JBaller33 wrote:
41 of the 48 runners for the 800 meters at the Olympics are now known. The only outstanding entries are the 3 from Team Poland, 3 from Team GB, and 1 based on world ranking. Right now, that looks like potentially Mariano Garcia from Spain, Tshepo Tshte from South Africa, or Marc Reuther from Germany. Let's assume Team GB is Elliot Giles, Jamie Webb, and Guy Learmonth and Poland is Adam Kszczot, Mateusz Borkowski, and Patryk Dobek. Here's how I rank the most likely winners:
1. Clayton Murphy (USA) - Bronze medalist in Rio, world leading time, just won US trials.
2. Nijel Amos (Botswana) - An all time great, faster than anybody else on his best day.
3. Ferguson Rotich (Kenya) - As good a bet for a medal as anyone.
4. Amel Tuka (Bosnia) - Consistent 1:43 high man, but will others go faster?
5. Bryce Hoppel (USA) - If healthy, is a big threat and great tactically.
6. Wesley Vazquez (Puerto Rico) - Will push the pace, and capable of sub-1:44.
7. Marco Arop (Canada) - Worlds finalist in 2019, sub-1:44 man.
8. Elliott Giles (GB) - Big time talent, can he improve enough at Olympics?
9. Emmanuel Korir (Kenya) - Capable of great but really inconsistent.
10. Patryk Dobrek (Poland) - Another big time talent with inexperience.
11. Isaiah Jewett (USA) - Just coming onto the scene, but just went under 1:44 to make US team.
12. Ayanleh Souleiman (Djibouti) - Has gone under 1:44, but I don't see an 800 result since 2019.
13. Brandon McBride (Canada) - Has won Diamond League meets.
14. Adam Kszczot (Poland) - Great tactically, but best days are behind him.
15. Michael Saruni (Kenya) - Not sure he can go under 1:44.
16. Pierre-Ambrose Bosse (France) - Knows how to make finals, but another who's best days might be over.
17. Jamie Webb (GB) - Has ran under 1:45.
18. Mateusz Borkowski (Poland) - Has run under 1:45.
19. Adrian Ben (Spain) - Consistent, but not a threat to make the final.
20. Andreas Kramer (Sweden) - Has never gone under 1:45.
A couple other notes:
-Looks like Mahkloufi is entered in the 1,500 only. Algeria has entered Djamel Sejati as their only entrant, and Mahkloufi doesn't have the standard or world ranking.
-Did Australia really chose Peter Bol and Jeff Riseley over Charlie Hunter?
-The two Ethiopian guys are complete unknowns, but it doesn't look they've gone under 1:46.