of persons vanishing on an "8 mile trail run" is small.

List of persons vanishing in the wilderness is quite a long one - which is how "common" was defined in both the triggering and responding posts.

the beagle wrote:

There is a wide, wide difference between "missing persons cases" (common) and an experienced trail runner disappearing without a trace on an 8 mile run (uncommon). That was a disingenuous moving of the goalposts.

There is a wide, wide difference between "vanishing in the wilderness" (uncommon) and "missing persons cases" (common).

Animal attack, murder, or planned disappearance are possibilities - but if Vegas posted odds, they'd be LONG. I live in a large city surrounded by recreational wilderness. Reports of missing hikers (some being trail runners) are a news mainstay. Anecdotally, in countless cases splashing the headlines where missing hikers were later found (alive or not), every one was due to persons being caught by adverse weather, going off trail/becoming lost, or having a medical emergency (slip/fall, falling rock, terrain hazard, heart attack, etc.) Usually the person was alone or became separated from a group.

the beagle wrote:

Ernest wrote:

The list of persons vanishing on an "8 mile trail run" is small.

List of persons vanishing in the wilderness is quite a long one - which is how "common" was defined in both the triggering and responding posts.

There is a wide, wide difference between "vanishing in the wilderness" (uncommon) and "missing persons cases" (common).

Common is relative. As just noted in another post, in my neck of the woods, and many other places, wilderness disappearances are regular thing - seems we can't go more than a few days hearing about one. I call that common.

If it helps you move on, feel free to substitute "common" with "not uncommon".

B Franklin wrote:

what is that? wrote:

I think this is an idiotic take. A mountain lion could have come upon him at night, if he had become dehydrated and passed out. The lion could have then carried his remains away, etc. So NO, you can't GUARANTEE it!

A mountain lion could have attacked him at night, but no way is a mountain lion capable of cleaning up all his remains.

It can definitely happen during the day. I've posted on the forums in the past about a close mountain lion encounter in Quicksilver Park in San Jose that happened mid-day, maybe around noon. It went right by me almost within reach, focused on my dog in front of me, before veering off at the last moment.

Stebbins wrote:

A mountain lion would have zero interest in dragging a 160 pound man very far, and even less interest in covering its tracks.

I agree with the part.