Not pacing for one person wrote:
My money's on one of the aussies, probably Tiernan. He's been on a tear lately, just set the Australian record in 27:22. Honestly I'm surprised he is even doing the race since he has the Olympic standard. Maybe he's pacing?
I was just about to say I wouldn’t be surprised if Tiernan was pacing for Mead, like you said he ran the standard already so makes sense if he didn’t race another 10k!
Plenty of people capable of the standard in that race, and I wouldn't even be picking Mead to win. He hasn't done much the past year.
People who I imagine will be committing to the OQ pace are Klecker, McDonald who have very good shots at it. Mead will probably commit to the pace since a 27:40 wouldn't get him anywhere. Flanagan and Lara will probably try to hang on, their new 5k PRs show they could be close to sub 27:30 if the stars align. Chelenga will try to hold on but hasn't shown that form yet. Clayton Young ran well at 15k US championships, but his track speed hasn't been anywhere close to OQ pace. Not sure if Mantz will be able to hold on, but I imagine he can be sub 28.
Mantz can probably go 27:30 to 27:40. Nico paced his teammate to a 27:47 so Mantz should be faster than that. If McDonald is healthy he should be under the standard as well as Klecker
I think Mantz is the most intriguing runner in the field.
His 13:24 5K would indicate he's nowhere near the level of most of these guys(putting him somewhere around 28:00), but he does seem to be stronger with longer races. I don't think he has the speed to go anywhere near the Olympic standard, but I think he'd be disappointed if he didn't get the trials standard. Maybe he can get Eyestones school record 27:41 set in 1985, but obviously there's a reason that's stuck for 36 years. That's moving for a college athlete.
Mantz ran a 3:37:96 1500m on April 30. He has some speed. He may surprise.