When will they announce the cancellation of the Olympics?

i see your point, but one could argue that in Japan the coronavirus cases and deaths is trending up and in the US is trending down, that makes a huge difference. in any case it is irrelevant to the discussion. Even if the US or any other country had beaten the virus 100% and had 0 cases going on, it would still be impossible to move the host at this stage - even if the venues are all ready the discussion is if Tokyo will host it or the Games will be cancelled for good. believe me there's no other option

trollism wrote:

olympic insider wrote:

0% chances that anywhere in the World can host the Olympic Games at this point rather than Tokyo

Event Operations doesn't happen by magic, even if the infra-structure is mostly there.

venue infra-structure is not the problem now

event operations is

Be a bit odd to move it to a country with 10 times the number of current deaths per day and about 7 times the number of cases per day than the place they're moving from.

"Event operations" or whatever you call it is not that difficult. LA could hold it in two weeks if they truly wanted.

[quote]olympic insider wrote:

0% chances that anywhere in the World can host the Olympic Games at this point rather than Tokyo. Event Operations doesn't happen by magic, even if the infra-structure is mostly there.

[quote]joed|rt wrote:

It is very probable that Olympic Insider is right. But let’s think outside the box for a minute. It has already been suggested on this thread that only the most popular and traditional sports be held, with badminton, skateboarding and the like saved for 2024.

What if…we talk about just track and field athletics. What if we include just athletes and coaches, and get rid of the free riders of the “Olympic family”? What if we require that all athletes and coaches be vaccinated at least two weeks before the Games (Pfizer has already offered free shots)?

And what if we choose a location that has all the infrastructure but has been hit very hard by Covid restrictions (not by Covid, but by government-mandated Covid restrictions)?

One place is Benidorm, on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. This is a small city built entirely for tourism, except that tourists can’t/won’t come right now. Benidorm lives from British tourists (77% of the 5 million arrivals in 2019) but Boris, in his wisdom, has put all of Spain on the UK “Red List” for summer 2021.

Benidorm is desparate for visitors and it has the infrastructure:

21,000 hotel rooms with 41,000 beds.

Another 8,000 vacation apartments with 21,000 beds.

625 restaurants with 27,000 covers.

Benidorm has three, all-weather tracks:

https://www.google.es/search?q=pistas+atletismo+alicante&sxsrf=ALeKk01za_VEIOEka49a8bq8ea5LiC2lrg:1620719061365&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwilqLv_kMHwAhWnsKQKHUgmALkQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&biw=1280&bih=657#imgrc=_wMi8_JVAL0uGM

and another 8-lane, certified track next door in La Nucía.

“It ain’t Bislett but it ain’t bad….”

Benidorm has a fleet of municipal busses, virtually unused these days. There is also a fleet of busses linking Benidorm to the Alicante airport that are scheduled to run every half hour, and are semi-dormant. All could be put back into service on 24 hours notice.

There is an international airport at Alicante (38km / 24 miles) away and transportation could easily be arranged from both the Madrid and Barcelona airports. Madrid-Alicante by high-speed train: 3 hours and 41 minutes.

The Benidorm Visitors and Conventions Bureau is one of the most active and enterprising in Spain, and I suspect they would welcome a call from Lord Coe…

Just a thought...

Caleb's Hat wrote:

agip wrote:

Japan percent population with one shot: 2.4%

How is that possible? That is pathetic.

68% of Northern Ireland vaccinated with first dose. 98% of >60 year olds. 100% of >80 year olds.

Come to Belfast and we can have them at Down Royal Racecourse.

well it is not only benidorm, there are well hundreds maybe thousands of cities keen to host athletics and sport events Olympic Games is a different monster in Athletics you organise male and female competition and thats done. in the olympics you organise 66 world championships of various sports under the same umbrella, then you add the opening ceremony which by itself is already a huge event, then the closing, then all the events within the city one difference - global attention. There's a huge difference from Olympics to anything else, except perhaps the Fifa Football World Cup, for being global, for attracting billions of viewers it is not niche as organising an athletics event everybody follows and for that you need more broadcasters, media no way it happens without thousands of trained volunteers the concern now for the IOC is this - athletes raising concerns on the Gameshttps://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210511-osaka-not-sure-tokyo-olympics-should-go-ahead

A good scenario to explain Nash's Games Theory

- vaccination is japan is going really bad. If Japan cancels it, will they lose face as the story in the media will be how bad vaccination is going? That is the dilemma of the Japanese government

- if they take the initiative to cancel it - who will pay the billionaire bill?

- the IOC doesn't seem to be taking the initiative of a cancellation, waiting for Japan to do it. Can the Japanese government do it? And if they can't, will the IOC really push ahead and risk a huge damage to an already damaged Olympic brand?

well, i will be watching the giro this afternoon, and then the tour. some can do it. the japanese are handling this whole thing horribly.

A couple of comments on Olympic Insider’s earlier post:

Vaccination is japan is going really bad. If Japan cancels it, will they lose face as the story in the media will be how bad vaccination is going? That is the dilemma of the Japanese government

That story is out. Almost every news item mentions the tiny percentage of the Japanese population that has been vaccinated. That percentage will barely rise before July 23rd, because in Japan the vaccine must be administered by a doctor or a registered nurse, and they are busy treating patients. Other than pride (and in Japan this is a strong motivation), Japan itself has very little incentive to carry on with the Games. There will be no spectators to pour money into local businesses, so the only effect will be athletes from 196 nations bringing the UK, the Brazilian, the Indian and several other strains of Coronavirus into the Japanese population.

If they take the initiative to cancel it - who will pay the billionaire bill?

That bill has already been paid – the cost (or the loans) of building the sports and housing infrastructure has gone to construction companies, contractors, etc. Those who haven’t been paid…good luck. At least Japan has the buildings, which are scheduled to be turned into housing at the end of this year (one more reason they can’t hold the Summer Olympics in 2022). They will eventually be sold, and bills from local companies will be paid.

But it is the IOC that stands to get royally stiffed, so is it any wonder that the IOC is insisting that the Games will go on (shades of Avery Brundage…)? IOC income comes mainly from television rights, which are estimated to be at least 2.15 billion USD for the Tokyo Games (an exact figure is hard to determine, since many broadcasting companies, like NBC in the US, sign long-term contracts that cover multiple Olympic Games).

This hits the IOC and its executives where it hurts. Thomas Bach’s compensation is not disclosed, but it is well into six figures – and possibly seven -- at an organization where an intern earns 3100 USD a month. So if the check from the media doesn’t come before July 23rd, there won’t be another one for the next three years…

Spainflyer, I believe we probably share a similar view, but allow me to comment a few points. Yes, the story is out that vaccination is not going well in Japan. But so far the Games are going ahead. If the Games are cancelled of course the media will connect the dots and at least partially, Japan will have to take the blame (even if it is an unfair blame, and it is IMO; the cancellation of the Games will be connected to the fact that vaccination is not going well). So answer the question - can the Japanese government (and broadly the "Japanese culture") handle the fact that, if they take the initiative to cancel the Games, there's a big risk they will lose face? In Japan as you have well raised the matters of "pride" and "honour" matter a lot. In fact they mean a ton more than we westerns will ever understand. I agree with you when you say that other than "pride" there's very little incentive for Japan to carry on, but, the reality is that "pride" makes the entire difference. The dilemma here is that it is very hard to imagine these Games going ahead but equally as hard to imagine the Japanese taking the initiative to cancel it. I disagree with your second point. The bill hasn't been paid. Not yet. Well, it has been paid mostly by the Japanese. But the bill I am talking about here is the bill for cancelling the Games. That is what matters at this stage. You well mentioned about the billions that broadcasters put into the Olympics. Yes, and be sure they insure that. If the Games are cancelled - those billions that fund the IOC - will have to return to broadcasters. Who bear the responsibility for these billions? Well, technically the IOC. But in real world is much more complicated. If the Japanese takes the initiative to go ahead and cancel it - can the IOC hold the Japanese government accountable for that decision and the financial losses that will result from it? This is the key question at stake here.

[quote]olympic insider wrote:

i see your point, but one could argue that in Japan the coronavirus cases and deaths is trending up and in the US is trending down,

Number on a screen unrelated to reality

Tokyo Games Contract

Some time ago Reuters published sections of the “Host City Contract” that Tokyo signed with the IOC. Advantage IOC is an understatement.

Let’s assume that the contract was written and signed by both parties in good faith. In light of the events of the past 15 months, how can Mme. Hidalgo sign something similar for Paris (probably already signed) or the Los Angeles City Council and Mayor Garcetti sign for LA 2028? Calling Brisbane – get out while you can!

Key provisions of the Host City Contract:

* The Olympics Games and all relevant rights – including broadcasting, reproduction, and staging rights - are the exclusive property of the IOC.

* The organisers must protect the IOC from any damages or claims related to the organising of the Games. This means the organisers may compensate the IOC for the damages they suffer, as well as payments the IOC is asked to make by third parties such as Olympic sponsors or broadcasters.

* The IOC can make changes to the Olympic program at any time. Such changes may include adding or deleting sports. The organisers bear the cost of those changes.

* Only the IOC can cancel the Olympics. The reason for doing so could be one of the following:

- Tokyo is not in a state to host the Olympics, such as being in the midst of a war or civil disorder;

- The IOC believes that the safety of the participants would be seriously threatened;

- The organisers breach the contract or any other applicable law.

But wait, there’s more!! Last week the Washington Post published a piece by sports correspondent Sally Jenkins. Among other revelations about the contract:

“it leaves host nations with crippling debts. Seven pages are devoted to “medical services” the host must provide — free of charge — to anyone with an Olympic credential, including rooms at local hospitals expressly reserved for them and only them. Tokyo organizers have estimated they will need to divert about 10,000 medical workers to service the IOC’s demands.”

Clearly this is impossible under current conditions. Will Tokyo be in breach of contract if they fail to supply VIP medical services to the entire “Olympic Family”? At the expense of their own citizens? “Ohayo gozaimasu, Thomas Bach. Welcome to Tokyo. We have news for you…”

Das Unkle wrote:

[quote]olympic insider wrote:

i see your point, but one could argue that in Japan the coronavirus cases and deaths is trending up and in the US is trending down,

Number on a screen unrelated to reality

But the number on the screen is what people make decisions on.

72 days until the opening ceremonies

Not looking good. Things are still deteriorating in Japan.

///

Cases at new highs, up 445% from March lows

Cases up 1% over last 7 days

(USA cases down 21% over last 7 days)

Deaths at new highs, up 275% from March lows

Deaths up 25% over last 7 days

(USA deaths down 12% over last 7 days)

Japan ranked 101st worst (1st being worst) in per capita cases over last 7 days). The nation's ranking is getting worse, steadily. (USA ranked worse: 64th worst)

Japan ranked 95th worst (1st being worst) in per capita deaths over last 7 days. This has been stable for the last few days. (USA ranked worse: 64th worst)

Japan percent population at least one shot: 2.9%

USA percent population at least one shot: 45.9%

I think they'll cancel in the next few weeks. Everyone is looking at India and saying 'holy cow this can happen to Japan because they are just 3% vaccinated' Japan has a very old, very urban, very unvaccinated, not-immune population. A nightmare situation.

Probably track will announce some kind of four-day impromptu invitational meet as a replacement. The marathon will be cancelled but London will take on the mantle as the ad hoc 2021 marathon championship.

agip wrote:

I think they'll cancel in the next few weeks...Japan because they are just 3% vaccinated' Japan has a very old, very urban, very unvaccinated, not-immune population. A nightmare situation.

Agip, Olympic Insider and I are pretty much on the same page here. While I would love to see the Olympics go forward in 75 days, I think it would be a big, big mistake, and the data appearing on this string confirm that.

We’ve been talking about the IOC or the Japanese government (or the Japanese health authorities, via the Japanese government) pulling the trigger and cancelling, or announcing another postponement and then cancelling.

But what seems to be happening now parallels what got the Games postponed last year: people and organizations are announcing that they’re reluctant, they’re reconsidering, or they’re not going to participate. In 2020 it started with Australia, then Canada, and finally several other nations withdrew in the months before the Games were scheduled to start. The writing was on the wall and the IOC + Japanese government finessed a “postponement.” Really, they had no choice.

This year we are just starting to see something similar:

Because of Covid fears, Gymnastics Canada decided not to send a team to a qualifying event, effectively ruling them out of Tokyo.

Naomi Osaka, Japan’s tennis star, has told the press she is ambivalent about participating, and not ready to make up her mind yet. “I’m not sure they should even hold the Olympics,” she said.

Rafa Nadal, 20-Grand Slam winner and Olympic gold medalist put it bluntly: “I’m almost 35, and I need to take care of my head and my body. Normally I would be all-in for the Olympics, but I’m not ready to decide yet.”

Covid tests are not 100% reliable, and some people are already voicing concern (that is, complaining) about the distinct possibility that false positives may exclude athletes who are not, in fact, infected, as happened to Belgium’s Eline Berings at the European Athletics Indoor Championships in March.

The US Olympic Track and Field team has cancelled its training camp in Chiba, near Tokyo, which had been scheduled for early July, citing Covid concerns.

And of course, 60+% of the Japanese people do NOT want the Olympics to go ahead, and more than 300,000 people have signed a petition saying just that.

Each of these – and other – moves, by itself, doesn’t push hard for cancellation. But when hesitation turns into reluctance, and reluctance turns into refusal it generates a tsunami, and all of the IOC’s billions can’t push it back.

Speculation: The current state of emergency in Tokyo and other Japanese cities expires on May 31st. If it is extended, as it very probably will / should be, that could be the signal that the Games are off. Thomas Bach couldn’t visit during the current state of emergency. How could 11,000 athletes go where Bach could not?

The US training camp cancellation is the US acknowledging the Games will soon be cancelled and they want to save money from paying the pre-camp costs they were soon about to lose. The IOC is in meltdown mode as Bach has cancelled several of his travels of late and trying to desperately salvage the Games but realizing there is no chance every hour that passes. The question becomes delay to 2022 or full on cancellation. Probably the later.

72 days away, and in the US, where things are trending down tremendously, we still have track meets with nobody there.

The Olympics are not going to happen, and will/should not ever happen again.

The vaccination debacle in Japan is pretty shocking. But there is still time. OGs are not until July 23. In 1947, NYC vaccinated about 5 million people for small pox in about two weeks. If Japan's government smashed through all of its bureaucratic road blocks, they could get the entire country vaccinated in about 6 weeks. The surge in cases in Japan is relatively big for Japan, but it is quite small compared to outbreaks in the EU and US and tiny compared to India and Brazil. A combination of a superfast mass vaccination campaign and increased COVID restrictions could save the day.

You can read the entire host city contract here.

There is no provision under which the host city can cancel the Games on its own initiative. So if they do, they will be sued for a breach of contract.

The jurisdiction belongs to CAS, and eventually the Swiss Supreme Court.

https://www.2020games.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/eng/taikaijyunbi/taikai/hcc/index.html