Why is everyone pushing Athing Mu to run the 800? Run the 400 and 4×400!!!

She could easily come away with nothing from the Olympics so in a sense I agree the individual 400m has the least downside plus I'd really like to see her head to head against Mboma and Masilingi.

In the relay she has to hope no-one drops the baton or otherwise screws up the change.

In the 800 she might win but could go out in the semis, or get boxed in (even deliberately by some nations) or tripped from behind or elbowed. Her lack of quality race experience is scary. The way people keep hyping her medal chances up based on her times in meaningless student races reminds me of Coe in Moscow. Anyone (even Ovett in that race early on) can mess up their position badly.

Jo72 wrote:

longjack wrote:

Mu needs to run a competitive 800.

Yes. I'd even say she should have been in more competitive 800m races if she wants to do the event in Tokyo. I have not checked the stats myself but I've read that the 800m has by far the highest number of favorites missing the final (or if in the final, the medals) than any other t&f event. Just take the men's 800m 2017 (hardly anyone expected Bosse to win this) or the women's 2019 where Wilson had one of her few subpar races at the worst possible moment...

It would be really interesting to analyse the data. We saw it at the NCAAs of course with Aaliyah Miller coming 4th and going out.

The OP makes excellent points. Mu's prospects seem to me to be slightly stronger in the 400 right now than in the 800, particularly if Shaunae Miller-Uibo isn't running the 400. I agree that being able to run in one's own lane greatly reduces the likelihood of a "left-tail" event such as falling. As the OP put it "if your equally good 400/800 run the 400" (sic).

Moreover, if Mu runs the 400, the schedule will allow her to also compete in both the mixed 4x400 and women's 4x400:

Friday July 30:

Mixed 4 x 400m Relay Round 1

Saturday July 31:

Mixed 4 x 400m Relay Final

Tuesday August 3:

Women's 400m Round 1

Wednesday August 4:

Women's 400m Semifinals

Thursday August 5:

Women's 4 x 400m Relay Round 1

Friday August 6:

Women's 400m Final

Saturday August 7:

Women's 4 x 400m Relay Final

This is a demanding schedule but is well within the wheelhouse of a 400/800 runner like Mu.

By contrast, if Mu runs the 800, she will be unable to compete in the mixed 4x400 finals. The mixed 4x400 finals are immediately after the women's 800 semifinals on Saturday July 31.

I think it is fairly clear without checking stats that in sprint and field events favorites rarely miss finals, despite the danger of a false start (which of course was not such a danger historically, when one could have one foul). Likewise the longer distances have usually only one preliminary round, so making the final is not too hard.

This leaves 800m and 1500m which can be messed up easily for many reasons because small tactical mistakes or falls very often mean that one is out and the 800m has fewer spots for finalists and is obviously less forgiving because faster.

Together with the anecdotal evidence, Coe is of course another great example, this makes it quite plausible that the 800m final is the hardest to reach for the favorites. Winning/medalling is another question but several of the arguments also apply, basically, that there is not enough time to make up for a mistake. (Neither is in the even shorter distances but there is also less occasion for mistakes)

Avoiding competition is not the stuff the champions are made of.

Athing Mu got a strong mind and confidence in her abilities. She will have much more fun in the 800m, considering that she is 5s faster over 400m than the next fastest 800m runner.

She will be jogging through the rounds in 2:00.

she might run the 400's at world juniors,and 800's at the olympics.Athing going head to head with the two young namibians would be a showstopper of a race at world juniors.

Running three straight 800m on three consecutive days and mixing in a few 400 m is much tougher than running just the 400

Especially when almost all the other 800-meter Runners aren't going to be doubling. And you're only 19 oh, it's your first Olympics, and you have a history of tiring in big races.

Maybe she only runs in the final of the relay. That would be a help instead of having to run in both. It's probably three 800 over 4 days. Still though that's tougher than the 400. I don't think it has to do with wanting competition because there's going to be more competition in the 400. She probably just thinks she's better at the 800.

Probably has a little bit more of a chance for a medal in the 800, but also more of a chance for a bad result. You can argue either way

MidFootStriker wrote:

Running three straight 800m on three consecutive days and mixing in a few 400 m is much tougher than running just the 400

Especially when almost all the other 800-meter Runners aren't going to be doubling. And you're only 19 oh, it's your first Olympics, and you have a history of tiring in big races.

You guys are making this more complicated than it is

The most likely to happen is that she runs her 3 rounds of 800s and ONE round (semi or final) of the women's 4x4. That's more than manageable.

Her collegiate/world class coaching and conditioning will render this so called history you speak of Irrelevant. Should be a very good and memorable Olympics for her.

She's made the right choice

You are correct. I coached a 400 runner who won Olympic Gold by running the 4x4 prelim only.

ContextisKing wrote:

Maybe she only runs in the final of the relay. That would be a help instead of having to run in both. It's probably three 800 over 4 days. Still though that's tougher than the 400. I don't think it has to do with wanting competition because there's going to be more competition in the 400. She probably just thinks she's better at the 800.

It's THREE 800s over FIVE DAYS and a round of the 4x4 two fours days after the 800m final.

Competing with Faith Kipyegon, Jemma Reekie, Getachew, Wilson, Rogers, and Alemu is arguably a tougher path to a medal than having to compete with the Namibians (they interestingly haven't competed over 400m in quite a while), and possibly (unlikely) Naser. She obviously knows she equally good at both. but wants the challenge of her main event

Good for her

Bully Beef wrote:

ContextisKing wrote:

Maybe she only runs in the final of the relay. That would be a help instead of having to run in both. It's probably three 800 over 4 days. Still though that's tougher than the 400. I don't think it has to do with wanting competition because there's going to be more competition in the 400. She probably just thinks she's better at the 800.

It's THREE 800s over FIVE DAYS and a round of the 4x4 TWO to FOUR days after the 800m final.

corrected

There's no "if." She's not entered in the 400.

The rounds play to her advantage, since no one in the field can run 2:00 more effortlessly.

I agree with many of the other posters who say that the 400M is the less risky choice. She hasn't even been pushed in a 400m yet, and can probably go sub 49 right now.

She has more experience in the 800m, but there's so much more in that event that can go wrong. Either way, it seems that she has already made her choice to run the 800m.

Why is Diggs being overshadowed by Mu? Diggs and Mu grew up in relative proximity to each other, all but in two different states separated by the Delaware River. Diggs was also somewhat overshadowed by her Class of 2020 sister Pennsylvania T&F stars Starliper, Parks, and Horn. Diggs and Horn were in the 2021 NCAA Championships as true 1st years (i.e. freshman), Starliper and Parks were not.

I agree that for most runners the 800 is the more tactical, random, scary event. But for a 1:57 runner with 48-point speed, the rounds are just sit-and-kick-and-advance tempo runs.

I just don't see a world where a the fastest 800 runner with the fastest 200/400 speed doesn't easily qualify. It's a hard event but she's so far and away the most talented runner in the field, she could run in lane 3 for most of it and still advance.

(Also, I should admit that part of my thinking is based on the fact that I don't trust the fitness of any of the other top 800 US women right now.)

CrispyChicken wrote:

Why is Diggs being overshadowed by Mu? .

Why do you expect Diggs to be in the convo?

50.74 is good for the freshman, but it's not shaking anything up. She should stay in school and put her focus on the 2022 World Champs.

She's 2nd fastest in the world right now in the 800 and she only ran it ONCE! 1:57.7... That was in April. Then in May she was running the 400, and wasn't able to break 50 right away. She fine tuned the 400 and eventually because the 4th fastest the world for the 400. And there are 3 other women less than a half second behind her in the 400. So she has to improve to win a medal in an event she has run several times this year and might not get too much faster.

In the 800, she ran it once and is 2nd in the world, She could run a half second slower and still be 3rd in the world. But it's likely she can actually improve her time since she only ran it once and blew everyone out of the water. It was a time trial. She is obviously better at the 800, it's reasonable to think we'll see a 1:56 or even 1:55 from her.

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Avoiding competition is not the stuff the champions are made of.

Athing Mu got a strong mind and confidence in her abilities. She will have much more fun in the 800m, considering that she is 5s faster over 400m than the next fastest 800m runner.

She will be jogging through the rounds in 2:00.

Yes it's crazy to think. She's a 49 second open 400 runner, who is conditioned to be better at the 800. I'm a guy, but I could only run a 52 400 at best, but I could run 1:57-1:59 any day of the week, 1:55 on the right day. Athing will have no problem running 2:00 to keep advancing to the next round and then have one hard effort in the championship race where we'll see a 1:56 or better from her.