Need honest predictions and advice for 5k training

My advice is to run track this spring. If you want to be a competitive run, you need to do some competitive running.

Run track. If that is not possible try to get in an 8 week 5k cycle, TT, then base build the last 2 months of summer.

My advice would be to analyze your current fitness level first. The best way to train is off of current fitness first, running on goal paces will destroy your body (like a 6:00 miler running 5:00 miler paces so he can run 5:00, it won't happen).

There are a lot of 5k training plans out there, I would recommend Jack Daniels, which is often regarded as a good training plan. Here's a thread:

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5788948

Generally, you should start with easy days at 65-75% of maximum heart rate. Finish up with 4x100 meter strides (roughly) at a quick pace, full recovery. These easy days will be helpful to build up mileage. 30-45 minutes should do it. For reference, my mile shape right now is 5:28 and my easy pace is around 11 minutes per mile.

Add in tempos when you're feeling good and the weather's nice. 75-85% of maximum heart rate. 25-35 minutes should do the trick. Be sure to run a 15-25 minute warmup prior to (with dynamic stretching) and 15-25 minute cooldown following (keep it light). When you get home, roll out tight spots and recover well. Don't run 2 tempos in a row, instead throw an easy day in between.

Long runs are my favorite! 60-90 minutes is general consensus, start with 60 minutes and 5 more minutes each week should work just fine. One long run a week, usually (some plans state 2 long runs a week, which is perfectly fine!). I like to run mine on Saturday or Sunday. Leave time to recover after a long run, you will be vulnerable to injury directly after one. Recover well and get a lot of sleep. Try to get a buddy to run long runs with you.

Add in a 5k time trial every 2 weeks to get an idea of progression, and you should be good to go for base phase.

EXAMPLE WEEK

M: Tempo 25 minutes (75-85%) 15 min warmup/cooldown

T: Easy 30 minutes + 4x100 strides

W: 4x1 minute at VO2max (85-95%) recovery 2 minutes slow jog 15 min warmup/cooldown

T: Easy 30 minutes + 4x100 strides

F: 20 minutes easy + 6x200 meter @5k current pace recovery 200 meter jog

S: 60 minutes easy

S: 30 minutes easy or off

Mileage would be around 35-45 mpw I'm guessing.

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To answer your next question I would say that your goal is really within reach! I would post some race specific workouts for in-season, but it seems that my post is already really huge, and I'm sure you can find some elsewhere. For now, 5-8x1k repeats and 4-6x1200 repeats are what I will say.

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Finally, be sure to emphasize recovery. Sleep and loads of protein are just as important as the workouts themselves. Be sure to hydrate quite a bit in the few hours before a workout. Feel free to ask anymore questions if you need more help!

First of all, thank you so much for taking the time to give an in-depth reply. Everyone so far has said to just "run track" when I said in my original post that I am not able to. You also gave me a really good reply and thank you! I know you said that your post was already long, but anymore advice or workouts you can reccomend would be awesome! Thanks!

I am currently bulding my schedule on this google sheet. Here is the link. I prefer to run with a specific mileage in mind rather than running for time, it's just a preference. However, I scheduled in 5k time trials every 2 weeks like you suggested, and I saved the last 6 weeks before XC season for base building to get a final boost of miles in before the season starts.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16tKlTR4CfWeG-V_mZWxnCTdFeonQR3fColPWbkHreUM/edit?usp=sharing

So, how do you think I should structure my workouts in there? I want to make sure I am improving towards that sub 19 5k, so how do I plan workouts and such to make sure I progress to that goal? I run about 6-7 days a week usually, and I can handle about 2 fast sessions per week. I am also planning on increasing my long run by one mile every 2 weeks , and I will increase my easy runs every once in a while as well to make sure my aerobic system is improving as well.

You suggested 1k and 1200 repeats, but what kind of pace should I run those at, and when should I structure them in versus other workouts?

So, taking a look at your training plan thus far, I agree with the 5k time trials on Fridays (I hadn't specified, but you've figured it out). To be honest, I disagree with the fact that you have dedicated 6 weeks to "base building", as base building is the whole purpose of off season! It is really just a matter of interpretation, I suppose, but you still want to continue the cycle into the next season.

To answer your first question, pertaining to the structuring of workouts is a little tricky. In the beginning of pre-season, building of mileage is key, and too many fast workouts will burn out the runner. For this reason, I would prefer if you would update weekly, in case you are feeling bad after a particular workout, or not responding correctly. 6 days a week is perfect, some people feel more comfortable with 7 days a week, but it is just preference. 2 fast sessions is usually what I prefer as well. You mention increasing your long run by 1 mile every 2 weeks, I disagree with that, 1 mile for a long run can mean very different paces depending on the weather. For this reason, I would prefer that (even though you don't prefer timed runs) long runs be run on time. 5-10 minutes increased each week on your long run depending on how good you are feeling. Finally, you say that you want to increase your easy runs for your aerobic system. You need to be careful, easy runs should be reducing the stress on your body for the week, not increasing. However, you will be able to handle longer runs further down the road, so I will say that you can probably handle bumping up the mileage on an easy run whenever you feel good. Since you are a mileage guy, 0.5-1 miles at most from your last easy run.

Now as to the question of structuring your workouts (I realize I didn't answer), here is week number one:

M: 4 miles at 7:30-7:40 mile pace + 1 mile warmup/cooldown (so slow that you are barely using breath) do dynamic stretching after the warmup

T: 3.5 miles at 9:30-10:00 mile pace + 4x100 meter strides, full recovery

W: 4x1200 meter repeats at 6:36 pace (each 1200 in 5:57) with 0.25 mile jog recovery + 1 mile warmup/cooldown

T: 3 miles at 9:30-10:00 mile pace + 4x100 meter strides, full recovery

F: 2 miles at 9:30-10:00 mile pace + 4-6x200 meters at 6:43 mile pace (each 200 in 50 seconds) with 200 meters jog recovery

S: 60 minutes at 8:00-9:30 mile pace (anywhere from 6.3 miles to 7.5)

S: Off

Totals: 28.3-30 miles

Now, the mileage is pretty low, but don't let that get you down. You will be able to increase mileage as you get more in shape. Will you be updating your weekly training on here? Also, do you have watch with a heart rate monitor, because 65-75% of maximum heart rate is optimal for easy running days (which are important for recovery)?

I have a Garmin Forerunner 235, so yes, it keeps HR. However, I have never been a very good HR-based runner. I tried basing my runs on HR at the start of off season and I found that when I try to monitor my HR during runs, I obsess over it trying to get my HR within range and then for some reason my heart rate spikes way too high, but when I don't run off of HR I run aot 8 flat pace at a 130-150 hr, so roughly 60-70 percent of my HR max.

I like your reccomendation for the long runs, I am completely fine with doing a timed long run. I find that adding even one mile to a long run intimidates me (I love to run, but long runs can really get boring) so only adding 5 minutes or so will be a nice change of perspective. It will certainly make it easier, mentally speaking.

I never though about updating my schedule weekly, it's a really good idea. That way, I can kind of increase the pace of my faster workouts week-by-week depending on how I feel- and that also means I can add a lot more variety in my schedule.

Yes, I would love to keep updating my training on here if you would be up for giving me more advice and suggestions for weekly training. Once I finish a week, I could post how I felt during those workouts and get some advice on what kind of things to do for the next week, if you are up for that. Thanks!

Cool, I recently got into heart rate readings for easy runs and it is just my preference so that I know when I'm on the right pace. As long as you are in the right pace (which is a challenge for a lot of high schoolers), it's cool.

Yeah, I would be willing to help you out some more when you update the log, and I am sure there will be others who can help out as well. Good luck for this coming week, man!

Thanks, I really appreciate it. It's really cool of you to help out. I updated my spreadsheet so if you ever wanna check that out, I will be marking my average paces and how I felt so we can know what to shoot for next week. I'll update at the end of the week.

Hey, I didn't know you were struggling with your IT band! Anyway, good taking off the run and doing cross training! I notice you didn't specify easy day paces, which is fine. Just make sure nothing faster than 8:40 pace on easy days, you want to keep them easy for sure.

Ask your coach for advice.

You definitely can, I went from a 20:04 my Sophmore year, to a 18:23 around mid junior year. I wouldn't recommend skipping track, I find a lot of benefit to running it. One of my friends managed to move from 19:56 down to sub 16 in the 5k and 6:14 to 4:39 in the mile because of some crazy training during track. If you do end up skipping track I'd recommend doing high mileage and more speed as you get closer to the XC season