When will they announce the cancellation of the Olympics?

Great post. I just disagree with a few points:

- It won't be a postponement. It will be a cancellation.

- I don't think it will be in July and not even June. I see this coming by the end of May. It might come in the next 2 weeks.

- I believe you are right on who will take the initiative: the Japanese government. But to save face of politicians, the medical authorities will be the ones given the responsibility for the decision. It is hard to argue with that.

- I am not sure on how the IOC will communicate following the Japanese initiative, but they have to agree with the decision taken by the Japanese and back them up. They will also have some beautiful words written down so as soon as the Japanese take the decision they will also say they've made everything they could and so on.

- They are probably already discussing behind closed doors what will be a potential award for Japan to host the 2032 Olympics so that they can at least justify (even if not entirely) all the infra-structure cost when they announce the cancellation, and have the cancellation news with a positive tone.

Das Unkle wrote:

Right around the time the 2021 Boston Marathon get cancelled and the 2022 Boston Marathon gets moved to the fall

This thread is already not aging well.

Next on the chopping block:

This is Jim Kiler wrote:

They'll cancel the 2020/21 Olympics the third week of May, of this year.

79 days and counting till the opening ceremonies! Tokyo 2021, baby!

Replies to Olympic Insider (not sure how to comment within a quote...)

Olympic insider: “It won't be a postponement. It will be a cancellation.”

I agree that it won’t be a postponement. But I don't think cancellation will be announced in the first instance. "Postponement" will be used to show that Japan is still doing everything possible to make the Games happen. Cancellation will be announced later, jointly by the IOC and the JOC. The Japanese government will stay out of it.

Olympic insider: “I don't think it will be in July and not even June. I see this coming by the end of May. It might come in the next 2 weeks.”

I see your thinking here. My prediction may be too late on the date. When you think that training volunteers, transport for the athletes, all ceremonies, even weather forecasts have to be rehearsed and in place 7-10 days before the opening ceremony, probably early July is too late for an announcement. What the organizers do NOT want is for word to leak out: “Nobody’s doing ANYTHING! There ARE no Olympics!” So you may be right, late May, or certainly early June.

Another factor: (Not that the IOC has ever considered treating athletes, coaches and meet organizers – the core of the sport – to be a top priority), but announcing cancellation / postponement early will let European (and maybe North American) meet directors fill in the racing calendar and will let athletes and their coaches (and agents…) plan to peak for races when they thought they would be peaking for the Olympics. Track and Field is not going to stop during nine days mid-summer just because Thomas Bach forgot to let people know the Games were going to be cancelled.

COVID in Japan continues to worsen, but it continues to get worst at slower rates.

So that is good.

Still far, far safer to be in Japan than in the US, even though we have light years more vaccination available. So shameful to us, kudos to them .

05/06/21

78 days until the opening ceremonies.

Cases up 439% from March lows

Cases up 9% over last 7 days

(USA down 14% last 7 days)

Deaths up 200% from April lows

Deaths up 20% last 7 days

(USA down 7% last 7 days)

Per capita cases last 7 days: Japan ranked 104th worst (1st being worst)

(USA 53rd worst)

Per capita deaths last 7 days: Japan ranked 103rd worst (1st being worst)

(USA 64th worst)

Japan at least one shot: 2.2% of population

USA at least one shot: 44.4%

One point to add it to the equation is public opinion. Apparently the protests are rising in Tokyo.

https://www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/national/19283482.anti-olympics-petition-japan-gains-tens-thousands-signatures/

these below are interesting because it is Japanese media translated.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210505/p2a/00m/0na/021000c

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210429/p2a/00m/0na/009000c

If protests become too big to handle, the only possible response is cancellation.

Luckily for the IOC - this is Japan, and Japanese people are usually very polite and not prone to protests.

But, I don't know. I think it is not looking good and the next two weeks or so will be decisive.

State of Emergency Extended – from today’s Guardian.

You heard it first here. Japan is extending the coronavirus state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto and adding other cities to the list.

Economy minister Yasutoshi Nishimura explained that measures introduced last month that were due to end on 11 May had failed to stop a dramatic rise in infections.

Tokyo’s governor confirmed the extension which will probably run until the end of May, and can be further extended after that.

Osaka has run out of hospital beds and several people have died at home waiting for treatment.

An online petition calling for the Games to be cancelled has attracted almost 200,000 signatures in the space of a couple of days.

The petition was organized by Kenji Utsunomiya, a former candidate for Tokyo governor, who said “we strongly call for… using all available resources to stop the Olympics.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/07/japan-to-extend-covid-emergency-in-tokyo-as-olympics-loom

75 days until the opening ceremonies

Cases in Japan have fallen - that's good.

Deaths are rising quickly but deaths lag cases.

Turning point or pause?

//

Cases down 19% from early May highs

Cases flat over last 7 days

(USA cases down 19% over last 7 days)

Deaths up 235% from March lows

Deaths up 26% over last 7 days

(USA deaths down 7% over last 7 days)

Japan ranked 105th worst (1st being worst) in per capita cases over last 7 days.

USA ranks much worse: 55th

Japan ranked 95th worst (1st being worst) in per capita deaths over last 7 days

USA ranks much worse: 64th

Japan percent population with one shot: 2.4%

USA percent population with one shot 44.7%

agip wrote:

I've been tracking COVID in Japan daily:

Things are getting worse in Japan, but just in the last couple of days getting worse at a slower pace. Which is good.

Keep in mind that even after a surge in cases in Japan, and a large decline in the US, Japan still has far less covid than the US. They've done well. One of the better nations.

Japan: 132nd worst nation in terms of per capita deaths. Kudos.

US: 16th worst nation in terms of per capita deaths. Shameful.

The problem is that Japan has only vaccinated 1% of the population, and they have a ton of old, vulnerable people. The US has vaccinated over 40%. So the tables may have turned.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10540310

It helps when your country has a high level of pre-existing immunity from similar viruses. Of all places, East Asia is the safest place in the world to have an event like the Olympics, it would be retarded to cancel.

agip wrote:

75 days until the opening ceremonies. Cases in Japan have fallen - that's good.

Deaths are rising quickly but deaths lag cases. Turning point or pause?

All this is encouraging, for the Japanese. The major concern is not really that Japanese citizens will contaminate visiting athletes, coaches, and the "Olympic family" (how I hate that term). But rather how representatives from 196 countries around the world will infect the Japanese, and each other. In spite of its rather low infection rate, the Japanese medical system is already overwhelmed in many areas -- see my post above mentioning people dying of Covid at home because no beds available at hospitals. The entire Japanese medical profession, including public health officials, doctors and nurses, are very much against holding the Olympics, and have made statements like "we can't be responsible..." - which is a very strong condemnation in Japanese terms.

My read is that the JOC is already conferring with top Japanese political leaders, including the Prime Minister's office, to fix the date that the postponement announcement will be made.

agip wrote:

Japan percent population with one shot: 2.4%

How is that possible? That is pathetic.

in this context, interesting and sobering to realize that big city marathons almost inevitably cause excess deaths in their host cities. Blocking roads for 6 hours during the day delays health care and delays ambulance trips.

But we stage big city marathons anyway, despite knowing they will kill innocents caught in their wash.

Anyone knows about the financial impact for the IOC on cancelling the Games?

I mean, there were some news around the insurance aspect of the Games when they were first postponed in 2020.

Games were insured, did the IOC claim on the insurance?

If so - what happens if they cancel it now?

I mean NBC and other broadcasters spent billions on this

Who will be the one losing these billions if the Games are cancelled?

This is the key question to be answered. If the IOC is the one to lose billions - then it does make sense that these Games are apparently still going ahead. It was never about the Athletes.

In the end nobody wants to lose billions

And if the Games are not anymore insured because the IOC already claimed for the insurance during the postponement... then well. This coud be very ugly any direction it goes.

Also and i forgot to say Could it be that behind the scenes the Japanese government is pressured to go ahead because if they take the initiative to cancel, the IOC could put these billions on them???

Three recent polls with Japanese people on the fate of the Games, all with similar results - the majority of the Japanese people want the Games to be cancelled.

But the Japanese Government is not taking the initiative it seems. Their strategy seems to be highlighting the IOC as the ultimate decision maker.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/10/tokyo-olympics-poll-shows-60-of-japanese-people-want-games-cancelled

Olympics in the news (again). According to CNN today:

The Japanese Prime Minister told Parliament that it is not his decision to make on whether the Games go ahead, or not. It is up to the IOC he said.

Meanwhile, IOC President Thomas Bach’s visit to Japan to take part in the intermittent torch parade has been cancelled because of the Japan’s state of emergency, extended to the end of this month.

CNN reports that “less than 1% of the Japanese population has been fully vaccinated.” Earlier we had reports that less than 2% had received one shot.

From the Guardian article cited by A Regular Guy:

In Osaka prefecture more than 13,000 people with Covid-19 have been told to stay at home since hospitals are full.

STEVE THE ADDICT^^^^^^"""""""" wrote:

Maybe florida or Texas will host them if Japan chickens out. Hopefully Japan does not chicken out

Hopefully Japan does chicken out. Would love to see the Olympics (and the money from it) in the US.

definitely not looking good. I'd say there's 80% chances they are cancelled

If I had to guess, I'd say last week of May is when cancellation gets official.

At least from the source i've always used yesterday was the historical peak of cases in Japan

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

the perfect storm scenario is formed. Cases growing in Japan and India, public opinion against the Games, issues with the qualifications and now opposition voicing up against the Games

hard to imagine they will go ahead

https://www.insidesport.co/japanese-opposition-leader-says-tokyo-olympics-should-be-cancelled-as-indian-british-athletes-can-be-dangerous-for-japan/

0% chances that anywhere in the World can host the Olympic Games at this point rather than Tokyo Event Operations doesn't happen by magic, even if the infra-structure is mostly there. venue infra-structure is not the problem now event operations is

joed|rt wrote:

STEVE THE ADDICT^^^^^^"""""""" wrote:

Maybe florida or Texas will host them if Japan chickens out. Hopefully Japan does not chicken out

Hopefully Japan does chicken out. Would love to see the Olympics (and the money from it) in the US.