Bryce Hoppel 47.68

For a dude who has a 1.43 low PR and is a 3.40 1500m runner (just ran a 3min42 PR so I'm being generous there), 47.6 out of the blocks is basically perfectly in line with his bests.

He's for sure a sub 47 guy in a relay/rolling start 400m but probably mid/high 46's at best - which is still close to elite speed for a world class 800m runner (you can't use Rudisha or Emmanuel Korir as benchmarks because those guys are massive outliers).

If Hoppel was to evolve into a 3.37/38 1500m runner then he would be the best in the world over 2 laps. Right now I'm not fully convinced that Brazier is really better than Hoppel - Hoppel is my underground pick to win Tokyo if it goes ahead.

JumpsDoctor wrote:

map maps wrote:

Gotta love letsrun. Here we have a fresh FAT 400 time and people are still speculating about split times.

As I commented earlier, he ran a 1:45 800m at the same meet on the same day. It's unclear which event he did first(?), but either way it's valid to speculate as to what his true 400m speed might be, since he was clearly not just participating in the meet to assess his true 400m ability, but rather to get a workout in.

I think the 800 was the night before?

On the results it says 8:15pm Friday night he ran 1:45 with a pacer, wins pretty easily. Next day at 2:30pm he runs 47.6. Doesn't seem like ideal conditions considering how guys were off their PBs by a second or more in the 400. So likely he's sub-47 capable, but either way solid low-key double. Thinking of the year Symmonds won WC Silver, he does have a similar luxury to not be in his absolute peak 1:42hi/1:43lo shape for the Trials. If he is in 1:43hi shape that should be enough for top 3 even if it means Brazier pull away easily at the end. I don't think both Harris and Murphy produce that in the Final.

Hoppel is going to test Brazier, but honestly how can he beat him without a bit of luck when Brazier's faster at 1500m, 3:35 and 3:37 or 3:38 in the same race as Hoppel ran 3:43, and faster at 400m, with a 46.6 or so official time and sub 46 splits documented?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

On the results it says 8:15pm Friday night he ran 1:45 with a pacer, wins pretty easily. Next day at 2:30pm he runs 47.6. Doesn't seem like ideal conditions considering how guys were off their PBs by a second or more in the 400. So likely he's sub-47 capable, but either way solid low-key double. Thinking of the year Symmonds won WC Silver, he does have a similar luxury to not be in his absolute peak 1:42hi/1:43lo shape for the Trials. If he is in 1:43hi shape that should be enough for top 3 even if it means Brazier pull away easily at the end. I don't think both Harris and Murphy produce that in the Final.

Just encouraging thought here - what makes you think Brazier pulls away easily in winning the trials? More and more I view Brazier and Hoppel as being very evenly matched. For sure Brazier had a patch of form in 2019 that Hoppel hasn't reached as yet in his career (the DL final win and then the outstanding world title/AR) but that doesn't mean Brazier either approaches this ever again and it doesn't mean that Hoppel couldn't also do the same. Both Hoppel and Brazier are as sure a bet as you could possibly have in the mens 800 to make the team

I believe Brazier is more talented. If he is healthy and training hard the ceiling is that much higher. Recall that last year he was battling injury throughout and still did what he did. I think that isn’t the new norm and that he approaches those 2019 heights frequently. I like Hoppel and he’s on a great run of form, but I like Braziers chances more.

VIPAM wrote:

I like B. Hopper but no way he is capable of running 45 high this year, I give him 46 low on a very good day and maybe chance at 45 high the same odds as winning the lottery.

Swaglord_the_realest_1 wrote:

Damn pretty good, he's got the wheels. You gotta figure peaked in good conditions he can dip just into 45-high.

Just rubbish talk.

The difference between 46 low and 45 high is insignificant.

The day, the wind. the comp, it all finds a way

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I believe Brazier is more talented. If he is healthy and training hard the ceiling is that much higher. Recall that last year he was battling injury throughout and still did what he did. I think that isn’t the new norm and that he approaches those 2019 heights frequently. I like Hoppel and he’s on a great run of form, but I like Braziers chances more.

Staying healthy and relentlessly progressing like Hopple is a talent anyone would envy. Brazier is gonna have his hands full this go round.

BuckleUp wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I believe Brazier is more talented. If he is healthy and training hard the ceiling is that much higher. Recall that last year he was battling injury throughout and still did what he did. I think that isn’t the new norm and that he approaches those 2019 heights frequently. I like Hoppel and he’s on a great run of form, but I like Braziers chances more.

Staying healthy and relentlessly progressing like Hopple is a talent anyone would envy. Brazier is gonna have his hands full this go round.

My money is on Brazier, he was a commanding world champ last season, and he has only expanded on his indoor performances, no reason to believe he isn’t gonna PR outdoors peaked. Not trying to be a brazier worshiper, but I think we could see sub 1:42 from him.

Hoppel has very much surprised me this last year, however, and maybe he will surprise me again. I think Hoppel is next in line for the 800m throne, but it’s not his turn yet. I think as of now,

1. Brazier 1:41.9x

2. Hoppel 1:42.5

3. Giles 1:42.x

xczvzxcv wrote:

Hoppel is going to test Brazier, but honestly how can he beat him without a bit of luck when Brazier's faster at 1500m, 3:35 and 3:37 or 3:38 in the same race as Hoppel ran 3:43, and faster at 400m, with a 46.6 or so official time and sub 46 splits documented?

Because the 800m is one event where luck is extremely important. Hoppel just has great instincts and not that I am saying Brazier doesn't, but the one advantage Hoppel has - is that he is not on the radar like Brazier is as the world champ and he is very much the hunter and not the one being hunted. The 800m is maybe the single toughest event to stay on top of.

PRs in bookend events (the 4 and 15) mean something but not everything. I mean Korir is the fastest 800m runner in terms of 400m PR I can recall (he's even faster than Juantorena) and by way of that a lot of people naturally think he would simply dominate slower paced races because of that - except that isn't the case.

Look all your points are valid and not wrong. I just have a feeling about Hoppel and I have some experience around 800m running and 800m runners. Because of Braziers great 2019 season we kind of overlook the fact Hoppel is still a 1.43 low performer - he easily has the credentials to win a major championship with his current PR and race ability. That also includes races with Donovan Brazier.

good thread.

with the wind the 47 is a 46.

so hoppel is a 46 guy until further notice.

as always the off distance seldom run distance understates the ability.

these comments are for learning.

people in the know know.

I think Brazier is a lot more talented than Hoppel. I think if they both ran their absolute bests, Brazier beats Hoppel by over a second.

I like Hoppel and they are roughly the same age so it should be a great next few years if they both healthy.

Hoppel is no where near Brazier right now. As others have noted, Donavan has just run 3:38 to Hoppel's 3:43. Brazier clearly has more strength and speed. Not to mention his American 800 record in a world champs final is on a whole different level of talent. Hoppel is good but Brazier is great.

wannabepro25 wrote:

https://live.pttiming.com/?mid=2232

Who cares.

Wow big deal a 47.6 from an 800 runner.

So slow.

I don't get why he's so weak that he couldn't just do like a 44.9.

What a joke. Pathetic.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

For a dude who has a 1.43 low PR and is a 3.40 1500m runner (just ran a 3min42 PR so I'm being generous there), 47.6 out of the blocks is basically perfectly in line with his bests.

He's for sure a sub 47 guy in a relay/rolling start 400m but probably mid/high 46's at best - which is still close to elite speed for a world class 800m runner (you can't use Rudisha or Emmanuel Korir as benchmarks because those guys are massive outliers).

If Hoppel was to evolve into a 3.37/38 1500m runner then he would be the best in the world over 2 laps. Right now I'm not fully convinced that Brazier is really better than Hoppel - Hoppel is my underground pick to win Tokyo if it goes ahead.

Yeah pretty sure last time everyone checked that 46 seconds is not fast enough.

And neither is 45 seconds.

Unless he breaks 45 then it doesn't count and he's basically not fast.

Actually you know what?

Unless he breaks 42 seconds and gets down into the 41 second range, then he's not fast at all.

A 41.97 would be a good time.