Anything is possible wrote:
I’m wondering how much you think is enough to retire on at say, age 56? I know that answer is different for everyone, but I’m assuming home paid off and kids out of college. What is the rough number to be able to retire, assuming a lifespan of 30 years +/- beyond the mid-50s?
Agree that the number is different for everyone, but since I am planning to retire this year at 56, maybe you'll find my process and guidelines helpful.
1. Get a firm grip on your current after-tax needs. Your tax situation after retirement is likely to be very different from what it is now -- so focus on your spending, not your income when planning. Don't forget to account for health insurance, especially for the 9 years until Medicare kicks in.
2. Calculate your net worth precisely. Take college costs off the top if that's a commitment you will make, as well as any other one-time expenses that you can foresee.
3. Separate pre-tax and post-tax assets. They are not the same. A dollar in a checking account or personal stock account (principal) is a dollar you can spend. A dollar in a retirement account may be worth 80 cents in spending power (maybe less, maybe more). On the bright side, even your (long-term) taxable assets won't be taxed as heavily as your W-2 income was, since you won't be paying into SS and Medicare anymore -- and you won't be paying into a retirement plan, either. To the extent that you can limit spending from taxable accounts to an amount near/below your deductions, your taxable income could be little or nothing many years. [ Note: for the next 3-4 years, you have to avoid drawing from retirement accounts with penalties for early withdrawals.]
4. Assume 4% return on your investments over time. This is a fairly conservative estimate, but you may want to assume 3% if you are very conservative -- or 5% if you aren't.
5. Calculate what you'll get from Social Security and any pensions you may have. If you don't have a statement handy, you can get all you need here:
https://secure.ssa.gov/RIR/If you've been paying in for 30 years or more, you can expect to get close to the maximum for someone at your salary level. If you've been averaging $100K or more for 30 years, you can expect close to 50K/year if you delay SS until age 70, and that comes with cost of living adjustments.
6. Divide your after-tax assets by 25 and your pre-tax assets by 30. Can you live on that amount until you begin taking social security? If so, you can afford to retire without spending down your next egg at all. If not, divide by 20 and 25 and reassess. If that is enough, you are still in quite good shape, but your net worth will go down by about 1%+inflation each year until SS/pension kicks in. If it's still not enough, you can add your SS income into the mix and make a plan for bridging the gap to the age at which you plan to start drawing SS. I'm conservative, so I waited until I met the most stringent standard above, and I am thinking of Social Security as extra money that I will have after age 70 to make up for any shortfalls, investment mishaps, health crises, inflation spikes, etc. Same goes for any inheritance I might get.