NCAA Women's 5000m pick?

Heymach is a dark horse

I agree it isn't an easy event but the winner will come from one of the first 3 you listed.

On the DL wrote:

Who the heck do I pick for the prediction contest?

favorites now all have question marks

Whittni Orton - wasn't able to make 1500 final. bad sign for the 5 or will she be out for redemption?

Mercy Chelangat - Lost the 10,000, still got 2nd but didn't beat anyone hugely noteworthy. Could be toast.

Elly Henes - NC State Women seem to have peaked too early in season

Ella Donaghu - Looked pretty good in the 1500 round but will be doubling back from that final

Thinking of throwing a dart at either Wasserman from Notre Dame or the "other" choice that will at least cover the bottom 16 seeds

Kelsey Chmiel of NC State certainly did not peak too early - huge PB in 10,000 last night to make AA. I still think Orton is the favorite, but Henes should challenge her.

FastTuohy wrote:

On the DL wrote:

Who the heck do I pick for the prediction contest?

favorites now all have question marks

Whittni Orton - wasn't able to make 1500 final. bad sign for the 5 or will she be out for redemption?

Mercy Chelangat - Lost the 10,000, still got 2nd but didn't beat anyone hugely noteworthy. Could be toast.

Elly Henes - NC State Women seem to have peaked too early in season

Ella Donaghu - Looked pretty good in the 1500 round but will be doubling back from that final

Thinking of throwing a dart at either Wasserman from Notre Dame or the "other" choice that will at least cover the bottom 16 seeds

Kelsey Chmiel of NC State certainly did not peak too early - huge PB in 10,000 last night to make AA. I still think Orton is the favorite, but Henes should challenge her.

We shall see. I had a feeling you might swoop in to defend the NC Women :)

popeye doyle wrote:

Heymach is a dark horse

Same conundrum of not making the 1500 final as Orton but I still might pick her 2nd or 3rd. Fits the bill of the "almost national champs" the Stanford distance women have had in recent years (Cranny, Aragon, Frazier)

I was going to say. 1st Team All-American.

NC State has twice the talent of any other team in the NCAA. If the coach was better, they should have crushed everyone in XC and should have Tuohy as AA in track. Starting to think she should have chosen more wisely.

Wikipedia lets you toggle through the past few years of results pretty easily.

Looks like the trend is for the "biggest name at the start" to win to the race (Sisson, Dom Scott, Schweitzer, Dani Jones) but then a rando often gets 2nd (Aurora Dybedokken in 2016, Alsu Bogdanova in 2017, Allie Buchalski in 2018 -not a big name at the time).

Maybe it helps to have a Central / Eastern European last name lol

I am also feeling like Wasserman from ND will have a day. I mean I have seen her race and she is gritty. Nicole fegans also the ACC 10k champ but she failed to qualify in the 10k to nationals maybe an early peaking season. Clare Obrien had herself a day in the 10k too, looking solid all season. I think Elly Henes will perform she is a talent.

Mercy Chelengat of Alabama has some of the best longer LONGER distance speed that I have seen. Back in Arkansas at the John McDonald Invitational she won the 5k and in the last mile -- get this! -- ran 4:39 in the last mile of that 5k, and her splits were 71, 69, 69, and 68. Her coaches have told me she just has got this HUGE engine. And she just kind of runs really just unassuming, not thinking about everything, and then she just turns that speed on, and it is a whole OTHER gear.

10k watcher wrote:

Mercy Chelengat of Alabama has some of the best longer LONGER distance speed that I have seen. Back in Arkansas at the John McDonald Invitational she won the 5k and in the last mile -- get this! -- ran 4:39 in the last mile of that 5k, and her splits were 71, 69, 69, and 68. Her coaches have told me she just has got this HUGE engine. And she just kind of runs really just unassuming, not thinking about everything, and then she just turns that speed on, and it is a whole OTHER gear.

That's cuz she has that speed stamina noone else has.

Every single one of these women are on their own race plan, and they have to say to themselves, "How am I feeling, PHYSICALLY?" And then there's a psychological part of that, it's how you MENTALLY feel about how you're PHYSICALLY feeling, and this will determine who makes moves.

Interesting thing about how she got that sick speed:

The repeat 600s come in, where you're going to do 5 to 8 of them, and in that first 400 you might run mile pace and in that last 200 you're going to cut it down. It's workouts like that, or it's workouts like 4x1000 or 4x1200 with 90 seconds in between so you get into that "my legs are BURNING, my heart is GOING" and you're at that threshold.

Also those repeat 1600 out in lane 3, really try to turn over and get that speed going so you can feel in in the race.

10k watcher wrote:

Mercy Chelengat of Alabama has some of the best longer LONGER distance speed that I have seen. Back in Arkansas at the John McDonald Invitational she won the 5k and in the last mile -- get this! -- ran 4:39 in the last mile of that 5k, and her splits were 71, 69, 69, and 68. Her coaches have told me she just has got this HUGE engine. And she just kind of runs really just unassuming, not thinking about everything, and then she just turns that speed on, and it is a whole OTHER gear.

^^^True

10k watcher wrote:

Also those repeat 1600 out in lane 3, really try to turn over and get that speed going so you can feel in in the race.

Are you sure it wasn't repeat 600s with the first 400 at mile pace and then cutting down?

10k watcher wrote:

Mercy Chelengat of Alabama has some of the best longer LONGER distance speed that I have seen. Back in Arkansas at the John McDonald Invitational she won the 5k and in the last mile -- get this! -- ran 4:39 in the last mile of that 5k, and her splits were 71, 69, 69, and 68. Her coaches have told me she just has got this HUGE engine. And she just kind of runs really just unassuming, not thinking about everything, and then she just turns that speed on, and it is a whole OTHER gear.

Hi Jill! Didn't know you are a fan of LRC.

Its all about the cut downs

Faster is better wrote:

NC State has twice the talent of any other team in the NCAA. If the coach was better, they should have crushed everyone in XC and should have Tuohy as AA in track. Starting to think she should have chosen more wisely.

This is a ridiculous statement! Henes is one of the most underrated coaches in the NCAA. And what she has done with Elly Henes has been amazing. Elly was not a high school star at all and now look at her...... one of the best in the NCAA and will be running the 10k at all he trials in 2 weeks.

I’m definitely picking Henes tomorrow in the 5k and not just because I’m a fan. For the following reasons:

1. Out of all the favorites she is fresh and focused

2. She has not been training much with the team this spring but in Flagstaff AZ in altitude

3. Ran the 1500m a lot this spring to work on her speed for this very race tomorrow

4. Senior and last race in the Wolfpack uniform....wants to end her storied NC State career on the best possible note possible

5. Wants to end her college career doing what her mom did at NC State...... 5000m NCAA outdoor Champion!!!!!

Lots of motivation, planning, and training for this very moment. It will be tough but it could very well happen. Go Elly 🤘