Fourth woman may be Lonah Salpeter of Israel. So quick in Tokyo last year, winning in 2.17.45. Took 2.02 off the CR, finishing ahead of two of Ethiopia's representatives here.
Next could be Roza Dereje, still only 24yo. Third in London in 2019 then ran PB later that year: 2.18.30 in winning Valencia.
You are completely overlooking the hometown favorite, Mao Ichiyama of Japan. She cruised to easy victory at the Osaka Marathon in January. Her training is the best its ever been. And she will be running at home. Ichiyama will definitely finish in the top 4, and she could possibly get a medal in Sapporo!
You could be right but I have her barely in the top ten, just behind Rose Chelimo who has a magnificent pedigree at big championships.
Mao, Rose, and the Namibian in the top ten, who else can compete with them?
None of these for seventh for me: Tigist Girma instead. Twice inside 2.20, in Valencia and Amsterdam.