Hot Take/Rumor: Hobbs Kessler Turning Pro (very soon)

Interesting rumor...Nike already has Shannon Osika training in Ann Arbor, and she recently ran a 4:00 1500.

So many morans in here....all these people acting like he “needs” college....did the norway boy need college? Did bolt need college? Did k james need college? Those guys are all pro runners but in the US we all would have been drooling to see what 4 yr waste of time they would have gone to.

Next is the issue with you nimwits, why is it you think 3:34 is his ceiling? First time he steps up with faster guys and creme rises to the top. I can see him hitting 3:31-32 this summer without batting an eye.....you still think running ncaa is still worth it? So many morans on here. Forget about the money side think about how he needs to race fast kenyans and that norway boy who has been “pro” since he started training with his brothers.

This is the biggest issues with US track, complain we arent as good as east africans but then when one comes around you all want him to waste 4 yrs of amateur style at some pointless college. How many 18yr old kenyans would have wasted their time with US college running if they listened to you? KB was what 13:20 or so at 17 on his first euro season, then quickly running with the best he had WRs. So yeah lets keep hobbs in the small pond....morans

Flagpole and Rojo are right on this.

In the what would I do approach?

I would stay with Ron,(but I always would have done that, plus he is hysterical to be around!) forget about an XC/5K/10K rich program and take a 10 year deal at more than 1.5 x Hunters'. And not for 1$ less, lol. He is much better than Hunter, look at video, not anything else and forget about the times run even, you have to look at a running style and form, and his is the best seen in a long time, certainly smoother than Webb's even.

That's what I would recommend( But nobody is asking me, and quite frankly I would say if there was some of this going on, it escalated after Saturday night).

While people say Track Money is peanuts? Its a lot better guaranteed money until you are 28 than most anything else today. I think there might be something to be gained by going to College for one year, maybe? but but not much for this kid. Step in one gopher hole on an XC course and your paydays already get limited.Even if you look at Hocker, ( Who has run faster, I mean but come on, look at Hocker and look at Kessler, forget about times run, and who would you sign?Teare DeGusse etc, Look at this kids form and style and then be objective?

Forget 8K and 10K Cross which is NAU's focus, no disrepect to Smith, but Ron has now coached 5 3:35 or better guys. They have very few if any 3:37 types at NAU And he would have to be trained entirely differently than most of the herd coming from 50 miles a week, with real effectiveness.

I would presume shoe companies have now already called? I would? In fact probably Saturday night or Sunday morning. And ones that do not would be sorry, if they are interested in Middle distance guys?

Being a medal contender should NOT be a consideration here AT ALL. The fact is he's faster at 1500 meters than any college runner ever. Runners don't have too many opportunities to make a lot of money, and their timeline is short. If his goal is to make a living as a runner, then that goal is met now.

Lots of successful US distance runners were not medal contenders (Ritz, Hall to name a couple). So, seriously, you are suggesting a person needs to be one of the top 3 runners in the world to consider turning pro early? That's a crazy stance.

I agree. But I would clarify one thing. You qualified it with if making a living from running as the goal. Every American should have the goal of earning a living. He can do that now while pursuing college and then whatever other type of job that he wants. This is a slam dunk. Whether he wants to earn a living from running or not, if he intends to continue running for the next 4 years, he has to go pro. The money is too good. This is equivalent to your employer offering to subdtantislly increase your salary for the next 5 years to do the same job but you have to agree to stay with them for that period of time. Oh, and you will get the money even if you become unable to work.

Does anyone know if Sully and Warhurst still have a good relationship? I seem to remember hearing of a falling out, but hope that isn’t the case.

No amount of convincing will change my mind here- Hobbs should sign a big I’m contract that includes college (even if only part time) and he should join UM as some sort of volunteer coach, which will give him access to the team and the facilities. He can do 70% of his runs with them (I’d even go as far as to make coming to practice a mandatory thing on most days) to keep structure and of course he should do his workouts with Ron.

Ideally, the VNTC picks up 2-3 more guys, even if they’re 3:41/13:45 types and maybe a marathon guy or two. Those athletes are helpful to have as part of the group in addition to the big3 of Ferlic, Hobbs and Willis (presuming he continues training).

TLDR: build out the VNTC ever so slightly around Hobbs and have him taking classes at UM while and easy/morning runs and lifting sessions with the UM team.

On Sully Warhurst.....Never possibly a falling out

king999 wrote:

On Sully Warhurst.....Never possibly a falling out

Hard to understand what you’re saying here. Need actual sentence structure to properly interpret.

bartholomew_maxwell wrote:

who care he not is ever gonna be as fast as the africans. just another overhype American "phenom"....we knowed how this turn out.

Hopefully he can take an online class that gives him English skills greater than yours.

Actually he can probably test out

Who would be a good fit to sponsor that group? Tracksmith has their money in other places. Would a singular brand be willing to pay enough for all the group's athletes? I could see them staying away from group shoe contracts and rather a fitness watch/food/accesory deal.

I can see this side of the argument as well. My thinking is that the money is almost certainly there in 2 yrs. HK could enjoy 2 yrs of competing in college (with teammates) and complete half of his degree. One could argue that he will not be as marketable in 2 yrs, but I don't believe this will be the case.

Almost positive Webb signed for 1/3rd or less what was being thrown around right after Prefontaine a year earlier.

So not sure how you can think he wouldn’t be less marketable after two years of college. Heck, if he went to school and ran 3:33 but finished 4th at ncaas (totally possible with all the talent that’s there now), would he still be worth millions? Possibly not.

Go now when he’s boy wonder. College adds no value to his pro earnings potential unless he wins multiple titles his freshman year and even then the argument could be made that it’s a net neutral contract.

Basically, not taking the money now is almost entirely downside.

from legitimate source; largest offer so far is from New Balance @ 750k over 4 years guaranteed with lucrative bonus structure + in state tuition at Ann Arbor (U of M)

deal allows for complete freedom in coaching and training group as well as a potential personal shoe/apparel line which is where the real money would come from, no specifics yet on percentage split between NB and Kessler on the personal line

185-200K per year sounds right, but surprised it would be so short.

I think a good agent can get more years with that, plus the big bonuses to win titles, hit times, place in top races, etc.

Not sure what to think on the apparel line. Would that be a big thing in our world? Has anything like that been done? Need someone to paint a picture for me here.

Well, here is good confirmation. Ron gets a call from Phil Knight immediately after the race and next day they are in meetings at NIKE HQ. Every day this kid is in HOKA and Tracksmith, NIKE is not capitalizing on the Dragonfly impact -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8_HUXzpq3I&t=5s

they're trying to sell it to him as having a "Michael Jordan effect in the running world"

his own name branded logo line of spikes, training/racing kits, etc. made under New Balance.

Another big selling point is that the NB deal is relatively short (1 Olympic cycle) which opens up room for renegotiation for more $ if he really takes off and will still be in his prime

That premise is absolutely unfounded and not true.

Besides the kennedys (which I and pretty much everyone else wore), has there ever been a custom distance spike? Could be cool as hell, but clearly the MJ effect is a biiiiiiiit of a stretch.

I have a hard time not seeing Nike offering up the most money. Considering how much they paid Wheating, this seems like a massive no brainer.

You should check your sources, none of that is true.