2021 Boston Marathon cutoff predictions

MelRnr wrote:

Mike_Milburys_Shoe wrote:

I wonder if that's why we have yet to hear anything about how many applicants there were

I thought we never hear the total number of applicants until after the cutoff is determined and released. I think we would get 1st week application numbers for those greater than 5 minutes under who registered in the 1st week, but the final total number wasn't released until they figured out how many less than 5 minutes squeakers registered in week 2.

Since this registration is only 1 week with every qualifier registering in that week, it seems normal that they wouldn't release numbers until the cutoff is determined.

In the 6 Boston's I've run, I qualified by over 5 minutes in all but one. I received acceptance email 2 days after registering in all of them, except the one I "squeaked" into which was 9 days.

I assume the fastest qualifiers should be getting acceptances around now (Wednesday).

joay11 wrote:

MelRnr wrote:

I thought we never hear the total number of applicants until after the cutoff is determined and released. I think we would get 1st week application numbers for those greater than 5 minutes under who registered in the 1st week, but the final total number wasn't released until they figured out how many less than 5 minutes squeakers registered in week 2.

Since this registration is only 1 week with every qualifier registering in that week, it seems normal that they wouldn't release numbers until the cutoff is determined.

In the 6 Boston's I've run, I qualified by over 5 minutes in all but one. I received acceptance email 2 days after registering in all of them, except the one I "squeaked" into which was 9 days.

I assume the fastest qualifiers should be getting acceptances around now (Wednesday).

But I think that is because in normal years there are different registration periods depending on if you are -20, -10, -5, or less than -5. In normal years the fast times are verified quickly and the less than 5 people sweat it out a while. This time they lumped everyone together into one registration period, so I think we will all know at the same time.

MelRnr wrote:

joay11 wrote:

In the 6 Boston's I've run, I qualified by over 5 minutes in all but one. I received acceptance email 2 days after registering in all of them, except the one I "squeaked" into which was 9 days.

I assume the fastest qualifiers should be getting acceptances around now (Wednesday).

But I think that is because in normal years there are different registration periods depending on if you are -20, -10, -5, or less than -5. In normal years the fast times are verified quickly and the less than 5 people sweat it out a while. This time they lumped everyone together into one registration period, so I think we will all know at the same time.

This is correct. The BAA explicitly said they won't be sending out acceptance/denial info until "early May." This plus the lumped registration tells me it'll be simultaneous notifications.

Not sure if it is a good a good sign, today I was refunded with the registration fee. Cutoff time 07 min and 07 sec

flr wrote:

Not sure if it is a good a good sign, today I was refunded with the registration fee. Cutoff time 07 min and 07 sec

Probably irrelevant. You shouldn't have been charged in the first place. It could have been some kind of temporary charge to your account.

flr wrote:

Not sure if it is a good a good sign, today I was refunded with the registration fee. Cutoff time 07 min and 07 sec

Oh for Pete's sake, please tell me you are a troublemaking troll.

This ussually happens, you see the pending transaction when you register, then it goes away on your online banking. It is not a sign for acceptance or rejection. It has more to do with your bank.

I’m 15 minutes under and had a 250 charge by the BAA last week. Charge recently just went away. I doubt the cut off is that high so I’m also assuming it’s your bank.

Danelectro wrote:

flr wrote:

Not sure if it is a good a good sign, today I was refunded with the registration fee. Cutoff time 07 min and 07 sec

Oh for Pete's sake, please tell me you are a troublemaking troll.

For real lol take this junk to the FB threads lmao

That means nothing. They originally do a pending charge to make sure it’s the correct billing. I know someone who has a 25 minute buffer whose was refunded, so yeah.

They must not do that for everyone because I did not get a charge. Registered on 4/21 at -21

The google search thing is pretty interesting, but I don't think there's any way there wouldn't be a cutoff. You think demand dropped so low that out of the 27k who applied in 2020 plus whoever ran a qualifying time from September 2019 til March 2020, that well over 10,000 of those people just...won't register for 2021?

Brian MF Sell wrote:

The google search thing is pretty interesting, but I don't think there's any way there wouldn't be a cutoff. You think demand dropped so low that out of the 27k who applied in 2020 plus whoever ran a qualifying time from September 2019 til March 2020, that well over 10,000 of those people just...won't register for 2021?

How many of those will slide into the virtual? Could it be 10,000? More? Less?'

Brian MF Sell wrote:

The google search thing is pretty interesting, but I don't think there's any way there wouldn't be a cutoff. You think demand dropped so low that out of the 27k who applied in 2020 plus whoever ran a qualifying time from September 2019 til March 2020, that well over 10,000 of those people just...won't register for 2021?

Of course everything has profoundly changed since then, making it pretty hard to predict. But I do find it odd on google trends, it appears the interest was so low, that I'm not sure the data is accurate or the scale of the data is logarithmic as opposed to linear, not sure. The graph show a magnitude of "100" for Sept, 2019 and a "41" for Apr, 2021. I would find it hard to believe that there was only "41%" of the interest that there was in 2019.

Brian MF Sell wrote:

The google search thing is pretty interesting, but I don't think there's any way there wouldn't be a cutoff. You think demand dropped so low that out of the 27k who applied in 2020 plus whoever ran a qualifying time from September 2019 til March 2020, that well over 10,000 of those people just...won't register for 2021?

Agreed. No way 1/3 of people who normally would register for Boston decided not to this year.

alkfjkdaj wrote:

Brian MF Sell wrote:

The google search thing is pretty interesting, but I don't think there's any way there wouldn't be a cutoff. You think demand dropped so low that out of the 27k who applied in 2020 plus whoever ran a qualifying time from September 2019 til March 2020, that well over 10,000 of those people just...won't register for 2021?

Agreed. No way 1/3 of people who normally would register for Boston decided not to this year.

Unless a huge amount are going virtual, maybe?

GettingFasterDude wrote:

alkfjkdaj wrote:

Agreed. No way 1/3 of people who normally would register for Boston decided not to this year.

Unless a huge amount are going virtual, maybe?

Maybe it's just me but I can't see the virtual appealing to anyone but runners who know they will never meet the qualifying standards but want to "run" Boston, so mostly people who would never apply for the in-person race.

Interesting note, and I agree web interest seems down for Boston overall.

But to those trying to multiply out expected registrations, google trends normalizes searches over time, so it does not mean only 40% of the total searches last time. It is a share of total searches. So if last week there were more total google searches overall than a typical September registration, that could explain part of the decrease, which would make since with some of the news stories last week and people looking up vaccine information. Also probably why this hasnt had a strong correlation with registration in past years.

obviously not live yet but sometime in May ?

https://registration.baa.org/2021/cf/public/iframe_EntryLists.cfm