Why are India’s covid rates skyrocketing

Precious Roy wrote:

It is generally the same story whether it is India Brazil, Europe or the US. COVID 19 always is able to cause a surge in cases as long as there is an opportunity to infect. In India it was a familiar story. Containment had been successful and the government eased restrictions. There was evidence of case growth in March and the government did not react. A highly transmissible variant took over and caused a massive outbreak. There was almost no protection from vaccination as all the rich countries bought up the first available vaccine supplies and patent protections prevented India, which has a massive vaccine manufacturing industry, from making affordable generic vaccines. The US and EU blocked attempts to lift patent protections for vaccines. It may not have been in time to save India from the current outbreak, but there are still a lot of countries in Asia and Africa that have not had a big surge in cases that are sitting ducks for a highly transmissible variant.

Seyta wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

It is generally the same story whether it is India Brazil, Europe or the US. COVID 19 always is able to cause a surge in cases as long as there is an opportunity to infect. In India it was a familiar story. Containment had been successful and the government eased restrictions. There was evidence of case growth in March and the government did not react. A highly transmissible variant took over and caused a massive outbreak. There was almost no protection from vaccination as all the rich countries bought up the first available vaccine supplies and patent protections prevented India, which has a massive vaccine manufacturing industry, from making affordable generic vaccines. The US and EU blocked attempts to lift patent protections for vaccines. It may not have been in time to save India from the current outbreak, but there are still a lot of countries in Asia and Africa that have not had a big surge in cases that are sitting ducks for a highly transmissible variant.

I'm not sure why you're saying that patent protections have prevented India from manufacturing vaccines. That did not happen. At all. You sound like you're just on some sort of rant against Western Countries.

Very bluntly, India has been producing vaccines full throttle for months. Bharat Biotech's vaccine was approved in January, along with AstraZeneca. Right now, India, mass-producing both, still can't even produce enough for its own population, and has been unable to export to other countries to fulfill previous contracts.

In contrast, many other vaccines, including Sputnik and Pfizer, had applied for approval, but ran into issues with India's SEC, which required local trials for approval. On top of that, many Indian medical experts already indicated Pfizer and Moderna were not suitable for mass production or use in India, because of their storage requirements. One requires -80 C storage, and the other requires - 20 C storage. Contrast this with Astrazeneca which can be stored for up to 6 months at 4 C. In India, where the healthcare system is already falling short as is, there is absolutely no way they would have enough ultra-low-temp freezers to store and transport either of the mRNA vaccines.

Even if India RECEIVED immediate approval for open manufacture of Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines, they would be able to do nothing with it. They don't have freezers for storage.

Seyta wrote:

trashcan wrote:

If you look at what is happening right now it is quite concerning. Cases have been rising incredibly rapidly over the past month, and a seven day average for deaths is 3572. If you predict deaths based on a proportion of cases the expectation for the upcoming weeks is very concerning. If you predict a two week lag between cases and deaths you would be looking at something on the order of 6100 deaths/day in two weeks. If you predict a four week like between cases and deaths we will be talking over 15000deaths/day

There will not be a lag.

The lag only exists in regions where there is adequate testing to catch cases before they reach a problematic point in the hosts. This is true in most of Europe and the US.

Compare this to Mexico. The country's government has always been opposed to widespread testing, and the result is that the deaths and cases align almost perfectly in terms of rising and falling. That is because they only test very obvious and severe cases.

India's testing is more like Mexico than Europe or the US (you can tell from their past case and death history). Government officials have openly stated in the past that testing is inadequate (after their first wave, some public health officials announced they believe 100 million or more had already been infected), so they will not catch most cases.

Seyta wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

It is generally the same story whether it is India Brazil, Europe or the US. COVID 19 always is able to cause a surge in cases as long as there is an opportunity to infect. In India it was a familiar story. Containment had been successful and the government eased restrictions. There was evidence of case growth in March and the government did not react. A highly transmissible variant took over and caused a massive outbreak. There was almost no protection from vaccination as all the rich countries bought up the first available vaccine supplies and patent protections prevented India, which has a massive vaccine manufacturing industry, from making affordable generic vaccines. The US and EU blocked attempts to lift patent protections for vaccines. It may not have been in time to save India from the current outbreak, but there are still a lot of countries in Asia and Africa that have not had a big surge in cases that are sitting ducks for a highly transmissible variant.

I'm not sure why you're saying that patent protections have prevented India from manufacturing vaccines. That did not happen. At all. You sound like you're just on some sort of rant against Western Countries.

Very bluntly, India has been producing vaccines full throttle for months. Bharat Biotech's vaccine was approved in January, along with AstraZeneca. Right now, India, mass-producing both, still can't even produce enough for its own population, and has been unable to export to other countries to fulfill previous contracts.

In contrast, many other vaccines, including Sputnik and Pfizer, had applied for approval, but ran into issues with India's SEC, which required local trials for approval. On top of that, many Indian medical experts already indicated Pfizer and Moderna were not suitable for mass production or use in India, because of their storage requirements. One requires -80 C storage, and the other requires - 20 C storage. Contrast this with Astrazeneca which can be stored for up to 6 months at 4 C. In India, where the healthcare system is already falling short as is, there is absolutely no way they would have enough ultra-low-temp freezers to store and transport either of the mRNA vaccines.

Even if India RECEIVED immediate approval for open manufacture of Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines, they would be able to do nothing with it. They don't have freezers for storage.

Seyta wrote:

what in the wrote:

Even more surprising i sthat after all the photos and videos of Chinese partying and dancing maskless for 10 months they have barely and cases or deaths to show for. Hmmmm

China has a systematic method of controlling their population in a way that can utterly prevent spread.

For example, an entire city was put under complete lockdown. Not the kind of partial lockdowns that Europe and the US instituted in some places, but an actual lockdown, where the vast majority of people were not even physically permitted to leave their homes, and the mandate was actually enforced.

If you recall, there was a death penalty for attempting to break quarantine (and it was actually enforced).

They also have the most advanced system of contact tracing there is (largely thanks to years of efforts in finding ways to monitor the population).

It should not be surprising at all that the virus is able to be controlled in China. These are the benefits of a single centralized government with absolute authority in a generally-developed nation. The cost of course, is that there is only a single centralized government with absolute authority in a generally-developed nation.