Official Florence DL Live Discussion Thread - W1500 and M5000 Look UNREAL!! (2-4 pm ET)

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I think the way Jakob is running, it's hard to picture him not picking up silver in the 1500.

Good question is what's better:

A) Go for safe silver in 1500m

B) Go for gold or nothing in 5000m

Wise Old Man wrote:

Do we know what Hassan will do? Maybe the 1500/10K is best for her? She looks like she could triple, maybe quadruple the way she’s going. Ok, no gold, but snag a medal in the 800 just for laughs. Does she really need to rest? Ok, I’ll go back to my bronze medal delusion for the women’s 1500. Our best runner did run 3:57 at a CIA black ops site, so we have been led to believe.

She is on record saying she is planning to do the 5/10K double. With Gidey and Tsegay amongst many other really good runners she will have her hands full in each.

I see no reason why Purrier/Houlihan don't have a legit shot at bronze/silver in the 1500 after today. Yes I expect Faith for Gold, but maybe the 800m rounds also tire her. Muir had every opportunity to PR today and didn't even in a perfect drag race scenario for her. Even that alone feels like a positive given how well she's been running. It helps when the two best women at the event are NOT running it.

high low emptu wrote:

however do note that all three brothers are asthmatics and use meds just before races. So one cannot simply say that it is entirely clean result. I and anyone else can only hope that asthma meds is the iceberg but not the tip of it.

Ofc its a clean result when everything is done in the open, by the rules. An iceberg hides most of its ice. Asthmatics is common by top athletes. 1/3 of Team Sky had it and 70% of top British swimmers. Its nothing unusual or shady what so ever. Team Ingebrigtsen has its own TV-team that almost follows every step during the year and shows no signs of trying to hide anything at all.

boing bboing bbboing wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

What these results show is that us Americans can end our delusion that we have any man or woman with a shot to medal in Tokyo in the 1500-10K. Not Houlihan, not Purrier, not Centro, not Engels, not Fisher. Time to wake up. Also, please nobody mention Hobbs Kessler and Jakob in the same sentence for the foreseeable future.

Hobbs Kessler might be more talented than Jakob, considering his achievements at the same "training age".

Please stop, I am begging you. Please.....

I don't think there is any evidence that Kiplimo has got a 'monster kick' at that level

think first wrote:

Good question is what's better:

A) Go for safe silver in 1500m

B) Go for gold or nothing in 5000m

I'd say A. It's a 1500m final, you never know. Even if Tim leads it out (or gets pacing help from a teammate) and targets a 3:28-9 race, why can't Jakob be right there? Tim is great at saving for the homestretch and handling a blazing fast pace. But Jakob seems to be making improvements on the former. I'd still favor Tim to win, but he will likely have to be the hunted and not the hunter. In the 5,000, I think Wale and Kiplimo might in reality be some 5+ seconds faster than Jakob with a big strength advantage. There's more depth below them as well. So go with the 1500 in my view.

No, they don't use asthma medication. Where are you getting this from? Can you provide some sources please?

LynxRoo wrote:

runderun wrote:

I think it's honestly 50/50 between Jakob and Kiplimo over 5k. Kiplimo has a monster kick as he's shown in races over 3k, 5k, and HM. What's becoming obvious now is that if anyone wants any chance of a medal of any colour, you're going to need to be able to hold a sub-13 pace for 4200m and then be ready to unleash the kind of kick a miler would be proud of. The game has changed so much from 2016 and even 2019. Cheptegei doesn't seem to have that kick so his only hope is going to be to grind to a sub-12:45 which I don't think he can do without wavelight

I don't think there is any evidence that Kiplimo has got a 'monster kick' at that level

What about Hocker’s kick?🤣

Here's one: https://www.tv2.no/a/9553669/

This is Jim Kiler wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

What these results show is that us Americans can end our delusion that we have any man or woman with a shot to medal in Tokyo in the 1500-10K. Not Houlihan, not Purrier, not Centro, not Engels, not Fisher. Time to wake up. Also, please nobody mention Hobbs Kessler and Jakob in the same sentence for the foreseeable future.

This ^

You two are lame naysayers, give it a rest. The Olympics has a rich history of the underdog medaling against the odds. I'm not going to bet on any Americans as a lock for a medal, but history tells your lameass hot take otherwise:

Tell that to Shalane.

Tell that to Manzano.

Tell that to Centro.

Tell that to Chelimo.

Tell that to Murphy.

nnnnnnn wrote:

Here's one:

https://www.tv2.no/a/9553669/

Thanks for the source. I wasnt aware of that.

I guess Letsrun can sleep tight still, knowing that Jakob ran that time because of the asthma medication and that Cole Hocker could still smoke him in a hypthetical race.

GrapeSon wrote:

nnnnnnn wrote:

Here's one:

https://www.tv2.no/a/9553669/

Thanks for the source. I wasnt aware of that.

I guess Letsrun can sleep tight still, knowing that Jakob ran that time because of the asthma medication and that Cole Hocker could still smoke him in a hypthetical race.

its legal.

no problem.

nice clean air passages.

what else?

LynxRoo wrote:

runderun wrote:

I think it's honestly 50/50 between Jakob and Kiplimo over 5k. Kiplimo has a monster kick as he's shown in races over 3k, 5k, and HM. What's becoming obvious now is that if anyone wants any chance of a medal of any colour, you're going to need to be able to hold a sub-13 pace for 4200m and then be ready to unleash the kind of kick a miler would be proud of. The game has changed so much from 2016 and even 2019. Cheptegei doesn't seem to have that kick so his only hope is going to be to grind to a sub-12:45 which I don't think he can do without wavelight

I don't think there is any evidence that Kiplimo has got a 'monster kick' at that level

Watch this. Jacob > Jakob.

Westlake Tavern Pizza wrote:

This is Jim Kiler wrote:

This ^

You two are lame naysayers, give it a rest. The Olympics has a rich history of the underdog medaling against the odds. I'm not going to bet on any Americans as a lock for a medal, but history tells your lameass hot take otherwise:

Tell that to Shalane.

Tell that to Manzano.

Tell that to Centro.

Tell that to Chelimo.

Tell that to Murphy.

Don't forget Rupp. Twice.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

think first wrote:

Good question is what's better:

A) Go for safe silver in 1500m

B) Go for gold or nothing in 5000m

I'd say A. It's a 1500m final, you never know. Even if Tim leads it out (or gets pacing help from a teammate) and targets a 3:28-9 race, why can't Jakob be right there? Tim is great at saving for the homestretch and handling a blazing fast pace. But Jakob seems to be making improvements on the former. I'd still favor Tim to win, but he will likely have to be the hunted and not the hunter. In the 5,000, I think Wale and Kiplimo might in reality be some 5+ seconds faster than Jakob with a big strength advantage. There's more depth below them as well. So go with the 1500 in my view.

You're right, people today still remember Cram's silver in Los Angeles more than Aouita's 5000m gold. If Aouita had been a man, he could have ran the 1500 and likely would have finished between Cram and Coe.

Jakob said on social media yesterday that he prefers the 1500. Aouita preferred the 1500 too but he wasn't a man like Jakob is.

Jakob might finish second behind Tim, although Tim is having sleepless nights now and will probably skip any head to head with Jakob until Tokyo to plant potatoes instead. Even if Tim does win, the statistical liklihood is he'll get popped in the next few years. At Jakob's age and with the delay to Tokyo, he has a series shot at being the only 3 time Olympic 1500m champion. He'll still only be 31 in 2032.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

think first wrote:

Good question is what's better:

A) Go for safe silver in 1500m

B) Go for gold or nothing in 5000m

I'd say A. It's a 1500m final, you never know. Even if Tim leads it out (or gets pacing help from a teammate) and targets a 3:28-9 race, why can't Jakob be right there? Tim is great at saving for the homestretch and handling a blazing fast pace. But Jakob seems to be making improvements on the former. I'd still favor Tim to win, but he will likely have to be the hunted and not the hunter. In the 5,000, I think Wale and Kiplimo might in reality be some 5+ seconds faster than Jakob with a big strength advantage. There's more depth below them as well. So go with the 1500 in my view.

I'll probably look an idiot after Tokyo for saying this, but why are people so confident about Wale? He's a jumped up steepler with one great indoor 3k and a solid 5k to his name. I've seen nothing to suggest he has greater strength than Jakob.

The 5k was also great, but the 7:24 3k was just bonkers. For me he’s cemented himself as one of the top top ethiopians.

Mr T........ wrote:

Jakob might finish second behind Tim

Jakob has only raced Tim during Jakob's teen years. Tim's PR before turning 20 was 3:34.86.

We do not know Jakob's abilities in the 5k nor the 1500m this year other than that we can expect it to be top notch.

Be warned:

In the Olympic final everything change!

Element of surprise will never discarded.

Runner generally double their supreme efforts.

You can ask El G. and what happened to him in the finals 2000/2004.

Morcelli paid a price too in 1992.

If the pace if medium to slow, strategist and kickers (Muktar Edris is a good example) are the beneficiaries.