I have one more thought here, at least for now, that I want to toss out. When I was getting into the sport in the '60s and '70s we talked a lot about being "tough." That seems to have fallen out of vogue now, I suspect because it's intangible and very hard to quantify and runners now really like to have numbers to measure and guide them.
But when you're in a race where you are seriously looking for a good time and/or place it is unlikely that everything will be ideal. Yeah EVERY now and then it will be but normally races serve you a measure of adversity that's beyond your control. I think this has a lot to do with why so many people's racing falls short of their best workouts, i.e, you have a lot more control over circumstances around your training than you do in races as a rule.
So I think there is a lot of value in racing and in doing it in less than ideal circumstances. Some of that value is that you'll develop the mental toughness that you'll need to deal with the adversity that will likely come in some measure even in better racing conditions. Truthfully, one individual race is not going to have much affect on this whole process. But I think you should recognize that overall doing a race like this has potential benefits for you in future races. Plus, think how cheesed off you'll be if the forecast is wrong and conditions are good.