Oh baby. Hocker vs Nuguse @ Oregon Twilight

Rojo I am with you that both guys make the 1500 team. That being said, Hocker is sharper at this stage and I expect he wins by around a second here. Nuguse will be closing the gap over the next month-plus.

same as it ever wuz wrote:

Don’t forget to delete/hijack the original thread on this so that yours appears first.

Anyway, word is Yared is healthy, just not quite 1500m racing sharp.

Agreed. It’s kind of weird how he seems to do that so much.

Let it Rupp wrote:

As for Nuguse vs. Hocker - you have to go with Hocker. I think Nuguse benefitted from a weak field in 2019, he's good but he would not have been able to outkick guys like Kerr, Murphy or Engels.

It had the defending champ Oliver Hoare, who beat Kerr the year previously, and it was still a weak field?

In his PR race which is only 3:38.32, he finished 3rd behind Oli Hoare and Carlos V. He hasn’t proven to me yet that he can win a time trial style race. He did run some impressive solo mile and 3k runs in the 2020 indoor season so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s right there with Teare and Hocker with 200m to go.

I’m guessing Charlie Hunter will be pacing since he has no interest in pursuing the 1500m considering he has little to no chance of making the team for Australia in that event. Also James West, a 3:34 guy is in the race so this should be very fast.

Let it Rupp wrote:

As for Nuguse vs. Hocker - you have to go with Hocker. I think Nuguse benefitted from a weak field in 2019, he's good but he would not have been able to outkick guys like Kerr, Murphy or Engels. Hocker is on a new tier, though, and should be better than all of those guys I listed, including Nuguse. There is just no way Yared is going to have an answer for the 1:46 speed and 13:19 strength of Hocker.

Nuguse beat the defending champ in that race. The same guy who ran 3:32 indoors and opened outdoors w/ 3:33 this season.

snarkatinesid1 wrote:

Hocker by a hair...

He does have a lot of hair. If he does only win by a hair then he better not cut it since he needs it to win.

This is definitely set up for chasing the Olympic Standard. It’s Olympic Standard or bust.

cardioup wrote:

This is definitely set up for chasing the Olympic Standard. It’s Olympic Standard or bust.

I feel like anyone who could finish top 3 at the OTs will have a high enough world ranking at 1500m to not need the standard.

Not so sure about that, Walter.

But, you would figure this race is set up for 3:36 or faster, as Villanova guys Comber and Dolan who have run 3:37.76 and 3:38.60 are shipping way West to try for the Trials standard only a week before Big East, which is always a focus for them.

same as it ever wuz wrote:

Don’t forget to delete/hijack the original thread on this so that yours appears first.

Anyway, word is Yared is healthy, just not quite 1500m racing sharp.

My bad. I' ve merged the two threads.

wannabepro25 wrote:

https://goducks.com/documents/2021/5/3//Accepted_Entries_Oregon_Twilight.pdf?id=31401

The matchup we've been waiting for is finally here!

Except Hocker is much better. Nuguse is just another guy in this race. I wouldn’t even take the bet of him finishing second.

Nguse has run one track race since 2020 indoors - that 5k to start the year. That was off his XC strength. He has geared his training towards NCAA Nationals and the Trials. Sure he will not be as racing sharp as some of the others. This will also be the first track race this year for his 1500 teammate, Jake Renfree (All-American in XC), and the first outdoor race for Sam Voelz in the 800, who was 4th indoors. ACC is next weekend and this will be a rust-buster for all of them.

I hope this isn't considered hijacking this thread, but I see that Brenda Martinez is in the 800. I didn't realize she was still running. That could be an interesting result.

surveysays wrote:

Let it Rupp wrote:

As for Nuguse vs. Hocker - you have to go with Hocker. I think Nuguse benefitted from a weak field in 2019, he's good but he would not have been able to outkick guys like Kerr, Murphy or Engels.

It had the defending champ Oliver Hoare, who beat Kerr the year previously, and it was still a weak field?

Ollie Hoare wasn't the Ollie Hoare we know now back in 2018. The outdoor final that year went out super slow and Hoare capitalized and Kerr had a bad day, it happens. Hoare finishing 4th the next year should prove his win was somewhat flukish. The guys who finished second and third to Nuguse had 3:39 and 3:41 1500 PRs. So yeah, it was a weak field.

Look how much faster both the 2018 and the 2021 1500 performance list is compared to 2019, it doesn't even compare.

Yared is definitely a very good runner, but at this point saying that he will make the world team seems very premature. I am not saying he will never be a world-team type of guy in the future, though.

I love how Hoare was apparently a scrub in 2019 after beating Kerr and before running 3:32.

I find it hard to believe that he will be competitive for the win in his first 1500m in two years, but I laugh at calling his 1500m title weak. Only 3 of the top 11 times from your 2018 list graduated - the rest had a chance in 2019 and couldn’t get it done!

Movie critic wrote:

I hope this isn't considered hijacking this thread, but I see that Brenda Martinez is in the 800. I didn't realize she was still running. That could be an interesting result.

Anyone starting a pool on how many runners hit the track?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Rojo I am with you that both guys make the 1500 team.

Both aren't making the Olympic team. One may.

Skip to 30:20 for the start.

This was Yared's last mile race in 2020. He dominated and ran a solo 3:55 with splits of 1:55/2:00. I don't think he will have problem going out in olympic standard pace, the question is, will he be able to close fast off of it.

Also I wonder if he will put the dragonfly's on and cover it up with the Under Armor Logo....

I didn't say scrub, but he obviously wasn't the guy we think of now and he just happened to have a really good day back in 2018 - it happens pretty frequently in tactical races. Geordie Beamish won the indoor mile the next year in 4:07 (with Hoare in the race) in what was definitely a fluke, and Hoare's win was a fluke at the time as well. Hoare just happened to drastically improve since then, meanwhile Beamish hasn't, which is why people are arguing that he was really good back in 2018 when he was more along the lines of an average top-5 NCAA guy.

Nuguse's title is soft compared to previous ones (it's not like you can even compare his field to the previous 3 years or to the current one), but not a fluke since he was one of the favorites due to his DMR performance at indoors. He won in a slow field though which is why I don't think he is near the level of Hocker at this point.