Economist Peter Schiff on Tucker Carlson Show predicts 20% inflation this year

How does the math square? Why would I need to get a 25% return to avoid losing real wealth if inflation is 20%? What am I missing?

Jamin - your guy has a terrible track record. That he's on Tucker shows it. Find a more credible voice to support your doom and gloom.

jamin wrote:

If your investment portfolio isn't returning 25% this year, then you've lost real wealth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c8M5C6ycUs&ab_channel=PeterSchiff

We will see what happens, that's the great part about predictions.

Gov wouldnt have had to print any money if employers paid their workers more and didn't use their short term excessive profits to buy stock, bribe politicians, and inflate their own stock value to max out CEO compensation, then beg for gov handouts the millisecond it got hard.

The problems with the economy is the result of 1. capitalism and 2. capitalism's corruption of a large government. The answer is not only less gov control, but also less owner control. That is; collective bargaining by workers (90% of people and 99% of the middle class) is necessary for a stable economy.

Why would any sane person listen to Tucker, the man is an idiot of the first degree and a danger to others

Schiff and Tucker?

Now that's a combo.

its only 5k wrote:

Why would any sane person listen to Tucker, the man is an idiot of the first degree and a danger to others

Translation - I'm a helpless sheep that believes everything on CNN and anyone with even a slightly differing view is the enemy.

Sad way to live life bro ...

I predict his prediction is wrong.

kingojamin2600 wrote:

Jamin - your guy has a terrible track record. That he's on Tucker shows it. Find a more credible voice to support your doom and gloom.

Yeah watch this video,

What a track record. Obviously, if you listen to him and look at the different data points referencing he is not someone going out there and getting lucky. He clearly understands economics and has thoroughly evaluated the situation in order to understand the structural issues. Matt Taibbi won a Pulitzer for basically documenting how the financial collapse went down when all you had to do was listen to Schiff in the years leading up to it and it was basically a road map for Taibbi's books. (no way is that meant to be a shot a Taibbi, I am a fan and think he is a great reporter, more to point out how well Schiff understood a very complex situation and was a major contrarian to mainstream thought at the time) They did not invite him back again, and no longer invite him on Bloomberg and CNBC. Because it turns out when you are bear and you end up being right it is really bad for the business of everyone else.

He has been a little ahead of the party on the collapse of the dollar. It has not happened as fast as he thought but there are a lot of geo-political factors that go into that. But it definitely looks like he's going to like he is going to be right whether it happens in 1 year or 10 the structural issues for our currency right now are very severe and this current administration irresponsibility makes the past 3 look like deficit hawks. People would be extremely foolish to ignore the small group of people who were out ahead of the housing crisis and have been out ahead of what's coming.

He's probably inflating the level of inflation, but inflation is a very real threat with Bidenomics underway. Printing a bunch of money to pay people to stay home creates inflation by increasing the cost of imports. Legislating higher wages, benefits, etc. for labor creates inflation and unemployment, artificially increasing the cost of fossil fuels like gasoline by restricting drilling and cancelling pipelines creates inflation on energy and all goods, etc. The cost of everything other than housing will likely go up. Housing will likely crash as interest rates rise to keep up with inflation.

1) Overnight Fed Funds Rate, target 0.25%

2) 30 year U.S. Bond yield, less than 2.35%

There are Libertarians & Republicans who do not want Biden/Pelosi/Schumer 2 trillion dollar infrastructure, so Libertarians & Republicans are starting significant inflation rumors. When are bond yields going to reflect theories of Libertarians & Republicans?

Maybe not at 20% but inflation isn't bad. It tackles the national debt Tucker was complaining about a few weeks back. Obviously it erodes the purchasing power of his wealth so naturally he doesn't mention that as part of his analysis.

This fool has been "predicting" hyperinflation for over a decade.

He also predicted gold at $5000 per oz. He predicted a "99% stock market crash by April 29th, 2021"

Lesson 1.

Don't watch Tucker

Lesson 2

If you watch Tucker don't believe whatever he or his guests say.

... had more than 2 dozen ECON courses wrote:

1) Overnight Fed Funds Rate, target 0.25%

2) 30 year U.S. Bond yield, less than 2.35%

There are Libertarians & Republicans who do not want Biden/Pelosi/Schumer 2 trillion dollar infrastructure, so Libertarians & Republicans are starting significant inflation rumors. When are bond yields going to reflect theories of Libertarians & Republicans?

Referencing rates as if it shows inflation does not exist only shows how clueless you are in that you do not understand how central banks influence rates. The FED has been massively expanding its balance sheet in an effort to suppress rates because they understand the impact real rates would have on government debt and on the overleverage in corporate America.

Everyone sees the inflation, this is not some figment of Republican's imagination. If you work in any industry that is forced to buy raw mats you know how insanely those have gone up in the last 6 months. The increase in labor costs and shortages due to the increased unemployment are extremely well documented. US running $80 billion-plus trade deficits which is jus more dollars in foreign hands waiting to come back in. Even CPI which is totally cooked showed almost a 1% inflation in April alone. You pump a crapload of extra money into the economy while you people are less productive, as long as one of your 24 econ classes was econ 101 you should understand what that results in.

Printing money is a devaluation of all the money that already exists.

Beware of con artists

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/company-ex-trump-lawyer-raiding-nonprofit-for-personal-use/2509670/

Schiff makes his money by predicting economic doom and then peddling gold as a hedge. It's an old con game, but there is always a new supply of fools who are ready to have their money taken.

1) Try to explain how Central Banks have kept U.S. Treasury Bond yields low. You do know bonds trade on open market. If Central Banks were attempting to rig bonds, intelligent billionaires and large corporations would correct.

2) You may or may not know: When inflation was an issue in U.S. in mid-to late 1970's, Overnight Fed Funds Rate and U.S. Bond yields demonstrated inflation.

3) Libertarian & Republican clandestine inflation. I love it! Only Pete Schiff and right wingers on Letsrun know the truth. Btw, Pete Schiff is not an economist.

Justice wrote:

Schiff makes his money by predicting economic doom and then peddling gold as a hedge. It's an old con game, but there is always a new supply of fools who are ready to have their money taken.

Yes, he is pedaling what has been the basis for money for 1000's of years. What a con. Someone should tell the boys at Fort Knox they've been conned at should throw away the 8000 tons of gold owned by the US government. Too bad they don't listen to Saylor on Bitcoin instead.

The modern teaching of economics has really damaged people's understanding of what money is and why gold became money. It is still extremely relevant today and there is a reason many of the central banks around the world have been increasing their gold holdings significantly over the past 5 or 6 years. The current FIAT system is on its last legs and the smart players are planning so they at least do not get wiped out.

Long term interest rates reflect investor expectations of the future state of the economy. If investors expect economic weakness to continue for some time (and thus for inflation to remain muted), long term interest rates will be lower. The Fed is able to influence them, but economic research generally shows that it isn't to a significant extent. If you want a simple example of this, go back to around 2013 or 2014 when the Fed substantially tapered its bond purchases, and the usual suspects like Schiff came out saying long term yields would surge and the US would enter a debt spiral. The result was the total opposite, and people who made bets on a surge in yields lost a lot of money.

Also, how does increased unemployment lead to higher labor costs? If anything, it should restrain growth in labor costs.

I agree that printing money can devalue existing money, but that depends on circumstances. If the economy is in a liquidity trap, printing money has virtually no effect on inflation, and depend on how the central bank communicates its policy, no effect on expected inflation. In this case, there is no devaluation to speak of.