When will they announce the cancellation of the Olympics?

Oh Please wrote:

It's not going to be canceled. The May Sumo basho is going on right now, in the middle of Tokyo. Too much money involved.

Aside from the Mongolians who are living in Japan for years, those sumo wrestlers are Japanese.

They don't run around screaming "my body, my freedom!"

Not that foreign athletes will actually do that. But that's the image imprinted into the minds of SJWs in Japan by the anti-Olympic media.

turkey man wrote:

Make a prediction.

If Japan can’t vaccinate their citizens let the US host the Olympics. We can even stick the foreign athletes with a J&J after they are done with their event. Yeah Japan built all the Olympic stuff and the US doesn’t have an Olympic village sitting around but something can be figured out. If it’s no Olympics vs. Olympics-lite in the US I’ll take the latter.

chicken man wrote:

turkey man wrote:

Make a prediction.

If Japan can’t vaccinate their citizens let the US host the Olympics. We can even stick the foreign athletes with a J&J after they are done with their event. Yeah Japan built all the Olympic stuff and the US doesn’t have an Olympic village sitting around but something can be figured out. If it’s no Olympics vs. Olympics-lite in the US I’ll take the latter.

huh? you have to vaccinate people weeks*before* the games, not after.

COVID cases and deaths are just below all time highs in Japan.

Vaccinations are starting to pick up: 4% of the population has had at least one shot.

US is stuck at around 47% at least one shot.

well in my opinion we are just passing through this peak of public pressure and calls for cancellation, I don't think the situation will get worse than it is and if they can hold on to this pressure then Olympics will happen. If they will be a success or a disaster is another story but it seems they will happen, or at least, it seems they will start.

Every day that passes it makes it harder for the cancellation. We might have reached the point where it is too late to cancel it anyway.

the COVID surge in Japan continues

this week over last week:

Cases +13%

Deaths +31%

This is Jim Kiler wrote:

They'll cancel the 2020/21 Olympics the third week of May, of this year.

Another one bites the dust

63 days until Tokyo!

Oh Thank Goodness!!! Tokyo is on a major vaccination roll and Thomas Bach says the Games will go on and the Japanese people must make sacrifices.

Wow, just wow. The BBC reports that “Japan has kicked off a mass vaccination programme in Tokyo and Osaka.”

OK, that sounds good until you read the stats: “Officials are planning to vaccinate up to 5,000 people in Tokyo and 2,500 in Osaka every day…” 5000 people?? In a city of 13 million and a metropolitan area of 37 million??? Oh, that ought to do it… We’re all safe now. They’re even going to loosen up (just a bit) the requirement that the vaccination be administered by a medical doctor or registered nurse (can’t be too careful here…).

Nevertheless, realism seeps through the cracks:

Japan's healthcare system… overwhelmed…some hospitals running out of beds and ventilators. "Simply put, this is a collapse of the medical system," said the director of Kindai University Hospital in Osaka.

So, on that positive note, let’s see what the Guardian had to say about the same subject:

The IOC insisted “that “sacrifices” must be made to ensure the Games go ahead in Tokyo regardless of the coronavirus situation in Japan…” The backlash ramped up the calls for the Games to be cancelled. Social media users accused John Coates and IOC president Thomas Bach of ignoring the Japanese public sentiment, which is overwhelmingly opposed to holding the Games this year.

“Thomas Bach and John Coates are neck and neck in the race for the most hated pariah here. I predict a dead heat,” said a Japanese Twitter user.

Currently more than 80% of the Japanese people want the Olympics to be postponed or cancelled but meanwhile Japanese media report on the “royal” status Bach and other senior IOC and sports officials enjoy during their time in Japan. The IOC has block-booked suites and rooms in at least four of Tokyo’s most expensive hotels, with the IOC footing only a fraction of the bill.

Meanwhile, a local sponsor of the games, The Hokkaido Shimbun, accused the prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, of “forfeiting his responsibility for people’s lives and health,” and another sponsor said the Games should be cancelled.

“We are in no mood to celebrate an event filled with fear and anxiety,” the newspaper said. “The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics should be canceled ... the government must make the decision to protect the lives and livelihood of the people.”

I must say that I see the chances of the Olympics happening increasing a bit, as the start is just two months away. The IOC’s insistence is getting stronger. Bach, Coates and Company are showing that they are in no mood to listen to the Japanese people and they repeat that the Games will go ahead safely and securely (remember Goebbels: “A lie repeated a thousand times becomes the truth…”).

I wonder how Olympic Insider, Agip and TokyoNoGo feel about this? I’m not saying the Games are going to happen, just that the IOC is making it more and more difficult to cancel.

Who you gonna believe? Thomas Bach or your lyin' eyes??

Bach did not say that Japanese people had to make sacrifice. And he even clarified that "everyone" who needed to make sacrifice did not include regular Japanese people.

But the crooked media intentionally distorted his words to galvanize the opposition against the Olympics, and the gullible public has largely accepted this deception. Many of them believe that Olympic athletes from other countries are a bunch of entitled narcissists who are not willing to make any sacrifice whatsoever.

Spainflyer, a few thoughts on my end. Who can afford a cancellation, even if deep down all parties involved know that the right thing to do is to cancel it? I don't think the IOC can. It will cost billions. I don't think it is possible to activate insurance once again - it has been reported in the media they activated it last year due to the postponement - and therefore cancelling the Games now would be equal to losing these billions. The Japanese Government in theory can't (due to the limitations of the host city contract). In practical terms they can well decide to cancel it. But they are reluctant for the following reasons: a) the billions that I believe would be incurred on them to pay; b) honour; c) rivalry with China - they don't want to cancel it and a few months later the Chinese organise impeccable winter games. This would be a huge, massive, losing face situation to their biggest economical, political and historical rivals. Don't underestimate the rivalry between these two countries. d) Possibility that the Games go ahead successfully - such a great story "the world beating the virus through the strength and resilience of the Japanese people". Even if d) is a remote possibility, it could still happen. And you have to agree it is very attractive to politicians in power to distort the probability of it happening from say 10% to 50%+ Then, who else. Broadcasters will of course not push for cancellation. Athletes? Some of them might, but most of them are hopeful that the Olympics happen and they can be part of it. Other Governments won't stand in the way of the Japanese Government. National Olympic Committees won't cancel for the same reasons the IOC won't - massive money-losing for them. The ones with the power to cancel it: the people of Japan and especially Tokyo. But it needs to be something massive. Massive protests, massive riots, something that is not possible to ignore, both by the mainstream media, Government officials and even the IOC. I just don't see it happening in Japan.

Thanks, Olympic Insider. All very well reasoned. A couple of comments and questions:

A cancellation…will cost billions.

Clearly this is true. Of course, many of the Japanese who had hoped to profit from the Games (hoteliers, restaurant owners, tourism and transport companies) are not going to make anything like what they had hoped, or perhaps anything at all.

The Japanese Government in theory can't (cancel).

My question – asked in all innocence and ignorance – is how much is the Japanese state due to make from the Games? Clearly Japan is financing most of the preparations, including the Olympic village, but are they due something from the IOC once the Games are over? If not, what financial incentive would the Japanese government have at this pointfor going ahead?

Or is it rather the other way round? If the Games are cancelled, Japan owes the IOC for its “losses?” One could argue that, up until now, the IOC has incurred relatively few expenses, and is counting on media revenue to set themselves up for the next four years. If there is no media event (i.e. Games) to broadcast, is it fair that Japan might have to make the IOC whole?

Japan is reluctant to cancel because of rivalry with Winter Games host China.

I suspect this is a powerful motivator for Tokyo, especially as the JOC and the Japanese government know that, given their track record with Covid, China will not cancel or postpone the Winter Games, no matter how dire the pandemic situation might be.

Broadcasters will of course not push for cancellation.

This goes without saying. But if the Games do go ahead, clearly there will be hiccups. The 13-hour time difference between Tokyo and the US East Coast means that events will be broadcast in the early morning hours in the US, or that they will be presented on tape delay. This happened with Sydney and the complaints were loud. The US audience may not be as large as expected / hoped for.

NBC, the US media outlet, sent more than 2000 professionals to cover the Rio Olympics. It would seem that, given the restrictions on movement in Tokyo, they might need even more people on the ground in July. Is the network ready to take responsibility for any health issues its staff might have or develop? Especially given the recent US State Department highest level warning: “Don’t Go.” Lawsuits are a national sport in the US. Just to consider…

Athletes (push for cancellation)?

A few individuals – including Japan’s high-profile tennis star Naomi Osaka and Spain’s Rafa Nadal – have made not-so-veiled comments that they might not compete. But you are right, the athletes are among the healthiest people on the planet and really face very little risk. The danger, it seems to me, would be if an athlete (or other member of the “Olympic family”) were to contract the virus and seek treatment or hospitalization ahead of Japanese citizens, there might be some grumbling. With people dying of Covid in their homes in Japan because there are no beds left at hospitals, a televised scene of (insert famous athlete here) being admitted to hospital would not be a popular one.

National Olympic Committees won't cancel for the same reasons the IOC won't - massive money-losing for them.

I do understand this, but it was in fact national OCs that began the pull-out last year, leading to the postponement of Tokyo 2020. But we now know a lot more about Covid than we did a year ago, including treatment options (thanks, Trump) so perhaps worry on the parts of sports authorities has diminished.

The ones with the power to cancel it: the people of Japan and especially Tokyo. But it needs to be something massive. Massive protests, massive riots, something that is not possible to ignore, both by the mainstream media, Government officials and even the IOC.

And this, as has been observed on this string, is not really part of Japanese culture, so I wouldn’t count on it. But if holding the games can be shown to be a major vote-loser for Prime Minister Suga and his party this might tip the balance back toward considering cancellation.

So, here we are, in the last week of May, when some had predicted that the announcement that the announcement would be made for cancellation. And yet, odds of the Games being held seem to be increasing. I would now see the chances of holding the Olympic Games as scheduled at about 65% and the initiative seems to be with the IOC. The athletes have had a year of frustration with reduced training options. National OCs have not spoken up loudly. And Thomas Bach continues to repeat his mantra: “Safe…Secure…Successful.” No problem.