Runner vanished in the Bay area, no trace found. Update. He's been found. RIP: Philip Kreycik.

Are they using search dogs (hounds that can sniff)?

what is that? wrote:

Are they using search dogs (hounds that can sniff)?

Sorry, I just read that they did have dogs. Good hound dogs would probably be the best resource for this type of thing, at this point?

what is that? wrote:

what is that? wrote:

Are they using search dogs (hounds that can sniff)?

Sorry, I just read that they did have dogs. Good hound dogs would probably be the best resource for this type of thing, at this point?

A good hound dog with a good tracker as handler. These teams are real experts. The good tracker can look at tiny loosen dirt or rock and rocky trails and know which way someone went. A good hound dog can tell which way a sent goes because it is stronger in the direction someone went. It takes the dog not long to know which direction the scent is strongest. Even a regular dog can tell the difference in a person's scent based on body part. Right and left feet have different scents a dog can sense. . . . Our friend had a dog which loved to hide one of her shoes. It was always the right shoe, regardless of the shoe. Her left shoes were not as interesting.

answerz wrote:

ClaytonHammer wrote:

I just don't understand the rationale behind not taking a phone with you, especially on days with inclement weather, rough terrain, etc. It could save your life, or help you to save another.

Because having a phone is annoying when running when you consider the thousands of miles run compared to the risk of needing a phone. Shorts, socks and shoes only.

Yep. I don't run with a phone either, but these days I usually run in very heavily-used parks or bike trails, and I'm never far from help if needed. Back in the day, I used to go for training runs of up to 35 miles on trails in CA, and of course we didn't have cell phones then. If I were doing it today though, I'd take a phone on such a run.

I can see not taking a phone for an 8-mile run though, especially on a loop course. I hope he's ok.

I can guarantee it wasn't a mountain lion... no way that cat is prowling mid-day, broad daylight in 100+ heat. And if it was an animal, they'd have found clothing, remains, etc. The only way he's still in the park is if he became desperate/disoriented and wandered way off the beaten path in search of water/help/shade. If he's still in the park, he was seeking shade/coolness and is curled up somewhere, underneath something, and out of sight.

The remaining question for me is how big of an area was left unsearched... it's hard to tell by the map. The only thing I've read is that they've covered 100m off the trail and like 90% of the entire park... but what about the interconnecting wilderness areas nearby? There appears to be a vast open space due west...

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10113606177707601&set=g.227893015854510

Stebbins wrote:

I can guarantee it wasn't a mountain lion... no way that cat is prowling mid-day, broad daylight in 100+ heat. And if it was an animal, they'd have found clothing, remains, etc. The only way he's still in the park is if he became desperate/disoriented and wandered way off the beaten path in search of water/help/shade. If he's still in the park, he was seeking shade/coolness and is curled up somewhere, underneath something, and out of sight.

This is a good point. It seems like some of the search was via drone. If he curled up under a bush, rock or whatever, there's a chance the search team could miss him...

After more reading, here is something that I think needs further investigation. One article said there were "cries for help" heard from a canyon that was in an area farther away than expected. An 'expert' stated it was probably an animal that was heard, and that lead was eventually discounted.

However, I'm reading a NYPost article (credible?) and it states "several people heard cries for help coming from a canyon", and then clarifies, "a family heard cries in a canyon near Sunol post office", and "After receiving the tip, two search group members went to the area and also head (sic) a call for help, the outlet reported." The 'outlet' was the SFGate, which stated, "After a family reported the sound, a group member and friend of Kreycik's went to the area and also heard a call for help. "

Questions:

(1) Shouldn't those people that heard cries, be separated and grilled (with hidden videotape for further review) for their testimony, to check exactly what they heard, how it sounded, etc.??

(2) Shouldn't they definitely send hound dogs down to that canyon (rather than rely upon opinions)?

Stebbins wrote:

I can guarantee it wasn't a mountain lion... no way that cat is prowling mid-day, broad daylight in 100+ heat. And if it was an animal, they'd have found clothing, remains, etc.

I think this is an idiotic take. A mountain lion could have come upon him at night, if he had become dehydrated and passed out. The lion could have then carried his remains away, etc. So NO, you can't GUARANTEE it!

Here are links to NYPost and SFGate articles:

https://nypost.com/2021/07/15/cries-heard-from-canyon-amid-search-for-missing-runner/

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/missing-runner-pleasanton-bay-area-phil-kreycik-16311371.php

I'll continue to read, but I think the testimony of the witnesses that heard the sounds should be double-checked, and they should send the hounds there to make absolutely sure it is not the spot, before discounting it.

what is that? wrote:

Stebbins wrote:

I can guarantee it wasn't a mountain lion... no way that cat is prowling mid-day, broad daylight in 100+ heat. And if it was an animal, they'd have found clothing, remains, etc.

I think this is an idiotic take. A mountain lion could have come upon him at night, if he had become dehydrated and passed out. The lion could have then carried his remains away, etc. So NO, you can't GUARANTEE it!

A mountain lion could have attacked him at night, but no way is a mountain lion capable of cleaning up all his remains.

what is that? wrote:

I'll continue to read, but I think the testimony of the witnesses that heard the sounds should be double-checked, and they should send the hounds there to make absolutely sure it is not the spot, before discounting it.

However, I'm not sure on the location of the canyon where cries were heard, relative to where his car was parked.

B Franklin wrote:

A mountain lion could have attacked him at night, but no way is a mountain lion capable of cleaning up all his remains.

That doesn't mean if remains were left under brush or in a hole, etc., that they are just going to jump out at you. It just means the search will likely be even more difficult, and hounds are probably the best (not foolproof, and probably expensive) option, and thermal imaging would take less importance under those circumstances.

They found a small rock with a bit of blood on it - testing showed it to be animal blood. The search team has found lost watches and other small items. If it was an animal attack, I doubt they'd miss it.

zzzz wrote:

Very solid runner. First run that I looked at, and he did 6 minute mile GAP (gradient adjusted pace) and faster on an 11 mile trail run with a decent 2,288ft climb/descending.

https://www.strava.com/activities/5538407404

Wow, I heard about this but didn't realize it was so close to home. The most recent run he has on Strava is right where I live and some of his connections are people I know. I have probably seen him around before on the trails.

There was another disappearance of an ultra runner around here back in December, but that guy went missing when he took a swim in the bay and was found a few weeks later. I really hope he turns up, but it doesn't sound good. I find it hard to believe that he got attacked by a person out there. The illegal grow idea sounds plausible, however that area doesn't seem remote enough for that kind of thing. But then again, Hayward isn't exactly remote either and apparently there was a big illegal grow there a few years ago. The area is mostly rolling hills that are green in the winter and spring but bone dry with almost no shade in the summer.

what is that? wrote:

Stebbins wrote:

I can guarantee it wasn't a mountain lion... no way that cat is prowling mid-day, broad daylight in 100+ heat. And if it was an animal, they'd have found clothing, remains, etc.

I think this is an idiotic take. A mountain lion could have come upon him at night, if he had become dehydrated and passed out. The lion could have then carried his remains away, etc. So NO, you can't GUARANTEE it!

You're entitled to think what you like, but zero chance this is a mountain lion. Even in the extremely unlikely chance a nearby lion sniffed him out and decided to eat him, there would be very visible clothing remains, blood, etc. in the area. A mountain lion would have zero interest in dragging a 160 pound man very far, and even less interest in covering its tracks. The notion that an animal would have carefully dragged a full grown man all the way outside of the search zone is ludicrous.

I think there are two scenarios left: (1) he planned his disappearance, or (2) he is out of sight and far away from where they thought he might be- technically outside of the park. If those trails back up against a large open space, it cannot be discounted how far a disoriented but very fit runner could potentially get off track. He could've stumbled along for 1-2 miles even in a bad physical condition if he thought he was moving in the right direction towards help.

People have probably already done this but, a lot of people who run around here tend to have favorite routes they run. There's a good chance he was running a route that he has already done several times on Strava.

Stebbins wrote:

You're entitled to think what you like, but zero chance this is a mountain lion. .(possibly).. (2) he is out of sight and far away from where they thought he might be-

So why do you think your option (2) could not be combined with the possibility of a mountain lion, making his remains hard to find so far??

bfef wrote:

People have probably already done this but, a lot of people who run around here tend to have favorite routes they run. There's a good chance he was running a route that he has already done several times on Strava.

Yeah no I looked and I don't see any runs in that area, going back to January.

bfef wrote:

People have probably already done this but, a lot of people who run around here tend to have favorite routes they run. There's a good chance he was running a route that he has already done several times on Strava.

It was stated earlier in the thread that he normally runs in a cooler area, and this trip was a bit out-of-the-ordinary.