Hello, I am a high school cross country runner. I am currently in my junior year, and as I am not doing track this year, I want to begin training for my final cross country season. I have not taken running very seriously in the past, but I have become more into it this past year and have become a mostly consistent off-season runner.
I need some advice, though, and I also need some real, honest predictions. Here's the scoop:
I want to run a 18:45 5k by the start of my cross country season, which starts in mid august, roughly 14-15 weeks away. If I can do that, then I am confident I can (maybe) drop into the low 18's during XC season and qualify for state for my last season. However, that goal is a bit ambitious. Here's why. My PR's are
Mile-6:08
5k-20:55
Both of these were at the end of last XC season in October. I haven't raced since then, but I have kept in shape. If I had to guess, I think I could run a 20:30's for the 5k right now. Knowing this, I need some honesty here. Is my goal of reaching the 18's by mid-August possible? I am willing to work hard to improve no matter what, but I just need to know. My goal is to run at the state meet but that requires, at the very slowest, an 18:15 for a regionals seed.
Even running a sub 19 by the start of the season would be awesome, as I would have the whole season to continue getting better and faster and dropping my times.
Here are some current stats on me. I am running about 30-35 mpw at a 7:50-8:15 pace, depending on the day. Long run is usually 7 miles.
So, I need a real answer here. I want to run 18:45 for 5k by the start of the season, and I am in roughly 20:30 shape right now. Is there any possibilty I could achieve that goal? And if so, how would I go about doing that, given my current fitness level? What kind of mileage should I work towards, what kind of workouts would help me out, etc...
Any and all help is appreciated, and please don't hesitate to tell me that my goal is probably not going to happen.